Michael Rathburn debuts with your April 28 MLB Prop Bet Tips for 4/28/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds were obtained from PointsBet.
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April 28 MLB Prop Bet Tips
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Wager: 3 units (or your personal MAX)
Coming off a monster night in which we saw Vladdy Jr. crush three balls over the fence including a grand slam, he is +115 to get over 1.5 total bases. I love total bases props because you get the walks and possible steals (hey, he’s lost weight but I’m not banking on this). But really it comes down to targeting high on-base percentage hitters against weak starting pitchers. Also with total bases, we just need a double, triple, home run to cash or two of the following: hit, walk, steal.
I dig into the game logs for hitters to see how many times have they cashed on the total bases prop and for Vladdy Jr. it’s a whopping 11 out of 13 for a 85 percent hit rate. On the other side, I look at the starting pitcher and target high walk/low strikeout profiles.
Erick Fedde has a career 1.51 WHIP and 1.47 so far in 2021. Enough said. The guy has consistently walked four batters per nine innings every year in his career. Now he has been unlucky in 2021, but one good start vs. three bad starts and a body of work that suggests he does not have command of the strike zone.
Even if Vlad does not get to Fedde early, the Nationals bullpen also allows 4 .08 BB/9 so overall I can see him getting at least a walk and a base hit coming off last night.
Steven Matz, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Wager: 1.5 units
I come back to the Blue Jays-Nationals game with another prop play on a line that feels at least 0.5 - 1.0 short. Matz Over 4.5 Strikeouts feels low, considering he’s also (-175) to win the game, and all we need is for him to go six innings based on his current strikeout rate to hit the number.
Matz has been lights-out this year in four starts with a 4-0 record, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and at least 5 strikeouts in three out of four of those. The Nationals are without their best hitter Juan Soto, and Josh Bell sits against left-handed pitchers.
The projected Nationals lineup has players like Hernan Perez, Jordy Mercer, Yan Gomes and Victor Robles hitting 6-9, which is where Matz should be able to do damage. Even though there is only one left-handed hitter in the lineup, Kyle Schwarber; this lineup is weak right now.
The key here is I think the Jays will jump out to a big lead and Matz will pie up innings and gets to the strikeout number rather easily.
After reading April 28 MLB Prop Bet Tips and 4/28/21 MLB Player Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for April 28.