Here’s your April 27 MLB Bet Picks for 4/27/21 MLB Bets. All odds were obtained from bet365.
I’ve been off to an awful start in betting on MLB, but I’m confident that with some more discipline, I can turn it around. It’s a long season, so there’s plenty of time to get back on track.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card on my Twitter page @FAmmiranteTFJ.
- Season: 53-84-3 (-37.2 units)
- Sides: 21-23 (-1.3 units)
- Run Lines: 1-6 (-4.3 units)
- Game Totals: 15-29-3 (-19.3 units)
- Team Totals: 1-6 (-6.15 units)
- Props: 15-20 (-6.15 units)
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April 27 MLB Bet Tips
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians, 6:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: RHP Kenta Maeda (MIN) vs. RHP Aaron Civale (CLE)
Indians (-105)
Wager: 1.05 units (win would pay 1 unit)
I got this number at +100 late last night, but the line has moved to -115, which is still great value on the Indians at home. The Twins are off to a disappointing 7-14 start to the season. Since April 10, they have gone 2-12, averaging only 3.14 runs per game during that span. What’s worse, if we take out their 12-run eruption against the A’s on April 21st, they’re putting up only 2.46 runs per game.
The Twins will go up against Aaron Civale, who is the second-best pitcher on this Indians’ staff. He’s gotten off to a strong start, putting up a 2.42 ERA (2.95 xERA) and 0.88 WHIP in 26 innings. Civale should be able to turn in a quality outing against this slumping Twins’ offense.
Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins and he hasn’t looked right so far, putting up a 6.11 ERA (4.48 xERA) and 1.87 WHIP in 17.2 innings. Maeda’s strikeout rate is down 13% as he’s struggled with control. His Called-Strike-Whiff Rate (CSW) has decreased from 32.8% to 27.3%.
The Indians are playing better baseball with advantages on the mound and with home field, so they look like a great value as a home underdog.
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:35 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: RHP Jakob Junis (KC) vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (PIT)
Royals (-115)
Wager: 1.2 units (win would pay 1 unit)
The Royals are red-hot right now, currently on a five-game winning streak while leading the AL Central with a 14-7 record. They take on a Pirates team that has played well at 11-11, but they remain one of the worst teams in baseball. This is their first game back in Pittsburgh after a successful nine-game road trip, where they went 6-3.
Jakob Junis gets the call for Kansas City. He added a new cutter to his arsenal, which has been highly effective so far, as hitters have posted a .137 wOBA against the pitch. Junis has increased his swinging-strike rate by 1.7% so far this season. He should be able to turn in a quality outing against one of the weakest lineups in baseball.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson has been solid so far, putting up a 17.2 K-BB% in 20.2 innings, but this isn’t a matchup to fear. Anderson is a mediocre pitcher who posted a 4.37 ERA and 6.2 K-BB% in 59.2 innings last season. The Royals don’t strike out often (17.3 K%, 1st in MLB), so they could work Anderson’s pitch count and get to this Pirates bullpen.
The Royals are the better team with a pitching advantage at a cheap price as a road favorite.
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