The San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Conference Championship Game in what should be a high-scoring game between two explosive offenses.
49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy is in a great spot against a vulnerable Lions’ pass defense that ranks 25th in EPA. We just saw Baker Mayfield shred this defense for 349 yards through the air.
So without further ado, let’s dive into Purdy props for the NFC Conference Championship Game between Detroit and San Francisco.
All Conference Championship odds used in these props are current as of Jan. 22.
Brock Purdy Prop Pick of the Day
Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop
Brock Purdy: Over 262.5 Passing Yards
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Brock Purdy averaged 267.5 passing yards per game this season, but he’s gone Under this number in four straight games. Having said that, I love taking this prop up to 280+ because it’s such a terrific matchup.
Purdy should be able to pick apart this Lions defense that is allowing 277.8 passing yards per game. Detroit ranks 25th in Pass EPA and 4th in Rush EPA, so they’re a pass-funnel defense.
This means that since the Lions’ weakness is against the pass and their strength is defending the run, you often see opponents air it out at a higher rate against them.
We’ve also seen the 49ers’ quarterback perform better at home, where he averages 309.4 yards through the air. This includes big games against the Seahawks (368 yards) and Buccaneers (333 yards).
The one concern is game script with the 49ers as seven-point favorites, but the Lions should have enough on offense to keep this one close, making it less likely that we see less passing volume from Purdy.
We’re getting a terrific price on this prop at bet365, as it’s listed at 270.5 in other spots, including FanDuel.
If you don’t have bet365 in your state, take this Over at Caesars for (-117) odds.
Brock Purdy Touchdown Prop
Brock Purdy: Anytime Touchdown
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Units
Let’s take a shot at (+600) odds on Purdy to rush for a touchdown. We’re getting a good deal here, as this prop is listed at (+450) in other spots, like bet365.
While Purdy isn’t a prolific runner by any means, he does have the ability to scramble for a touchdown, finding the end zone on the ground on two occasions this season.
When you consider that the Lions have been stout in run defense, that could mean that they’re able to slow down Christian McCaffrey in the red zone.
This could result in more dropbacks for Purdy, which ultimately could force him to scramble out of the pocket and dive into the end zone.
This is bet a sprinkle for a chance at a solid payout, but remember to put fewer units since it has a lower implied probability (14.3%) from the (+600) odds.
It may also be worth a look to put an even lower stake on Purdy to score the first touchdown, since that would yield an even better payout.
There’s a good chance that the 49ers score the first touchdown, since they’re seven point favorites in this game.
