Falcons Chiefs Bet Tips for Week 16

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

The Atlanta Falcons visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Falcons Chiefs Bet Tips. Odds and lines from Falcons-Chiefs picks are from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Falcons Chiefs Bet Tips

Odds & Betting Lines for Falcons-Chiefs Picks

  • Against The Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)/Falcons +10.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-551)/Falcons (+410)
  • Total: 53.5 — Over 53.5 (-121)/Under 53.5 (+100)
  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 32, Falcons 21.5

This is one of the games on the slate that is virtually meaningless. The best storylines coming out of this game is the 2021 NFL Draft positioning for the Falcons.

For the Chiefs, it looks like they have the top seed in the AFC locked up barring a two-game slide to end the season. However, they are not the Steelers. Kansas City will be fine.

After it looked like the Falcons were turning their season around under interim HC Raheem Morris, they have lost four of their past five games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are winners of nine consecutive games following their only loss of the year way back in Week 5 to Las Vegas.

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Falcons-Chiefs Key Injuries


Falcons WR Julio Jones has dealt with his lingering hamstring injury for the better part of 2020, most recently, missing three out of the team’s past five games since Week 11 because of it, including two straight.

While the Falcons have nothing to play for, it does not look like the team has an interest in shutting Jones down for the final two games. In fact, it does not appear like Jones wants to be shut down either. Jones wants to play, something you have to admire if you love the game.

Last week, Jones had a PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection in his injured hamstring which should expedite his healing. While Jones has a shot to play this week, there are no guarantees.


Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered ankle and hip injures in last week’s win over the Saints. As a result with the Chiefs having little to play for, Edwards-Helaire will likely be shut down for the final two games of regular season play.

Currently, the Chiefs have a stranglehold on the first-round bye, which gives the rookie back plenty of time to get healthy. Le’Veon Bell will start in Edwards-Helaire’s absence.

Last week, Bell went for 76 total yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Bell’s touches and yards were both season-bests for the once prominent rusher.

Falcons Chiefs Players to Watch

The Falcons’ offense had struggled without Julio Jones this season — until last week. Despite the loss, Matt Ryan had a sensational game sans his future Hall of Fame wideout. Ryan threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns. It was his most yards since Week 7 and his most touchdowns in a game since Week 9.

If Jones plays, the Falcons could surely use his services facing a Kansas City defense allowing the 10th fewest passing yards per game (230.1). If Jones is ruled out, expect Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage to step into larger roles, but they may not be enough.

Falcons Chiefs Bet Tips and Falcons-Chiefs Picks: Matt Ryan thrived in Week 15 without Julio Jones; could he do it again?
Falcons-Chiefs Picks: Will Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan thrive again if Julio Jones has to sit out Week 16? (USA TODAY Sports)

Since the Falcons can’t run the ball, they need all-hands-on-deck at pass-catcher, which means Hayden Hurst needs to have a big outing.

While Hurst has struggled in the second half, he finally scored in last week’s loss. It was his first touchdown since Week 6 while posting fewer than 48 yards in five straight games. The Chiefs are surrendering the sixth-most yards to tight ends (809) in 2020.

The Falcons are giving up the second-most passing yards per game (287.7) while letting up 15 touchdowns to wide receivers and nine to tight ends. This plays right into Kansas City’s hands-on offense.

The triplets of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce could ball out against the Falcons.

Kelce has 8+ receptions and 68+ yards in seven straight games since Week 8, including five games going over 109 yards. He also has scored a touchdown in five different games in that time span and has one score in three straight.

Hill is also ridiculous. Hill has gone for 79+ yards in five of his past seven games since Week 8 with 12 total touchdowns since Week 7, scoring at least one time in 7-of-8 outings.

Falcons-Chiefs Weather Report

The weather at Arrowhead Stadium calls for an overcast afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 1% chance of precipitation.

The temperature is set at 49 degrees Fahrenheit with 11 mph winds blowing North.

Falcons-Chiefs Picks & Bet Tips

BEST BET: Over 53.5 (-121)

Of all the Falcons-Chiefs picks to make, this one is quite easy. This matchup should rain points. While the Falcons are scoring the fifth-most points per game (25.4), the Chiefs are scoring at the second-highest rate in the NFL (31.1).

Meanwhile, the Falcons are allowing the 15th-most PPG (25.2) while the Chiefs are allowing the eighth fewest (22.1).

Although the Atlanta offense has struggled at times this season, they still have ample talent to pop. The Falcons have dropped 27+ points four times in their past 10 games, including one game in the 30s and two in the 40s.

And while the Kansas City defense is stingy at times, they have given up 27+ points in four of their past six games, including in each of their past two games with two games in the 30s earlier in h in this time period.

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined, the Chiefs may struggle to run the ball, which means we will see a lot of Patrick Mahomes and his aerial attack. They will hang points in their sleep.

Atlanta is no different. They have struggled mightily to run the football this season. This game will me Mahomes versus Matt Ryan. This game will feature heavy points.

The Over is 4-2 in the Chiefs’ past six games.

The Over is 1-4 in the Falcons’ past five games, hitting last week following four straight games with the total going Under.

The Over is 3-0 in the past three meetings between the Chiefs and Falcons.

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CONSIDER: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)

The Chiefs should dominate this football game. While teams have played them close of late — each of Kansas City’s past six games, all wins, have been decided by fewer than six points — this is a total mismatch.

The Chiefs need to make a statement with two games left in the regular season. Sure, they are 13-1, but they can not let inferior teams play them close. The need to blow this one open.

The Chiefs are 1-5 against the spread in their past six games, covering last week following five straight failures.

The Falcons are 4-3 ATS in their past seven games and 2-3 in their past five, covering last week.

PASS: Chiefs (-551)

With Moneyline odds this large, you have to wager a lot to win a little. I rather parlay the Kansas City Moneyline with some player props in the game if you want some action on it. The Chiefs Moneyline will be the lock of the parlay.

Anthony Cervino is 55-44-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.

Prepare Week 16 betting tips and plan

After studying Falcons Chiefs Bet Tips and Falcons-Chiefs Picks:


Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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