The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Buccaneers Falcons Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Buccaneers-Falcons picks are from PointsBet, current as of Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Buccaneers Falcons Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Buccaneers-Falcons Picks
- Against The Spread: Buccaneers -6 (-110)/Falcons +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (-261)/Falcons (+205)
- Total: 50.5 — Over 50.5 (-115)/Under 50.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 28.25, Falcons 22.25
The Buccaneers have no real shot at the NFC South. Not only are they two games back from the Saints, but New Orleans owns the tiebreaker as well following the season sweep. The Buccaneers are currently the sixth seed in the NFC playoff picture and must win to hold on with the Cardinals, Vikings, and Bears still in realistic contention for Wild Card spots.
The Buccaneers are 2-3 in their past five games but beat the Vikings last week coming off their bye. They will look to win their second straight on Sunday at the Falcons. The Falcons can play spoiler in this one but have lost three of their past four games, including two straight.
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Buccaneers-Falcons Key Injuries
Buccaneers
Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones underwent surgery earlier in the week to repair a fractured pinky. He suffered the injury in last week’s win over Minnesota.
However, while he was up in their air to play through the injured finger, everything has changed. The Buccaneers have placed Jones on the reserve/COVID list on Wednesday, further putting his Week 15 playing status in doubt. Although he does have a shot to play if he did not test positive for the virus, the Buccaneers will likely plan to be without him.
If Jones indeed sits out, we could see an RBBC approach to Tampa Bay’s backfield with Leonard Fournette, who was a healthy scratch last week, LeSean McCoy, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn managing the workload.
Falcons
Falcons WR Julio Jones has been dealing with this hamstring injury for weeks. He has missed two of Atlanta’s past four games following their Week 10 bye, including last week’s loss to the Chargers.
Head coach Raheem Morris told the press that Jones is week-to-week with the hamstring. And because he has yet to practice this week with the injury, there is good reason to believe the all-world wideout may sit out again.
If Jones is sidelined for Sunday’s game versus the Buccaneers, Calvin Ridley, Brandon Powell, Chrisitan Blake, and Russell Gage will round out the Falcons’ wide receiver rotation.
Buccaneers-Falcons Picks: Players to Watch
Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but with Ronald Jones on the reserve/ COVID list, he must step up and lead the Tampa backfield in Week 15.
Since popping for 116 total yards and two scores back in Week 2, Fournette has not done much. Jones took a stranglehold on the backfield. In seven games since that Week 2 outing, Fournette only had one game with a touchdown and one game with 97 total yards. He’s rushed for fewer than 71 yards in the other six outings.
While LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn should also see usage, Fournette will be the guy facing a Falcons defense surrendering the 10th fewest rushing yards per game (108.8).
With Jones sidelined, this could also be a Tom Brady game. In his career with the Patriots, Brady has thrown for 300+ yards or three scores in 4-of-6 games facing-off against Atlanta.
Major point that could heavily sway these Buccaneers-Falcons Picks: Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been atrocious without Julio Jones on the field this season. In six games when Jones was out, limited, or left the game with an injury, Ryan has thrown for fewer than 285 yards in every single outing with fewer than one score. In five of those games, Ryan has thrown for fewer than 238 yards, while throwing for zero touchdowns three times.
If Jones is out this week, the Atlanta offense will be smothered by an angry Buccaneers’ defense looking to end the year strong and control their own destiny for a Wild Card spot.
Whether it is Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, or Ito Smith leading the Falcons’ backfield, Atlanta can’t run the ball with efficiency either, which does not bode well for keeping the opposing defense honest so Ryan can go to work. When Smith is the best running back on your team, you know you’re in dire straits.
Buccaneers Falcons Weather Report
The weather at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will not impact the outcome of the game as it is a dome field.
Buccaneers Falcons Picks & Best Bet
BEST BET: Buccaneers -6 (-110)
While the Falcons have won six of their past seven meetings against the Buccaneers — for more Betting Trends for Week 15, read my article here — those were Tampa Bay teams led by Jameis Winston for the most part. This is Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, a team that coming off their Week 13 bye, resembled the Tampa Bay squad from the first half in the season that went 6-2.
Since that 6-2 start, the Buccaneers are 2-3, including last week’s convincing win over the Vikings. This week, they get a Falcons team that looked like they were turning their lost season around under interim head coach Raheem Morris but dropped three of their past four games, including each of their past two.
As I said in the Players to Watch section, Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense has struggled without Julio Jones. The elite wideout may not play this week. And since Atlanta can’t run the ball either, this Buccaneers defense should pin them down.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense should have no issue moving the ball against an Atlanta defense that has played well in the past month but lost three of their four games. In those three losses, the Falcons have scored a total of 42 points. They scored 43 points in their lone win in that period against Las Vegas.
With the Buccaneers unable to feature Ronald Jones as he is on the reserve/ COVID list, they may not be able to run the football with efficiency as they had with him of late. That means Brady will be slinging it against a suspect secondary, that despite their recent progression in play, they were lit up for most of the year.
The Buccaneers are 5-3 against the spread in their past eight games and 3-1 in their past four, including two straight covers.
The Falcons are 4-4 ATS in their past eight games, failing to cover in three of their past four, including two straight.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS in their past five games against Atlanta, failing to cover in their last 2019 outing.
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CONSIDER: Under 50.5 (-105)
When you think about the Falcons and Buccaneers, you’d normally think, geez, this game will go Over. However, in this one, I am not too sure.
The Falcons have scored fewer than 17 points in three of their past four games.
While the Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams, hitting in four straight, this season, both defenses are better than they have been in years past.
The Under is 13-7 in the Buccaneers and Falcons’ past 20 games combined.
The Under is 2-2 in the Buccaneers’ past four games, failing to hit in two straight.
The Under is 8-2 in the Falcons’ past 10 games, hitting in four straight.
Pass: Falcons (+205)
Despite the fact that the Falcons have won six of their past seven meetings with the Buccaneers, these teams are very different than in years past. More so, because of Tom Brady.
Brady is 6-0 in six career games against the Falcons. Three of those wins were in Atlanta. He was credited with another road win over them, but that was the Super Bowl.
For reasons stated in the above blurbs, Tampa Bay should run away with this game.
Anthony Cervino is 48-40-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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