The Dallas Cowboys have won four consecutive games since their Week 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and will look to remain hot against the New England Patriots, who barely squeaked by the Houston Texans in Week 5. While the Cowboys look like possible Super Bowl contenders this year, the Patriots are in rebuild mode with rookie quarterback Mac Jones leading the offense.
For this matchup between two of the more popular franchises in the league, let’s go over our Cowboys vs Patriots predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL Week 6 odds and lines are current as of 5 PM EST on Friday, October 15.
Mike Barner’s season record: 10-10 (+0.15 units)
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Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction
There’s a lot to like about the Cowboys’ fast start. Their offense has been clicking with a healthy Dak Prescott back under center, ranking second in the NFL with 34 points per game. After missing most of last season with an ankle injury, Prescott is playing like an MVP candidate again with 1,368 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns through five games.
Ezekiel Elliot has returned to form as well after a down 2020 with six total touchdowns and 507 yards from scrimmage over his first five games. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has been far more formidable under new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, improving from 28th to 14th in fewest points allowed.
While the Cowboys are playing well on both sides of the ball, the Patriots’ offense has continued to struggle in its second season since Tom Brady‘s departure. While Jones has been solid, New England ranks 26th with 19.2 points per game and has topped 17 points only twice thus far.
The Patriots still boast an elite defense that’s allowing the fifth-fewest points per game this year (18.4) and will have home-field advantage, though they’re 0-3 in Foxborough this year. New England’s offense won’t be able to keep pace with Dallas, however, resulting in a fifth straight win for the Cowboys.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Patriots 20
Cowboys vs Patriots Best Bets
Best Bet: Patriots Under 24.5 Points (-140) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
The Patriots are averaging fewer than 20 points per game and their only performances with over 17 points came against the New York Jets and Houston Texans — two of the worst teams in the league.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have held their opponents to 21 points or fewer three times and are yielding just 23.4 points per game. They also lead the league with 10 interceptions, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pick off Jones a couple times.
New England’s lack of explosive playmakers on offense — especially at wide receiver — limits their ceiling considerably. Jones has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four) over his last three games and could continue to struggle against the Dallas secondary.
These odds aren’t exactly eye-popping, but it’s difficult to envision a path for the Patriots to hit the Over, making this our NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Mac Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Further building on the thought that the Patriots will struggle to score in this game, Jones could be in line for a rough afternoon. As previously stated, he has thrown five picks over the last three games and the Cowboys’s defense leads the league in interceptions with 10.
It’s a bit surprising that the line wasn’t set at 1.5 interceptions, or that the odds aren’t more heavily favored for him to be picked off at least one time.
Best Bet: Dak Prescott Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
As prolific as the Cowboys have been on offense, Prescott hasn’t always needed to carry the load. Actually, he’s attempted 32 or fewer passes in four straight games. The only time he would have hit the over on this line was when Dallas was in a shootout with the Buccaneers in Week 1.
With the expectation that the Patriots will have trouble scoring in this game, Prescott might not need to throw all that much. If they race out to an early lead, we could see plenty of Elliott and Tony Pollard in the second half.
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 6 Cowboys vs Patriots Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 6 Best Bets.