It was fun while it lasted. The Cincinnati Bengals tore our hearts out last week, losing to the New York Jets and first-time starter Mike White.
We lasted about half a season until getting knocked out. It gave us some fun for eight weeks.
If you didn’t listen to me and took a different team other than Cincinnati and are still alive, I’ll continue to write these articles as if the Bengals ended up winning. I won’t pick the same team twice and I’ll continue to play the game, although, I’ve been eliminated from my pools.
At the end of the day, I went down with White throwing for over 400 yards in his first career start. I’m not even mad at this point. Who would’ve thought?
All odds and lines are current as of Wednesday, November 3, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 9
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Wednesday, November 3, at 9:00 a.m. ET.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 9
Dallas Cowboys vs Denver Broncos
The Dallas Cowboys defeated the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Now, there’s optimism that Dak Prescott will return as the starter this week against the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos are coming off a 17-10 win over Washington, though they put themselves in position to lose the game multiple times. Prior to their win, the Broncos had lost four games in a row.
Denver’s wins are against the Football Team, Jets, New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars. Moreover, the Broncos also just traded away Von Miller and seem to be conceding the season despite having a 4-4 record.
Behind Prescott, Dallas has been sensational with an average of 465.6 yards of offense and 32.1 points per game.
Coming into this season, the Broncos were thought to be a solid defense but against premier offenses, but they’ve been everything but. The Ravens scored 23 while, the Raiders scored 34 against the Broncos. Even the Steelers put up 27 points on them.
The defense, especially in coverage, is a bit overrated. Without Miller, it’s even worse. I love the Cowboys in this spot at home.
That was the one mistake I made last week. I took the Bengals on the road. In Survivor, it’s crucial to take teams at home going up against bad teams.
Betting Pick: Cowboys -9.5 (-110) at Caesars
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
If you’re looking to sneak out of this week without using a playoff team, this might be the only time you can use the Miami Dolphins.
The 1-7 Dolphins are taking on the 1-7 Texans, at home, as 6.5-point favorites. Yes, the Dolphins, although 1-7, are nearly a touchdown favorite against the Texans.
The Prediction Tracker gives the Dolphins a 65.16 percent chance of winning this game outright, which is really good for a team that has won just one game all year.
The Texans have allowed over 30 points per game in four of their last five and have really struggled offensively. Houston did score 22 against the Rams in a 38-22 loss, but those touchdowns were in garbage time and the Texans never truly had a chance to win that game.
Plus, Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor still hasn’t been confirmed as starter. There was optimism he would start three weeks ago. Now, I’m starting to think he’s just not going to play this season. Something fishy is going on over there.
Miami stuck around against Buffalo last week, and although they lost 26-11, the Dolphins defense really showed out until fatigue set in. Miami’s offense should be able to score way more than their average of 17.3 points in this game and defeat the Texans.
This is the only time I would recommend the Dolphins. Maybe I’d also recommend them against the Jets, but now, I’d be scared to bet against the Jets as they’ve already knocked off the Titans and Bengals this season.
Betting Pick: Dolphins -6.5 (-110) at Caesars
The Miami Dolphins appear to be sticking with Tua Tagovailoa as their franchise quarterback after declining to trade for Deshaun Watson this week. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Saints won’t be led by Jameis Winston any longer after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8. Now the Saints need to rely on Trevor Siemian, who is a backup for a reason. He went 16-for-29 in Winston’s absence last week in the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers.
It looks as though the Prediction Tracker doesn’t necessarily agree with me. Most models seem to think Winston wasn’t as big of a factor for the Saints as I believe.
Regardless, with the way Matt Ryan has played, the Falcons have a chance. There will be no Calvin Ridley, but the Falcons still have reliable receivers. Plus, the defense for the Falcons should be able to keep Atlanta in the game with Siemian under center for the Saints.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Chargers are slight favorites against the Eagles on the road. Philadelphia just dominated the Lions as slight favorites last week, while the Chargers are in the middle of a slump.
Los Angeles has lost their last two games against the Ravens and Patriots and just haven’t played well offensively since their stunning 47-42 win over the Browns. Right now, the Chargers have allowed more points this season than they’ve scored.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are still fighting for a chance at the postseason. This team is very capable. But on the road, against an Eagles team that has all the momentum, I’d steer away.
There will be better opportunities for the Chargers down the line.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Last week, it didn’t matter which defense Mike White was up against. He was going to go off no matter what.
The Jets simplified the game plan and took whatever the Bengals were giving them. Let this be a lesson to all quarterbacks and coaches: You don’t need to make things more complicated, especially for young quarterbacks.
The Colts are fantastic at stopping the run, but they’re awful in the secondary. If White gets a little time in the pocket to make quick reads and throws, he should have another big day under center.
With the Bengals being my selection last week, I watched this full game in awe. White was poised, confident and just terrific throughout. I was nervous after the first drive that the Bengals could actually lose. And it happened. So don’t make that same mistake and bet against the Jets this week.
Thanks for reading our Week 9 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips and picks, read our NFL Week 9 Best Bets and NFL Week 9 Parlay Picks.
