Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) at Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Chiefs Dolphins Bet Tips. All odds and lines for Kansas City at Miami NFL picks are from PointsBet, current as of Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Chiefs Dolphins Bet Tips
Chiefs Dolphins Odds and Betting Lines
- Against The Spread: Chiefs -7.5 (+100)/Dolphins +7.5 (-121)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-351)/Dolphins (+265)
- Total: 49.5 — Over 49.5 (-105)/Under 49.5 (-115)
- Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 28.5, Dolphins 21
The Chiefs are rolling as winners of seven straight games. They will look to make it eight straight with a road victory over the Dolphins, who have won seven of their past eight.
The Dolphins are one game behind the Bills in the AFC East and need to upset the Chiefs on Sunday to gain ground as Buffalo gets an angry Steelers club at home.
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Chiefs Dolphins Key Injuries
Chiefs
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with a non-COVID-related illness. Although he was active for last week’s win over the Broncos, he did not record a single touch.
If Edwards-Helaire sits or is once again limited, Le’Veon Bell will handle the workload. Bell went for 55 yards on 13 touches in last week’s victory.
Dolphins
Dolphins G Ereck Flowers is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play on Sunday against the Chiefs. While Flowers was once considered a first-round bust with the Giants, he rejuvenated his career as a guard with the Dolphins. Pro Football Focus ranks Flowers as the 40th best guard on 711 snaps.
If Flowers sits, expect Adam Pankey or Michael Deiter to fill the void.
Chiefs Dolphins Players to Watch
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is essentially matchup-proof, but he will get a tough one on Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, especially at defending enemy tight ends.
The Dolphins’ defense is surrendering the ninth-fewest receptions (49), the sixth-fewest yards (471), and the fourth-fewest touchdowns to tight ends (4) in 2020.
Kelce, on the other hand, is the top tight end in most statistical categories including targets (110), receptions (82), yards (1114), and touchdowns (8).
Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin returned from a four-game absence due to a knee injury last week and picked up right where he left off. While he did not score against the Bengals, he hung 141 total yards on them on 23 touches.
While the Miami backfield could get healthier this week — Salvon Ahmed is close to returning from his shoulder injury — Gaskin is the unquestioned workhorse for the Dolphins.
Gaskin will get an exploitable matchup with the Chiefs on Sunday, whose defense is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (132.4) to enemy backs. If the Dolphins are going to have a shot to win this game, Gaskin must explode.
Chiefs Dolphins Weather Report
The weather at Hard Rock Stadium calls for a clear and sunny afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 0% chance of precipitation.
The temperature is forecast at 81 degrees Fahrenheit with 6 mph winds blowing SouthWest.
Chiefs Dolphins Bet Tips
BEST BET: Over 49.5 (-105)
While this game has Under written all over it, I like the Over to hit on Sunday. Normally, the Chiefs’ totals are in the 50s. Right now at PointsBet, the total for this game is 49.5. The money is trending toward the Under.
While the Chiefs are the No 2 team in points scored per game (30.8), the Dolphins are surprisingly 16th (25.3). Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense is surrendering the sixth-fewest PPG (21.2) while the Dolphins are yielding the second-fewest (17.7).
Despite the terrific defense on both ends, we can not ignore the fact that both offenses can score the football. We also know that both defenses are opportunistic and create turnovers that turn into points. The Chiefs are the top team with a (+11) turnover differential while the Dolphins are at (+7), good for third-best.
I see more of a shootout or a Chiefs’ blowout over a tough defensive battle as the stats suggest. While the Dolphins and Chiefs defenses do not give up a ton of points, they are 16th (355.2) and 17th (358.2) in total yards per game respectively. Where there are yards, points can be had, especially on the Kansas City end.
The saving grace for Miami’s offense is Myles Gaskin. As long as he can penetrate a weak Chiefs’ run defense, Tua Tagovailoa will have a much easier time finding open passing lanes.
The Over is 3-3 in the Chiefs’ past six games, but their past two matchups went Under.
The Over is 2-3 in Miami’s past six games with each of their past three hitting the Under.
CONSIDER: Dolphins +7.5 (-121)
While the Chiefs are the superior team, the Dolphins can play with anyone. While we have seen them play and win defensive struggles, they have also kept up or won higher-scoring affairs with the Chargers, Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals, while dropping 43 on the 49ers in a blowout win earlier in the year.
The Dolphins are 7-1 against the spread in their past eight games, covering in two straight.
The Chiefs have not covered the spread in each of their past four games. While they have won them all, their winning margin was by fewer than six points in those matchups. They even allowed Denver and Carolina to take them to the wire.
CONSIDER: Dolphins (+265)
Call me ballsy or stupid, but I think the Dolphins have a shot to upset the Chiefs. If you’ve read the above two blurbs on my best bet and my total considerations, you’ll see why I believe Miami will keep this close. And if it comes down to the wire, anything can happen. It is also a Miami home game, which helps due to the weather.
If the Chiefs continue to struggle to run the football and this Dolphins defense can pin their ears back and attack Patrick Mahomes while dropping the extra man in coverage, that defense could force a rare, but momentum-shifting turnover. If Tua Tagovailoa is special, this is the game that could make the early portion of his career and potentially solidify the starting job moving forward.
This is also a pivotal, must-have game for the Dolphins, who sit one game back from the Bills in the AFC East. Buffalo gets the Steelers at home this week. I don’t see Pittsburgh dropping two straight, which means a Miami win could put them tied with the Bills at 9-4 when Week 14 is all said and done.
Anthony Cervino is 41-35-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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