Jaguars Pick Trevor Lawrence No. 1 Overall In 2021 NFL Draft

Last Updated: May 5, 2021

The Jacksonville Jaguars pick Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft on Thursday night.

Jaguars Pick Trevor Lawrence No. 1 Overall In 2021 NFL Draft

The Jaguars shocked the world by selecting Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.


Although they never committed to Lawrence amidst the pre-draft process, the Jags selecting him was never really a doubt. Even Jaguars faithful had already been sending their future franchise quarterback wedding presents and donating to his charity ahead of Thursday night’s selection.

Since 2021, there have been eight signal callers drafted with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft including Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Joe Burrow.

Of those eight quarterbacks, three are with the same team that drafted them, two are starters in the league but on different clubs, another two have been retired and out of the league and one is competing for a starting job.

The most eye-popping stat from this group is the fact that there are only two Super Bowl appearances and zero championship wins.

While Lawrence might be the next big thing, a Super Bowl victory is not guaranteed.

The issue with a No. 1 pick is normally, the team drafting said player is in shambles. Hence, the reason why they have earned the top overall selection. However, in recent cases of Murray, Burrow, and now Lawrence, these teams have pieces in place for their new quarterback to succeed early.

Lawrence enters a Jacksonville organization that has talent, especially on offense. D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault are young and talented wideouts, while free-agent acquisition Marvin Jones is the trustworthy veteran of the group Lawrence can lean on.

The same can be said at running back with impending second-year UDFA stud James Robinson and the newly signed vet Carlos Hyde. As long as the Jaguars improve their offensive line in this draft as well, Lawrence can find success as a pro before the team ultimately does as a whole.

Trevor Lawrence 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

As I alluded to above, Trevor Lawrence is set up for fast success, offensively, in the NFL, which bodes well for his fantasy football outlook. If you were in on Joe Burrow last season, I would have similar aspirations for 2021’s hot new ride at the quarterback position.

There are two additional factors I am buying into when speaking in terms of Lawrence’s fantasy football success in 2021.

1. Jacksonville’s defense needs a lot of work.

Look for Lawrence to be trailing and playing within a negative game script, and/ or in shootouts, which equates to additional passing opportunities and fantasy production.

2. Lawrence plays in the AFC South.

It is a tough division. However, outside of the Colts, whose defense can play light’s out at times, the rookie signal-caller will also play the Titans and Texans twice a year. Both Tennessee and Houston’s defenses finished in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game in 2020 while not doing much to improve those units this offseason.

Trevor Lawrence Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

In dynasty rookie drafts, Trevor Lawrence should be one of the first players off the board. While roster construction and needs play a role, if you have a hole at quarterback, don’t veer from Lawrence. He is projected as a near-can’t-miss talent and could be utilized as an upside dynasty asset for the next 10 years, if you think that far ahead — you shouldn’t be.

If you are rostering Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Matt Ryan — or, if you lost Drew Brees this offseason — and you are picking inside the top three of your rookie draft, then Lawrence is a must-have. You may not need to start him right away — Brees managers would be the exception — but selecting Lawrence makes your veteran assets expendable to win-now teams.

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 Bet Tips With Trevor Lawrence

All Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 NFL Futures bets are provided by BetMGM. (New customers get a Second-Chance Bet of up to $600 by clicking here or using the code THEGAMEDAY.)

Jaguars Win Total

  • Over 6.5 (+100)
  • Under 6.5 (-120)

While the jaguars were a one-win team last season, they started a guy named Jake Luton at quarterback at one time amidst a 2020 season to forget. In 2020, however, Jacksonville will be a much-improved unit. If they can get a full 16 games out of Trevor Lawrence, I’d be inclined to take the Over on their 6.5 win total for the upcoming campaign.

On top of Lawrence, the Jaguars were also aggressive in free agency. What’s more, they are in the conversation to land Julio Jones if the Falcons, do, in fact, elect to trade the future Hall of Fame wideout who has some tread left on the tires.

If the stars align, the Jaguars will win seven games in a 2021 camping that added an extra regular-season game to the slate.

Let’s not forget the Jags play in the AFC South. They get the Texans and Titans twice. I mention the Titans because they have a horrendous defense and completely blew up their secondary this offseason. Lawrence should be able to exploit their defense and go head-to-head with Ryan Tannehill and his cast of pass-catchers that had been decimated by personnel departures in free agency.

Jaguars To Make Playoffs?

  • Yes (+350)
  • No (-450)

This is a cool no for me.

While I do see a word in which the Jaguars turn one win into seven if the ball bounces in their direction, a playoff berth in a tough AFC conference will be hard to fathom.

Let’s face it, while the Titans and Texans both had bottom 10 defense last season, so did Jacksonville, which will be their Achilles heel in 2021. Even if the Jags have a defense-heavy draft, it will take time for that unit to gel.

Jaguars To Win AFC South Division Title (+1200)

Throughout this article, I had mentioned that both the Titans and Texans have question marks. However, that doesn’t mean I am anointing the Jaguars to take a leap to a division title in the first year of the Trent Baalke/ Urban Meyer/ Trevor Lawrence era.

Barring another catastrophic year from Carson Wentz, the Colts should coast to a division title.

Jaguars To Win Super Bowl 56 (+12500)

In the esteemed words of Gorilla Monsoon, “Will you stop, Bobby?"

Trevor Lawrence 2021 Prop Bet(s)

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year

Trevor Lawrence (+225)

If Trevor Lawrence is as advertised, he will not only open the 2021 NFL season as the odds-on favorite to win the Associated Press Rookie of the Year honor, but he will surely win it. It is a quarterback’s league, after all.

Unless another rookie quarterback ultimately pops, Lawrence is the best bet to win the award as we stand. Hype and draft pedigree play a role here. What’s more, if Lawrence can lead the Jags to six or seven wins, it should be enough to lock Lawrence up for the award when it is all said and done.


Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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