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Falcons Saints Bet Tips for Week 11

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

The Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Falcons Saints Bet Tips.

All odds and lines from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

Falcons Saints Bet Tips

Falcons Saints Odds and Betting Lines

  • Against The Spread: Saints -5 (-110)/Falcons +5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Saints (-236)/Falcons (+185)
  • Total: 50.5 — Over 50.5 (-110)/Under 50.5 (-110)
  • Implied Team Totals: Saints 27.5, Falcons 22.5

The Falcons have won three of their past four games, including two straight. They will look to make it three consecutive victories facing off against the Saints on Sunday. Following a 1-2 start to the year, the Saints have ripped off six straight wins. They will look to make it seven sans Drew Brees for the foreseeable future.

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Falcons Saints Injury Report

Falcons

  • WR Calvin Ridley (foot), Questionable
  • DE Dante Fowler Jr. (hamstring), Out

Saints

  • LB Chase Hansen (hip), Questionable
  • QB Drew Brees (ribs), Out
  • WR Tre’Quan Smith (concussion), Questionable
  • LB Kwon Alexander (ankle), Questionable


Falcons Saints Players to Watch

Saints QB Jameis Winston is slated to make his first start of the 2020 season. The former Buccaneers QB1, Winston has been stuck behind Drew Brees in a backup role this season. However, with Brees sidelined indefinitely, it is go-time for Winston.

In his career, Winston has played in nine games against the Falcons and has been exceptional in those encounters.

In each of his past seven games facing Atlanta as a member of the Buccaneers, Winston has thrown for at least 261 yards and two touchdowns, including three games with north of 300 passing yards and six games with 3+ scores.

Now as a member of the Saints, Winston will try his hand against Atlanta. While he is with a new team and a new system, his supporting cast is just as deadly. It is up to Winston to prove that he can still light up the Falcons while still showing the league he is a legit NFL starter.

UPDATE 11/20/20: Head coach Sean Payton has chosen Taysom Hill to start in Week 11 instead of Jameis Winston. Read this for more.

Falcons WR Julio Jones has crushed the Saints for most of his career. (USA TODAY Sports)

Falcons WR Julio Jones has been a Saints slayer throughout the course of his future Hall of Fame career.

Jones has played in 16 games against New Orleans and has compiled a 94/1482/3 stat line. Although he’s only scored three times against them, his reception and yardage totals are off the charts.

In 13-of-16 games, he’s had 75+ receiving yards, including six games going over 100 yards.

With Calvin Ridley up in the air to play, Jones should be busy on Sunday.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBwtNfPwaY

Falcons Saints Weather Report

The weather at Mercedes-Benz Superdome does not matter in this matchup because it is a dome stadium.

The temperature is forecast at 74 degrees Fahrenheit at the time of kickoff.


Falcons Saints Bet Tips

BEST BET: Under 50.5 (-110)

When you see that the Falcons and Saints are playing each other, you automatically think there will be ample points scored and the Over is a lock. However, that is not the case.

Not only is Drew Brees sidelined, but Payton installing Hill under center means that the offense will probably move more slowly, which probably limits the scoring upside.

The Under is 4-2 in Atlanta’s past six games.

The Under is 5-1 in the past six games between the Saints and Falcons.

The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Saints and Falcons in New Orleans.

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CONSIDER: Falcons (+185)

While both the Saints and Falcons are entering Sunday on six and two-game win streaks respectively, I believe Atlanta will be the club that maintains their winning ways.

While we know the Saints can tread water with Teddy Bridgewater as we saw in 2019, we have no idea how they will fare with Hill. Bridgewater is more of a game-manager, while Hill is run-first.

I’ll take the quarterback I can trust. That is Matt Ryan.

The Falcons are 4-4 in their last eight games versus the Saints.

PASS: Saints (-236)

For the same reasons why I like the Falcon’s moneyline, I don’t like the Saints.’

Moreover, I also don’t think they are a lock to win the game with Hill taking snaps. Sure, the Saints are the better team on paper, but a lot can change with a new quarterback under center, especially an unproven passer like Hill.

The Falcons have also played well under interim head coach Raheem Morris and are 3-1 in their past four games.

Anthony Cervino is 21-21-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.

Prepare Week 11 betting tips and plan

Author

Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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