Miami Dolphins (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)
The Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Dolphins-Bills Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Dolphins-Bills picks are from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Dolphins-Bills Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Dolphins-Bills Picks
- Against The Spread: Bills -1 (-110)/Dolphins +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills (-115)/Dolphins (-105)
- Total: 44.5 — Over 44.5 (-110)/Under 44.5 (-110)
- Implied Team Totals: Bills 22.75, Dolphins 21.75
Dolphins-Bills Picks overview: While the Bills have the AFC East clinched, they are still playing for postseason seeding. Meanwhile, the Dolphins must win to get in. Otherwise, they will need help to advance. The Dolphins are 4-1 in their past five games, winners of two straight while the Bills have been victorious in five consecutive outings.
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Dolphins-Bills Key Injuries
Dolphins
The Dolphins, who are in a must-win spot, could be down their top two receivers for Sunday’s matchup against Buffalo. WR Jakeem Grant suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s win over the Raiders and is already ruled out against the Bills.
Meanwhile, WR DeVante Parker, who missed each of the past two games with a hamstring injury, could play this week, but he is not a lock by any means. Parker has a career history of soft-tissue injures that have kept him on the shelf.
We already know that grant will not play, but if Parker also sits, Lynn Bowden Jr., Malcolm Perry, and Mack Hollins will act as the team’s top wideouts facing a suspect Bills secondary.
Bills
The Bills have one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL. However, entering the regular-season finale, they will more than likely be down two of their top three wideouts.
While the Bills activated WR John Brown from the injured reserve list (ankle), they immediately placed him on the reserve/ COVID list ahead of Monday night’s pummelling victory over New England. Although there is a shot that Brown can play in Week 17, the Bills could ultimately elect to hold him out until Wild Card weekend.
Furthermore, Buffalo’s chain-moving slot receiver, Cole Beasley, is doubtful to play versus the Dolphins with a leg injury suffered on Monday night. Considered week-to-week, Beasley is very much on the wrong side of an active designation on Sunday and is truly up in the air for the Wild Card round.
Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and TE Dawson Knox are all in line for an uptick in snaps and targets in Beasley and Brown’s absences. Since Week 12, Davis (3), Knox (3), and McKenzie (1) have a combined seven touchdowns.
Dolphins-Bills Players to Watch
Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki could be in line for a monster game in the 2020 season finale. With DeVante Parker (hamstring) up in the air to play and Jakeem Grant (ankle) already ruled out, Gesicki would be Miami’s most-reliable pass-catching playmaker on Sunday.
This is terrific news as the Bills’ have had issues containing tight ends all season long. Currently, the Bills are surrendering the sixth-most receptions (83), the fourth most yards (901), and the ninth most touchdowns (8) to enemy tight ends in 2020.
While Gesicki had been cold earlier in the year, he’s picked it up of late. In four games played since Week 12, Gesicki has scored four times in three of those games, failing to find the end zone last week. He’s also drawn 6+ targets in each of his past three games as well.
The Bills are in a similar spot as the Dolphins in terms of hurting at receiver. Buffalo will more than likely be down two of their top three wideouts this week.
While Cole Beasley will not play with a leg injury, there is a shot that the Bills activate John Brown from the COVID list in time to face Miami. Brown was previously on IR with an ankle. If both Beasley and Brown are indeed sidelined against the Dolphins, look for TE Dawson Knox to step up.
In five games since Week 12, Knox has scored three touchdowns. That Week 12 score was Knox’s first of the season. Touchdowns are not the only thing we are seeing an uptick from with Knox, however.
In four games since Week 13, Knox has drawn 4+ targets in each of those outings, including one game with seven (Week 14). Knox’s four Week 13 targets were the first time he’s seen that many opportunities this season. He’s seen fewer than three targets in every other game that he played.
The Dolphins have given up a 65/733/5 line to enemy tight ends in 2020.
Dolphins-Bills Weather Report
The weather at Bills Stadium calls for rain at the time of kickoff with a 72% chance of precipitation.
The temperature is set at 34 degrees Fahrenheit with 5 mph winds blowing North.
Dolphins-Bills Picks & Bet Tips
BEST BET: Dolphins (-105)
This game means more to the Dolphins, but it is also a significant one for the Bills. The Bills have the AFC East clinched, but if they win, they will also lock up the No. 2 seed over the Steelers. However if the Steelers win and the Bills lose, Pittsburgh would jump over Buffalo into the No. 2 seed. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers are electing to rest key starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, against the Browns, which bodes well for Buffalo’s chances to remain in the two seed no matter the outcome.
While Bills HC Sean McDermott eluded to the press that there is, in fact, a plan in place about how he will deploy his starters on Sunday, the head coach has yet to reveal his plans, and likely won’t, anytime soon, per reports.
For the Dolphins, if they win, they will lock up a Wild Card spot. Otherwise, if they lose, they will need help to get in.
Breaking down this game, I am giving a slight edge to the Dolphins. Not only do they need it more, but because the Steelers are resting players and more or less punting the season finale as well as any chance at the No. 2 seed — as long as the Browns take care of their business against Pittsburgh’s B-team — I can see a case in which McDermott pulls his key players, Josh Allen included, by halftime. Why keep Allen in harm’s way against a pestering Miami pass rush that is ninth in sacks (40)?
Matchup-wise, the Bills are allowing the 13th most rushing yards per game (122.9). They also give up a ton of production to tight ends. Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin is back and is on fire, coming off of a heroic Week 16 outing in which he torched the Raiders for 169 total yards and two scores. TE Mike Gesicki has also come on of late.
Look for the Dolphins to squeak out a postseason-clinching win on the road on Sunday.
The Dolphins are 1-4 straight up in their past five meetings with the Bills.
The Dolphins are 4-2 SU in their past six games, winners of two consecutive outings.
The Bills are 8-2 SU in their past 10 games, victorious in five straight.
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CONSIDER: Over 44.5 (-110)
Whether or not the Bills choose to rest their starters from the start, or they play some or most of the game, we should see enough points on the board to hit the Over. However, because of all the uncertainties, this is not my Best Bet.
While the Dolphins are the No. 1 team in points allowed (18.8), you can still score on this team, especially a Bills offense scoring the sixth-most points per game (29.7) in the NFL.
The Dolphins have allowed 25+ points in two of their past three games.
The Over is 4-4 in the Dolphins’ past eight games, but 2-4 in their past six. They hit the Over in two of their past three games, including last week.
The Over is 2-3 in the Bills’ past five games, failing to hit last week.
The Over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between the Bills and Dolphins, hitting in four straight.
Pass: Dolphins +1 (-110)
If you are wagering the Dolphins, you are better off taking their Moneyline, which currently sits with (-105) odds. They are slightly better. It is also a one-point spread. This one is an easy pass.
Anthony Cervino is 61-50-2 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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