The Kansas City Chiefs have been on fire since they got started in the playoffs this year. It’s almost like once you get to the playoffs, what you did in the regular season doesn’t even matter anymore. Imagine that…
Fueled by his girlfriend, Taylor Swift (and partially his brother, Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce), Travis Kelce has had a terrific playoffs so far, racking up 12 catches on 16 targets for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. It seems meager in the grand scheme, but he’s played a massive role in helping to dispatch both the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
We now go to the AFC Championship, where the player props are plentiful with the star tight end. Let’s dive into them.
Best Travis Kelce Player Prop
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • 1 Unit
There’s not a much better bet when targeting a Chiefs’ pass-catcher than Kelce’s receptions mark. He’s hit the over here in ten of his 17 games this season, and he’s going to be especially important against a defense like Baltimore’s that is the best passing defense in the NFL, per FTN’s DVOA metric.
Looking at Baltimore, you have to find creative ways to beat them, and Kelce offers a mismatch that most NFL tight ends don’t offer: his ability to get open nearly every play seamlessly. Most of the time, he’s not going to be covered by a cornerback, so teams putting linebackers and safeties on him are going to get punished because Kelce’s like a wide receiver playing the tight end position in that his route-running is exemplary.
Whether it’s a guy like Patrick Queen or Kyle Hamilton in coverage for Baltimore, I do think Kelce is going to soar over this number, and I think there’s plenty of value in looking at the alt-line market for him as well, given his 16 total targets this postseason.
Travis Kelce Touchdown Player Prop
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • 1 Unit
Kelce only scored five times during the regular season, but his value only increases in a massive spot like the AFC Championship, and I foresee him being a main red zone threat for a team that should definitely need to score touchdowns rather than field goals to win this game against the Ravens.
This Travis Kelce player prop is extremely important because if Kelce doesn’t score, it’s likely that the Chiefs lose this football game. They simply do not have enough other playmakers that are capable of getting in the endzone easily besides Kelce, and if Marlon Humphrey returns this weekend, he’ll make life very difficult for Rashee Rice, who is the Chiefs’ other playmaking threat.
