These are the best kinds of NFL games.
Both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are coming off tough losses in Week 3, and both are hungry to bounce back. However, it’s worth noting that while Pete Carroll is 24-19 against the spread (ATS) after a loss, Kyle Shanahan is just 5-7 ATS.
At the time of this writing, the 49ers are 3-point home favorites, while the Seahawks are pulling in over 75% of the bets and over 90% of the betting handle.
So, is it worth betting Carroll and the Seahawks as short road favorites? Or should we fade the public in this Sunday afternoon battle?
Let’s dive into this matchup and find the most profitable betting angle in the NFL pick of the day series.
Best Bet: Seahawks +3 (-115) at DraftKings
For more insight on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue on.
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Seahawks vs 49ers Prediction
The Seahawks defense looks exactly like how I expected it to when not playing against Carson Wentz: Bad.
The unit has now given up 30+ points in consecutive weeks, last week allowing Kirk Cousins to pass for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns while the Vikings rushed for 140 yards without Dalvin Cook. The Vikings converted nine of their 14 third downs as well.
Russell Wilson managed another 280-yard performance at 9.3 yards per attempt. Plus, the Seahawks rushed for almost 6 yards per carry. However, the Vikings still won the time of possession battle, 35 minutes to 25.
Meanwhile, on San Francisco’s end, who else but Aaron Rodgers could rally their team to a late-game victory? Unfortunately for the 49ers, their issues run much deeper than allowing Green Bay’s game-winning drive.
Shanahan needs to rush the ball to be successful, but the 49ers couldn’t rush the ball last Sunday. They ran for just 67 yards at 3.2 yards per attempt, the lowest total for the 49ers since Week 10 of last season.
Instead, the offense leaned on the passing attack. Jimmy Garoppolo completed 25 of his 40 attempts, but for only 6.4 yards per attempt, an interception, and a lost fumble. Losing the turnover battle 2-to-0 makes all the difference in a game decided by a last-second field goal.
Given last week’s failures, I think Shanahan and the 49ers will go with a ground-heavy attack in this matchup, and I think they’ll have a lot of success doing so.
The Seahawks’ front seven is super vulnerable to a competent rushing attack, which is why Alexander Mattison destroyed them last week. I think Trey Sermon and Co. do the same in Week 4.
The trends all point to Seattle in this spot, and I think the banged-up San Francisco secondary will have too many issues against Wilson and the high-flying Seattle pass attack.
I like Seattle to win, but it should be a hard-fought, high-scoring battle, which is reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
Prediction: Seattle 33, San Francisco 30
Seahawks vs 49ers Best Bets
Best Bet: Seahawks +3 (-115) at DraftKings
Wilson is 20-11-2 ATS as a road dog in his career and 26-14-4 ATS coming off of a loss. Meanwhile, Shanahan is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his head coaching career.
Currently, the 49ers have two cornerbacks and LB Dre Greenlaw listed as out on the injury report. The 49ers want to play man defense, and that won’t work against Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf — not that it would work even if the defense was healthy.
The Seahawks have won and covered in their last two battles with San Francisco, including on the road last January. Despite the public being so heavy on them, I think Seattle is the smart play in this spot, making this our NFL pick of the day.
Best Bet: Over 52 (-110) at DraftKings
This total opened all the way down at 46.5, and has been bet way up since. However, I’m still betting the Over in this spot.
There are so many defensive issues for both sides in this game, and the Seahawks and 49ers are already 7-2-1 to the Over in their last 10 meetings.
I’m expecting Russ to cook while his front seven continues to disappoint.
Seahawks vs 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: +260
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Seahawks Team Total Over 24.5 Points
- Russell Wilson 230+ Passing Yards
It’s simple: I think Seattle scores a ton on San Francisco’s short-handed defense, and I believe they’ll primarily do it through the air. Russell Wilson is sure to hit this number. After throwing for at least 230 yards in 10 of 16 contests in 2020, he’s 3-0 to this number in 2021.
Meanwhile, the total for this game is set at 51. I think the Seahawks can easily amass half of that, and I’m expecting them to do so in a winning effort. Add it all together, and this bet seems like a no-brainer.