College Football Week 12 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 12

Last Updated: Nov 19, 2021

We did it again.

I say “we” because this is a team we’re building here together, and we’ve done some superb underdog hunting of late.

Last week’s installment of upset searches gave us Baylor. I loved the Bears in the first half (+3) and I also loved the value with the moneyline at +180. Not only did Baylor deliver the upset; it did so without much drama.

Virginia, on the other hand, didn’t follow the script. The unexpected scratch of QB Brennan Armstrong certainly changed the tune of that game. No excuses, although that was a pretty good one. Just a bad pick.

Overall, however, we are finding upsets each and every week, and with a loaded Week 12 slate on deck it’s time to do it again. Here are this week’s picks.

Please note that all CFB Week 11 odds and lines are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 18.

CFB Week 12 Upset: No. 10 Wake Forest (+4) at Clemson

This game, over the course of the 2021 season, has taken some dramatic turns.

By now we know that Clemson is a shell of its normal self. For whatever reason, Dabo Swinney’s team has been unable to muster up any offense this year. The losses of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne certainly play a role. But the Tigers have the nation’s No. 95th ranked scoring offense, which should never be the case with this program.

Offense isn’t the issue for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have the nation’s No. 2 ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 44 points a game. QB Sam Hartman, who has been superb and even played his way into the fringes of the Heisman discussion, is a big reason why.

I think Wake Forest’s offense, which is facing the best defense it will likely see all season, will generate enough issues for Clemson on the road. And after an offseason of remarkable hype, Clemson loses its fourth game of the year.

Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Clemson 23

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Under 56.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Clemson’s defense will present some issues. It still ranks No. 3 nationally. This will not look like most of Wake Forest’s games. It’ll be a grind.

Wake Forest Moneyline (+165) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

So, the nation’s No. 10 team is getting points. While a bit odd, I’ll look at it as an opportunity. Wake Forest takes down the ACC’s biggest brand.

CFB Week 12 Upset: UAB (+5) at No. 22 UTSA

Can UTSA’s perfect, magical year continue? As teams have fallen, UTSA has worked its way up the College Football Playoff rankings. And it has done so largely with offense.

The Roadrunners are averaging more than 38 points per game, which is ranked No. 12 in the nation. Running back Sincere McCormick is having a tremendous year, rushing for 1,150 yards and 11 touchdowns. And QB Frank Harris, who has also rushed for 400 yards, has been tremendous as well.

But UAB is a problem. Or at least a potential one. Head coach Bill Clark has built this program into one of the most consistent Group of 5 schools in the country.

The Blazers have won four of five, doing it with a mix of offense and defense. It’s a balance that should cause UTSA some issues.

Clark has done it before, and I believe he puts a dent in the dream season this week.

Prediction: UAB 24, UTSA 20

First Half: Under 27 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I expect this to be a defensive showdown. For UAB to win, it needs to ugly this game up. I expect that to happen early on.

UAB Moneyline (+190) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I absolutely love the value at nearly 2/1 here. UTSA, one of the current Cinderellas of the sport, will likely draw a lot of action. I like the underdog outright.

CFB Week 12 Upset: Navy (+4) vs. East Carolina

Stylistically, I am excited about this football game. Given its unique option-style offense, Navy is always an interesting matchup for an opponent. This year, however, that has translated to a grand total of two wins.

In fact, the results were so stagnant that head coach Ken Niumatalolo has shifted around his coaching staff in an attempt to shuffle the deck to jumpstart his team.

Granted, Navy’s disappointing year has come against a brutal schedule. The Midshipmen have played Notre Dame, Cincinnati, SMU and Houston, among others. And the performance against the Bearcats, a hard-fought 27-20 loss, was excellent.

East Carolina, once one of the doormats of the sport, has really come around. The Pirates have won their last three games and six overall this year. And it looks like freshman running back Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging more than seven yards per carry, is a future star.

But Navy’s style could be tricky. And coming off a bye after a brutal sequence of games, I believe an upset is brewing.

Prediction: Navy 20, East Carolina 17

Under 46.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Ball control. That will be the name of this game. East Carolina currently ranks No. 60 in rushing defense, which means Navy should keep the clock moving.

Navy Moneyline (+165) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

To take the theme above one step further, this just feels like a bad matchup for ECU. The development has been impressive, but I like the value of Navy a great deal.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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