1/5/21 NBA Bet Tips
Toronto Raptors -2.5 (-115) vs. Golden State Warriors (-115)Wager: 1 unit (win would pay 1.87) The Toronto Raptors are slowly, but surely figuring out that their team is much better with a heavily utilized Chris Boucher. While Aron Baynes is not a bad player, he is just an odd fit in the frontcourt next to Pascal Siakam and Boucher’s fluidity, shot-blocking ability and shooting range are much more valuable. The Warriors are looking better of late but it is on the back of Stephen Curry playing at a nuclear level. Toronto’s backcourt will cause trouble for him with no outlet for help. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre have been embarrassing. OG Anunoby and Norm Powell should have little trouble guarding the perimeter. -2.5 is too low for a Toronto team figuring things out and with Kyle Lowry healthy/active.
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (-115) vs. Minnesota TimberwolvesWager: 1 unit (win would pay 1.87) These two teams just played each other to overtime yesterday. Fatigue can be considered roughly equivalent on both ends and each has a major contributor out (DeRozan for Spurs, Towns for Wolves). The Spurs have much more depth to make up the loss in their backcourt relative to what the Wolves have in their front court. Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker IV, Keldon Johnson and Patty Milles will be a handful for D’Angelo Russell and company to limit given that the Wolves have the worst defensive net rating in the NBA this season. Losing KAT is really the nail in the coffin. Both teams are going to score plenty today but the Spurs should be capable enough in taking a significant lead early. 3.3 jumped up from 2.5 recently but still be too low.
New York Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs. Denver NuggetsWager: 1 unit (win would pay 1.91)
Knicks-Nuggets OVER 213.5 (-115)Wager: 1 unit (win would pay 1.87) There probably is not much public belief in the Knicks just yet despite a record above .500. The Nuggets are coming off a game last night in Philadelphia and traveling for this back-to-back today. Despite a mediocre opponent in the 76ers backups which they dominated without a single starter hitting 30 minutes, the Nuggets will have more tired legs than the Knicks. New York’s clunky backcourt of Elfrid Payton and R.J. Barrett will have a solid matchup against the smaller Jamal Murray/Gary Harris combo. With Michael Porter Jr. still out of action, Will Barton will remain the starter for Denver and that is a much more palatable matchup for the Knicks’ on the wing. Nikola Jokic will be asked to shoulder a lot but should have the size advantage against either Julius Randle or Mitch Robinson. This edge is why it is probably better to take the points with New York rather than any money line action. 5.5 points is plenty of wiggle room for a low-key talented team playing cohesive ball. The Over is a great bet because of the mismatch in the frontcourt for both ends. Jokic will not be able to contain the Knicks’ spark plug in Randle and Randle cannot defend much, if at all so if he’s the lone big on the floor, Denver will have their way inside. The Knicks’ defensive rating might be 5th-best in the league, but they are not built to handle a Jokic-led offense. The Nuggets’ 5th-worst defensive rating will bode well for the Knicks offense in return. Kev Mahserejian is 7-4 (+6u) on his NBA betting picks in 2020-2021.
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