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Dolphins Broncos Bet Tips for Week 11

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

The Miami Dolphins visit the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Dolphins Broncos Bet Tips.

All odds and lines from PointsBet, current as of Saturday at 6:30 a.m. ET.

Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)

Dolphins Broncos Bet Tips

Dolphins Broncos Odds and Betting Lines

  • Against The Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-115)/ Broncos +3.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Dolphins (-200)/Broncos (+170)
  • Total: 45.5 — Over 45.5 (-110)/Under 45.5 (-110)
  • Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 24.5, Broncos 21

Following a 1-3 start to the year, the red-hot Dolphins have won five straight games. They will attempt to make it six in a row with a win in Denver over the Broncos on Sunday who may be without their starting quarterback, Drew Lock. If Lock sits, Brett Rypien will get the start against one of the league’s most opportunistic defenses.

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Dolphins Broncos Injury Report

Dolphins

  • RB Matt Breida (hamstring), Questionable
  • LB Kyle Van Noy (hip), Questionable
  • WR Preston Williams (foot), Out

Broncos

  • LB Mark Barron (hamstring), Questionable
  • OL Demar Dotson (groin), Questionable
  • QB Drew Lock (ribs), Questionable
  • OL Jake Rodgers (shoulder), Questionable


Dolphins Broncos Players to Watch

Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed is slated atop the Miami running back depth chart with Myles Gaskin sitting out yet another game — he is still on injured reserve with a knee injury.

And while Matt Breida is expected to return from a three-game absence with a hamstring injury, Ahmed performed well enough in each of the past two games, which consequentially, were the first two games he’s been active all season long.

In Ahmed’s first action back in Week 9, he rushed for 38 yards on seven carries. His 5.4 yards per carry average that game showed the Dolphins coaching staff enough to feautre him in last week’s win over the Chargers and the unknown rookie failed to disappint.

Ahmed rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries while adding a five-yard reception to his totals.

While Breida should be involved, it will likely be another game of Ahmed leading the charge. He will get a favorable matchup facing a Denver defense that has regressed since opening the year strong.

After allowing only one touchdown to running backs in the first four games of the year, the Broncos have surrendered seven total scores to enemy backs in five games since Week 6.

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has had a solid year in his rookie campaign. While he has yet to fully emerge as the top-end wideout Denver thought they were getting, drafting him 15th overall in April’s NFL Draft, he has flashed, especially in his past three games.

Dolphins Broncos Bet Tips: Jerry Jeudy is becoming true impact player for Denver as rookie
Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has at least 8 targets in each of his past 3 games. (USA TODAY Sports)

In the three outings since Week 8, Jeudy has drawn 8+ targets, including two games north of 10. His 32 targets in that three game time span are his most in a three game stretch this season.

He’s also had 4+ receptions and 68+ yards in all of those games. However, in his best showing of the year thus far, Jeudy accumulated a 7/125/1 stat line on 14 targets. They were season-highs across the board.

Jeudy will attempt to give Denver a fighting chance this week facing a Miami defense allowing the 13th most passing yards per game (243.8) and the fourth-fewest touchdowns (8) to the position.

It won’t be easy for the highly-touted rookie though. He is expected to draw Byron Jones in coverage. Jones is the 18th-best corner according to Player Profiler.

If you don’t know how good Jones is, go ask the Cowboys. They miss him.


Dolphins Broncos Weather Report

The weather at Broncos Stadium at Mile High calls for a foggy afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 0% chance of precipitation.

The temperature is forecast at 44 degrees Fahrenheit with 2 mph winds blowing South.


Dolphins Broncos Bet Tips

BEST BET: Dolphins -3.5 (-115)

Miami is the better team. They are also red-hot, winners of five straight.

In those five consecutive wins, they covered the spread in all five games.

The Dolphins are also 7-2 against the spread in nine games played overall this season.

Miami is 3-1 ATS in their last four games versus Denver.

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CONSIDER: Dolphins (-200)

If you like Miami to win but you don’t think they will cover the 3.5 points, take the moneyline. The odds are slightly worse — (-200) versus (-115) — but you are also protecting your wager in case this game is closer than the bookmakers think it will be.

Miami is 2-2 straight up versus Denver in their past four games and 1-1 at Mile High in that time period.

The Broncos are 3-3 straight up in their past six games but 1-3 in their past four overall.

The Dolphins are 5-0 straight up in their past five.

PASS: Over 45.5 (-110)

I don’t like the Over/ Under total with these two teams. It is vastly unpredictable.

The Under was 3-2 in Denver’s first five games but the Over is 3-1 in their past four.

The Under was 3-1 in Miami’s first four games, but the Over is 3-2 in their past five and 2-0 in their past two.

Both team’s defenses can step up at any time, but they can also collapse and let up big points.

In a vacuum, I like the Over, but I don’t trust it.

Anthony Cervino is 21-21-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.

Prepare Week 11 betting tips and plan

Author

Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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