With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, the time is ticking for teams to make their case to the College Football Playoff committee. The Oklahoma Sooners were a team that lessened their chances of sneaking into the final four teams following a disappointing loss to the Baylor Bears this past weekend.
Oklahoma was unable to get much going on offense, and it would replace freshman quarterback Caleb Williams for Spencer Rattler, only for Rattler to fail to provide a spark, causing the Sooners to fall to 9-1 on the season. Iowa State, who Oklahoma squares off with in Week 12, is looking to play spoiler in the Big 12 by handing the Sooners their second straight loss.
The Cyclones come into this game with a 6-4 record, clinging onto an outside chance to play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Will Oklahoma make a statement by bouncing back to defeat Iowa State at home? Or will Iowa State ruin Oklahoma’s hopes and dreams of being a playoff team this season?
All NCAAF gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and updated as of 12:00 p.m. ET on November 16, 2021.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma Prediction
It’s never a good time for a team to switch from their freshman quarterback to the Heisman hopeful quarterback that they benched for the freshman in the first place, but that’s exactly what Oklahoma did in its defeat to Baylor last week.
Rattler was unable to inject life into Oklahoma’s offense as the Sooners saw their playoff hopes rapidly decline. Regardless of whether it is Williams or Rattler under center in Week 12, Oklahoma should deploy more of Kennedy Brooks, who has gotten only 21 carries in the past two weeks.
Brooks has 853 yards and 10 touchdowns on 144 attempts, showing in multiple games this season that he can be relied on for production in the running game. A balanced attack from the Sooners could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Lincoln Riley’s squad.
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While Oklahoma sometimes strays away from the run game, Iowa State loves to lean on Breece Hall and its ground attack. Hall has scampered for 1,172 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 attempts this season, cementing himself as one of the premier running backs in the nation.
But unlike a week ago against Gerry Bohanon and Baylor, Iowa State has a quarterback in Brock Purdy that isn’t a threat in the running game. After receiving hype in the preseason, Purdy has turned into more of a game-manager for the Cyclones this season.
The defense of the Sooners should be able to stack the box to commit to slowing down Hall, forcing Purdy to win the game through the air. Oklahoma’s defense will come away with at least one play that allows it to secure the win at home.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Iowa State 24
Iowa State vs Oklahoma Best Bets
CFB Betting Record: 8-4-0
Best Bet: Oklahoma -4 (-110) at Betfred
Wager: 1 Unit
When looking at the numbers, all signs say to bet the spread in favor of Iowa State. Iowa State has covered the spread in five out of its last six meetings with Oklahoma, keeping it close in the majority of its matchups.
However, this is a Cyclones team that has lost two out of their last three games, including losses against Texas Tech and West Virginia. Whether it be Williams or Rattler at quarterback for Oklahoma, it is the superior team entering Saturday.
I expect the Sooners to come out firing on offense, with Brooks being heavily involved in the running game. On the defensive side of things, Oklahoma will do enough to limit Hall, leading Iowa State to throw the ball more often than it would prefer with Purdy.
Whenever teams have made Iowa State throw the ball often, it has had success against the Cyclones. With the Sooners desperate to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, they take care of business at home by at least four points.
Best Bet: Oklahoma Moneyline (-185) at Betfred
Wager: 1 Unit
As I already mentioned, Iowa State is 5-1 against the spread in its last six meetings with Oklahoma. On the other hand, the Sooners are 7-1 straight up when facing the Cyclones at home in their last eight home matchups.
The good news for Oklahoma is that it is playing in front of its home crowd on Saturday. Oklahoma is also 10-0 in its last 10 home games, including a 6-0 record as the home team this season.
Betting the under is tempting with the potential of both teams trying to control the time of possession in a crucial contest for both sides. However, betting an under in a decisive Big 12 contest seems too dangerous for my liking.
So with Oklahoma looking to bounce back from its dismal loss in Week 11, I’ll choose the Sooners to improve their record to 10-1 on the season. The idea of ruining Iowa State’s chances of making an improbable push for the Big 12 Championship Game is enough to motivate the Sooners to defeat their conference rivals on Saturday.