Thursday Night Football Predictions Week 11 | TNF Picks & Patriots vs Falcons Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 26, 2022

The New England Patriots will visit Mercedes Benz Stadium to face off against the Atlanta Falcons in the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m ET on the NFL Network.

Entering Week 10, both the Patriots and the Falcons hold the No. 7 seed in their respective conferences, which means if the season ended today, both clubs would be in the NFL Playoffs as Wild Card teams.

I know it’s only November, but in the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football, both the Patriots and Falcons will be battling for their postseason lives.

Sure, there is a lot of time between now and the end of regular season play, but this isn’t the NHL, NBA, or MLB. Every single game is meaningful in the NFL, especially in the second half of the season.

The Patriots and Falcons may not be the sexiest TNF matchup, but the Super Bowl LI rematch will be an entertaining game. It will also be a meaningful game, which adds to the suspense.

Thursday Night Football Prediction Week 11

The Patriots and Falcons are two teams on a similar trajectory. Entering Week 10, the Patriots have won four of their past five games, including three straight following a 1-3 start to the year. Meanwhile, the Falcons also opened the season 1-3 but have now won three of their past four games.

What’s more, the Patriots and Falcons both have a tough out in Week 10 against the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. Both of these clubs could be coming off losses by the time their Thursday night bout is ready to kick off.

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Statistically, the Patriots are the better team in most phases. They are currently ranked 10th in scoring offense and fourth in scoring defense. However, keep in mind that New England popped for 54 points on the New York Jets a few weeks back, which pads the offensive scoring category.

The Falcons aren’t as good, but they are coming together on offense despite the loss of Calvin Ridley while finding ways to win tough, close divisional games.

The key for a Patriots win is focusing on what they do best: running the football behind Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson while allowing Mac Jones to surgically pick apart the enemy secondary.

New England’s defense hasn’t been great this season, but they have tightened their game up in recent weeks. Four games removed from getting gashed by the Cowboys at home, the Patriots dismantled the Jets and Carolina Panthers while containing Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

If the Falcons are going to win, they must play better defensively. The Falcons are one of the worst teams in defending the run, and they can also be thrown upon. From top to bottom, the Falcons’ defense is and has been their handicap.

There may be only one way the Falcons can pull off a win on Thursday night, which is to out-score Jones and the Patriots’ offense. This matchup will fall on the arm of Matt Ryan, who will likely be without his top weapon in Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle).

If Ryan is on, he can score on any defense. HC Arthur Smith has been finding ways to squeeze the most out of a thin offense all season long. He will have to win the chess match against Bill Belichick on TNF to give his team a shot.

TNF Week 11 Pick: New England Patriots 24, Atlanta Falcons 21

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Can Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons continue their momentum against the New England Patriots in Week 11 on Thursday Night Football? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends for 2021

  • The Over is 3-7.
  • The Underdog is 5-5 against the spread.
  • The Favorite is 8-2 on the moneyline.
  • The Home Team is 6-4.

*Anthony Cervino is 21-12 on his NFL Best Bets for 2021 for The Game Day.

Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 11

*NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of Thursday, November 18 at 9 AM ET.

TNF Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 (+100) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I like the Patriots to win, but the spread is quite generous. Not only is this game on the road for the Pats, but unlike the Jets and Panthers, they will face a competent quarterback in the form of Ryan. Ryan will keep this game close enough for the Falcons to stay within a touchdown.

TNF Best Bet: Under 47 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Patriots and Falcons have played in quite a few games this season in which the over has hit. However, the trend on TNF does not bode well for the Over. The Over is 3-7 this season’s TNF matchups.

This game could be slower-paced than what the Falcons are used to since the Pats enjoy running the ball. Running the ball will also keep Ryan and co. off the field.

The Falcons also struggle to run the football, and the Patriots have been exploited by other passing attacks this season. Keeping Atlanta’s passing attack off the field will be a priority for the Pats, favoring the Under for our NFL bet of the day.

TNF Best Bet: Patriots Moneyline (-300) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

I feel comfortable betting on the Patriots to win the game. They have the better team on both sides of the ball. They are also more balanced offensively and can control the pace of the game with a lead.

New England also has a superior defense, which will be the difference in this matchup.

Lastly, the Pats are 4-0 on the road this season.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 11 TNF Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 11 Best Bets.


Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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