Here’s your MLB Betting Picks of the Day, highlights by the Best Baseball Pick Today 5/26/21. All odds for May 26 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM, which offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
It looks like I’m loving the NL West tonight, on the road. I guess that’s a good thing considering the NL West is easily the best division in baseball this season.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 5/26/21.
- Overall: 12-6 (+4.54 units)
- Team Totals: 5-3 (+1.35 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 4-2 (+1.49 units)
- Moneylines: 3-1 (+1.70 units)
MLB Betting Picks of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 5/26/21
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (7:40 p.m. ET)
- Dodgers @ Astros 5/26/21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Trevor Bauer (LAD) vs. RHP Luis Garcia (HOU)
Dodgers to win the first 5 innings moneyline (-140)
Wager: 1.40 units
Trevor Bauer has been pitching lights-out recently. In his last two starts, Bauer has allowed four hits and no earned runs combined in 13.1 innings pitched against the Marlins and Giants. In those 13.1 innings, Bauer has struck out 21 batters and has now struck out 37 batters in May in just 23.2 innings.
In the last month, Bauer has dominated right-handed batters, holding them to a .138 weighted on-base average (wOBA) while limiting extra base hits very well against righties. Bauer has been hit a little hard against lefties but has also struck lefties out 33.8 percent of the time in the last 30 days.
For Bauer, walks have been a bit high recently. He’s walked four batters in two of his last four outings but because he’s allowed no more than four hits in any start, those walks haven’t come back to haunt him.
He’ll have a tough assignment against the Astros, on the road. But that challenge will be accepted by Bauer who never backs down. The Astros offense hasn’t been all that against righties recently. The top of the order is capable of working walks and limiting strike outs but only Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have been able to get on base regularly for this team against righties. Alvarez and Tucker would be those two power bats that could get to Bauer but other than that, this lineup looks better than it is.
On the other hand, Luis Garcia will take the hill for the Astros. He’s been a tough read so far this season but one thing is for sure. He’s hittable and doesn’t go deep in games at all. Garcia has allowed nine runs in his last 20 innings, giving up 15 hits and eight walks along with five home runs.
It doesn’t matter what side a batter is hitting on against Garcia. If that batter has power, there’s a chance for an extra base hit. In his last 30 days, Garcia has allowed plenty of pop from both sides of the plate with an isolated power (ISO) of .256 to lefties and .229 to righties. Any number beyond .160 is above average and poor.
This Dodgers lineup has plenty of power, especially from the left side. Max Muncy has destroyed righties along with Gavin Lux and Matt Beaty. Even the righties can get involved against Garcia though. Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Chris Taylor have a wOBA of .375 or greater against righties in their last 30 days. While Justin Turner hasn’t performed recently, he’s still limiting strikeouts and walking over 13.5 percent of the time against righties.
The Dodgers should be able to put some runs on the board for Bauer early and hold the lead through the first half of the game. I’m on the Dodgers in the first five here.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
- Padres @ Brewers 5/26/21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Chris Paddack (SDP) vs. LHP Eric Lauer (MIL)
Brewers in the first five innings on the moneyline (-140)
Wager: 1.40 units (win would pay 1 unit)
Eric Lauer is expected to get the start, at home, against the red-hot San Diego Padres. Since the starting lineup came back from COVID, this team has raked, especially against lefties. They’ve been able to limit strikeouts and walk at an extremely high rate of 14.7 percent in the last 30 days.
Lauer has thrown 16 innings this season and has allowed 17 hits, nine runs (five earned) with five home runs. He won’t walk many with just two walks in 16 innings but the Padres have been extremely patient at the plate against lefties this season.
The Padres haven’t been the best against lefties this season if you date back to the start of the season. But again, recently, things have been much better. Tommy Pham, through 18 plate appearances has an isolated power of .273 and a wOBA of .434. He’s striking out just 11.1 percent of the time to lefties and walking 33.3 percent of the time. Those are the numbers you want to see at the top of the order.
Jake Cronenworth has a wOBA of .364 and also strikes out at a low rate while walking 11.8 percent of the time against lefties this season.
This lineup hasn’t shown off all the power in the world against lefties this season but Eric Hosmer is the one massive threat from the left-handed side. Hosmer, with 17 plate appearances, has hit an ISO of .357 and has a wOBA of .696 with no strikeouts and 11.8 percent walks.
Of course, I haven’t mentioned Fernando Tatis Jr., who has strictly performed against righties this season. But if you date back to last season and add his 104 plate appearances against lefties, Tatis Jr.’s numbers look much better, with an ISO of .244 and a wOBA of .351. He’ll come around and going up against Lauer, who has allowed five home runs in 16 innings, could help this argument.
Anyway, Chris Paddack will take the mound for the Padres. He’s been rock solid since getting back to the mound. In his last three starts since his return from the injured list, he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings through three starts. He hasn’t had to go deep in games because the Padres have put up 11, 13, and 16 runs in his last three starts respectively.
Since returning, Paddack has struggled way more against right-handed batters compared to righties. Through his last 40 plate appearances against lefties, he’s allowed a .190 wOBA and .026 ISO. To righties, it’s ugly. He’s allowing a .373 wOBA and a .226 ISO.
The Brewers are expected to have five lefties in the lineup along with Lauer, the pitcher. Paddack has dominated lefties recently and will take on three right-handed batters in Avisail Garcia, Lorenzo Cain, and Willy Adames.
Garcia has some power but strikes out nearly 25 percent of the time in his last 30 days against righties. Cain has worked counts to walk nearly 10 percent of the time. Adames is walking 13 percent of the time but strikes out 37 percent of the time to righties in his last 30 days.
This Milwaukee lineup has been weak throughout the season and if Paddack is going to face five lefties and a pitcher, I’ll ride him all night long.
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