Top Week 13 Player Prop Bets courtesy of PointsBet, current as of Friday morning.
Best Week 13 Player Prop Bets
Jonathan Taylor Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-134)
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor was activated from the reserve/ COVID-19 list and is in line to play Sunday against the Houston Texans. While Taylor has not lived to his offseason hype, he is still the Colts’ top pure rusher. With a prime matchup against the Texans, one of the poorest run defenses in the NFL, Taylor could have his most-productive game as a pro.
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The Texans are yielding the second-most rushing yards per game (154.7) and are coming off of a Week 12 outing in which they let Adrian Peterson appear rejuvenated. Taylor would have surpassed this 49.5-yard total in 6-of-10 games this season, but only once in his past four, which was the last time he was on the field preceding his one-game absence due to his stint on the COVID list.
When Taylor is given 12+ carries, he’s rushed for 59+ yards. That has happened six times. In the four games in which he received fewer than 11 carries, he has rushed for fewer than 27 yards. Taylor is a volume back. The Houston defense has allowed 12 different backs to surpass 49.5-yards this season.
Justin Jefferson Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has a terrific matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Jaguars defense is allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (279.5), which bodes well for Jefferson’s 66.5-yard Over.
While Jefferson has had an inconsistent start to the year, he’s been money in the past month. In each of his past four games, Jefferson accumulated 70+ yards in three of them and in 6-of-12 games this season.
Jefferson has also drawn double-digit targets in two of his past four games and at least four in the remaining two. His opportunity-share is growing.
Sure, one of those 10+ target games came without Adam Thielen on the field last week, but Jefferson has also logged 10+ targets in a game with Thielen playing. Jefferson is also a field-stretcher. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to accumulate big yardage. The Jaguars have allowed 13 different wideouts to drop 66.5+ yards on them this season.
Latavius Murray Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While Alvin Kamara is the de facto RB1 on the New Orleans Saints, Latavius Murray is not far behind when it comes to rushing totals. Kamara has managed 585 rushing yards on 128 carries while Murray has logged 551 yards on 121 attempts. While Kamara is averaging 53.2 rushing yards per game, Murray is at 50.1. They are both averaging 4.6 yards per tote.
With Taysom Hill starting at quarterback for the Saints, you can make the case that Murray is just as, if not slightly more valuable to the New Orleans offense. Murray is by far the better pure rusher while Kamara is an elite overall breakaway talent. The Saints are employing a more run-heavy system with Hill, which favors Murray.
With Hill, Murray has logged his best two games of the year, totaling at least 85 yards in consecutive games. While he only rushed for 49 yards on 12 carries in Hill’s first start, Murray went for 124 yards and two scores on the ground on 19 carries last week. Murray would have surpassed this 42.5-yard over in each of his past three games and seven times overall this season
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