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If you had a Rutgers running back drafted in the 7th round as a key cog to the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty, take a bow. Isiah Pacheco has been a steady force for a Chiefs offense lacking talented depth on offense, and he was more of a diamond in the rough than a pure talent.
Regardless of his path, Pacheco has earned every inch of praise he has been given due to his raw strength and unlimited motor with the ball in his hands. Players like the Vineland, New Jersey native are fan favorites because of his work ethic and awareness that his role is usually short lived and unforgiving.
The Chiefs RB1 gets to face off against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has been a sieve against opposing backs, including 182 yards on the ground in their 34-31 NFC Championship win.
That means sportsbooks are deciding where to land on player props for Pacheco. The Game Day has you covered on his Super Bowl 58 betting props, as well as the best sportsbook promos across the industry.
Pacheco hit this number in 9 of 20 games this season, including 3 of his last 5. His biggest hurdles were against top rushing units (BAL, LVR), something San Francisco is not at this point in the season.
The 49ers allowed 10 rushes of 20-plus yards in the regular season, and allowed David Montgomery and Jameson Williams to add runs of 16-plus yards last week. Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest run was 15 yards, for what it’s worth.
Pacheco will face almost no competition for rushing attempts, giving him more bites at the apple to top this Super Bowl prop.
Majority of the industry has this prop set at 16.5, but ESPN offers 17.5 at plus money.
Pacheco is utilized in every game script for the Chiefs, but sees his rushing usage get boosted in close, one score games, especially when K.C. is leading. During their four-game win streak, Pacheco has carry totals of 18, 24, 15, and 24. Only one game, a 26-7 Wild Card win over Miami, did the Chiefs win by more than one score.
As slight underdogs at a neutral site, I’ll push for the plus money carries.
Pacheco has a role in the passing game, but it varies a lot. The reason the under is in play for the Super Bowl is the re-emergence of a healthy Travis Kelce, and the upward trajectory of Rashee Rice.
The 49ers defense has allowed opposing backs to top this number six times all season, with majority of the instances coming with them leading or well on their way to a win. I expect the Chiefs to keep this game close.
In three playoff games, Pacheco has 7 receptions for 27 yards. 14 of them came on one reception. Pacheco’s 17.5 receiving yards line is a good betting line because he can get there in as little as one reception.
There has been enough talk of the Chiefs being a run-first offense to make one’s head spin. So why not bet on it?
The 49ers allowed 0.47 rush TDs per game heading into the postseason. In two games since, they’ve had mixed results by allowing 0 and 3 scores on the ground.
If the Chiefs end up with the ball to start Super Bowl 58, it would be poetic that they find paydirt the same way the Lions did in what was looking like a blowout.
This Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl prop should not be a 1-unit bet. Aim for 0.25-0.50 units.
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| SportsBook | bet365 Sportsbook |
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