Atlanta Falcons (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Falcons-Buccaneers Bet Tips. Odds and lines from Falcons-Buccaneers picks are from PointsBet, current as of Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.
Falcons-Buccaneers Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Falcons-Buccaneers Picks
- Against The Spread: Buccaneers -6.5 (-105)/Falcons +6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (-285)/Falcons (+225)
- Total: 50.5 — Over 50.5 (-115)/Under 50.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 28.5, Falcons 22
Ravens-Bengals Picks overview: While the Buccaneers have nothing to play as they have their postseason Wild Card spot locked up, HC Bruce Arians told the press that they are playing win the game and are electing not to rest their starters.
While they do employ elder NFL players that include Antonio Brown, Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski, just to name a few, the Buccaneers have been on fire since their bye. They have won three straight games since their Week 13 off-week while their offense and defense look the best they have as a collective unit since early this season. Why take them out of rhythm?
The Falcons have lost five of their past six games, including four straight.
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Falcons-Buccaneers Key Injuries
Falcons
Falcons WR Julio Jones has missed the past three games with a hamstring injury and has yet to practice this week. It looks like there is a good chance the team shuts down their elite wideout for the season finale as well.
With Jones likely sidelined, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage will continue to operate as the starters in two-wide sets.
RB Ito Smith is also on the injury report as he was limited at practice on Wednesday with ailing ribs. While it is a good sign that he has at least gotten in a limited session, his presence is moot.
The Falcons’ backfield is amongst one of the worst in the NFL. And while Smith has been the best of the trio that includes the once elite Todd Gurley and preseason wonder Brian Hill, no matter who leads them in touches, they will be hard-pressed to move the football facing one of the league’s elite defenses in stuffing the run.
Buccaneers
Earlier in the week, the Buccaneers activated RB Ronald Jones from the reserve/ COVID list. However, while he was removed from the COVID list, he was a limited participant at Wednesday’s practice with a finger injury. Remember, Jones underwent a procedure to repair his broken pinkie finger in mid-December.
Despite the limited practice report, Jones is expected to play in Week 17, which is good news for Tampa Bay. Leonard Fournette, Jones’ primary backup, is dealing with an injury to his abdomen. While Fournette should be ok to play, he will return to his backup role with the starter now predominantly healthy and ready to end the year strong.
Falcons-Buccaneers Players to Watch
With Julio Jones likely out with a hamstring injury and Atlanta’s inability to run the football, they need another piece to step up not named Calvin Ridley. This opens the door for Hayden Hurst, who has had an erratic but productive season in year-one with the Falcons.
Hurst has been quiet in the second half, but in his past two games, he has made an impact, scoring a touchdown in each outing. The first of the two, which came in Week 15 against Tampa Bay, was his first score since Week 6, snapping a seven-game scoring drought.
Hurst has a single-game season high of 72 receiving yards in 2020, which came in Week 2. In 13 games since that Week 2 outing, Hurst has managed fewer than 68 yards in every game, going for fewer than 21 yards six times.
Hurst will look to end the year strong facing a Tampa Bay defense allowing the seventh-most receptions (81), the 17th most yards (791), and the fourth most touchdowns (8) to enemy tight ends in 2020.
Hurst dropped a 4/21/1 line on the Buccaneers back in Week 15.
Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski has played well despite a rocky start to 2020. In 10 games since Week 6, Gronkowski has accumulated 100+ yards or scored a touchdown seven times, scoring seven total touchdowns in that period.
In three games since Tampa’s Week 13 bye in which the Buccaneers have played their best football as a team, especially on offense, since the first half of the season, Gronkowski has scored in two of those three games with three total touchdowns. He scored twice last week in a rout of the Lions.
The Falcons have given up the second-most touchdowns (10) to tight ends in 2020.
Back in Week 15 against Atlanta, the Falcons held Gronkowski to a 3/29/0 stat line on seven targets.
Falcons-Buccaneers Weather Report
The weather at Raymond James Stadium calls for a mostly cloudy afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 5% chance of precipitation. Light rain in the morning is expected.
The temperature is set at 67 degrees Fahrenheit with 10 mph winds blowing Northwest.
Falcons-Buccaneers Picks & Bet Tips
BEST BET: Buccaneers (-285)
I don’t love the (-285) Moneyline odds for Falcons-Buccaneers picks, but it is the only wager I trust out of this game. The Buccaneers have come out of their Week 13 bye hot, winning each of their past three games. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost four straight games and five of their past six.
Once again, the Falcons are expected to be down Julio Jones (hamstring). While they have played well without him in the past two games, Atlanta’s offense has been horrendous without their stud receiver for the majority of the games that he has missed or has been limited in preceding Week 15.
While the Falcons had a hefty lead on the Buccaneers entering the third quarter of their Week 15 meeting, the Tom Brady-led Tampa offense got back into the game and ultimately pulled out the win.
Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Falcons, including the Super Bowl.
The Buccaneers are 2-1 straight up against the Falcons in their past three meetings.
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CONSIDER: Over 50.5 (-115)
Although I like the Over in this game, I don’t trust it enough to make it my Best Bet.
While the Over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between these two teams, hitting in five straight, this game could go either way. At any point, the Buccaneers can pull their starters, which would not bode well for the Over.
Still, assuming everyone plays a full game, the Over should hit comfortably, barring a change in the weather.
The Over is 1-5 in the Falcons’ past six games, failing to hit last week.
The Over is 3-3 in the Buccaneers’ past six games, failing to hit last week.
If both defenses show up to play, this game will trend toward the Under. This is a risky wager to make.
PASS: Buccaneers -6.5 (-105)
I am passing on the against the spread wager at (-6.5). While I do believe the Buccaneers will win the game, they ultimately have nothing to play for.
Although Bruce Arians told the press that the team will play to win and that they won’t rest their starters, should things go array, the veteran head coach can elect to pull his guys at any time.
I am not in love with the Moneyline odds at (-285), but it is my Best Bet for a reason. I rather wager something I trust and take a hit on the payout than risk something that has a wide range of outcomes.
The Buccaneers are 2-3 ATS in their past five meetings with the Falcons, failing to hit in each of their past two matchups, including Week 15’s win.
Anthony Cervino is 61-50-2 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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