Tennessee (2-2) and Jacksonville (0-4) square off in Week 5 with the two teams heading on seemingly different trajectories this season. The Titans are trying to maintain their status as an AFC contender, having made trips to the playoffs in three of the last four years. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are attempting to rebuild with 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence after making only one trip to the playoffs in the past decade.
Both teams will look to bounce back after disappointing Week 4 losses that came by a field goal. For the Titans, a missed game-tying attempt late in overtime cost them the game against the New York Jets, while the Jaguars were beaten by a successful Cincinnati Bengals attempt as time expired.
Despite the difference in records, this AFC South clash could be closer than some expect come Sunday due to these two teams’ familiarity with each other.
Please note that all Titans vs Jaguars odds are current as of Friday, October 8. Continue reading for my Titans vs Jaguars predictions and best bets in the latest installment of our NFL pick of the day series.
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Titans vs Jaguars Prediction
The theme of this game should be the ground game, as both teams lean on their running backs heavily. Titans star Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 113 rushing attempts, 30 more than the next closest player, and has already surpassed the 500-yard mark in four games. On the other side, Jaguars running back James Robinson has amassed 238 yards on the ground so far this season and Trevor Lawrence showed he can be effective runner at this level with eight carries for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 4.
I expect this trend to continue especially with uncertainties in the passing game for each team.
For Tennessee, both AJ Brown and Julio Jones missed Week 4 with hamstring injuries and their absences certainly had a significant impact on the Titans’ ability to move the ball through the air. On the other side, Jacksonville lost one of its most promising young receivers, DJ Chark, to a fractured left ankle in Week 4’s loss to the Bengals.
If the Jaguars are going to pick up their first win of the season, they need another clean game from Trevor Lawrence. The rookie had thrown 2+ interceptions in each of his first three games, but didn’t turn it over in Week 4 and gave his team a chance at the end.
For Tennessee to win, the offensive line must keep Ryan Tannehill clean. In the Titans’ two losses this season, Tannehill was sacked six and seven times respectively. When he stays upright in the pocket, Tannehill can spread the ball around to his backs and receivers, with eight Titans having racked up 5+ receptions so far this season.
At face value, the Titans are the better team, but Jacksonville has managed to steadily improve in each game so far this season. If Tennessee has its full complement of offensive firepower at its disposal, it should run away with this game. But if Brown and Jones don’t suit up again, this game could tip towards Jacksonville’s favor.
Prediction: Titans 30, Jaguars 21
Titans vs Jaguars Best Bets
Over 48.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1.5 Units
Titans’ games have gone over this point total three of four times this season, while Jaguars’ games would be 2-2 to the Over. Jacksonville is averaging less than 20 points per game, but looked better on offense last week and has managed to keep games somewhat competitive. The NFL gameday odds show that this point total has decreased slightly since the opening line came out, which makes this Over even more enticing.
As long as Jacksonville contributes offensively, this Over should be in good shape as I expect Tennessee to take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is third-worst in the league in yards allowed (418.5 per game) and has allowed 28.8 points per game.
Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
This isn’t as much of a bet on the offenses as much as it is on two bad defenses. Both teams rank in the bottom eight in points allowed so far this season, with the Tennessee’s 27.8 points allowed per contest nearly matching Jacksonville’s figure above.
The Titans let an anemic Jets offense spring to life and I expect the Jaguars could do the same as they have better offensive weapons than New York. The Titans have put up 20+ points in their last three games, while the Jaguars have surpassed 20 points in two of their opening four games.
Titans Moneyline (-200) at BetMGM
Wager: 2 Units
The Jaguars have shown flashes of being a competitive team, having held a halftime lead in their last two games before ultimately throwing them away in the second half. The Titans have shown the ability to win and if they have everyone healthy, they should take command of this game with their overall talent.
After 19 straight losses dating back to last season, you could argue the Jaguars might be due for a win, but with head coach Urban Meyer in the news again for all the wrong reasons it’s hard to back the Jaguars right now.
The Titans have won 9 of the last 12 matchups against Jacksonville and I don’t expect that trend to change this week. This is an easy bet considering Tennessee is the favorite.
Titans vs Jaguars Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: +550
Wager: 1 Unit
- Titans Moneyline (-200) at BetMGM
- Jaguars to Score First (-105) at BetMGM
- Race to 10 points: Jaguars (+120) at BetMGM
This is a really aggressive parlay, but one that could pay out handsomely if it hits. The Jaguars have scored first in half of their games and hit 10 points first in their last two games against two talented teams in the Cardinals and Bengals. Unfortunately, they can’t maintain a lead, allowing their opponent to ultimately walk away with the win. If this week follows that trend, we’ll capitalize on it.
Kyle Trimble’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 2-6, -5.25 units
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