2021 NFL MVP Early Futures Bets: Favorites, Sleepers, Tips & Picks

Last Updated: Mar 12, 2021

Now that Aaron Rodgers has officially been named the 2020 NFL MVP, it’s time to turn our attention to 2021 NFL MVP early futures, favorites and picks. Looking at the opening odds, you’ll see that all the players toward the top of the 2021 NFL MVP betting list have one thing in common: the position they play. The top 12 favorites for 2021 MVP early futures bets are all quarterbacks, but that shouldn’t be a surprise.

Recent history says a lot about who will likely win this award in 2021. Before Rodgers took home the 2020 hardware, Lamar Jackson won in 2019, Patrick Mahomes took home the trophy in 2018, and Tom Brady was named league MVP in 2017. Going back even further, we have Matt Ryan (2016), Cam Newton (2015), Rodgers (2014) and Peyton Manning (2013).

Noticing a trend here? These are all quarterbacks on teams that had great seasons.

The last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson all the way back in 2012. That being said, it’s no wonder that the favorites to win the 2021 NFL MVP are all quarterbacks.

2021 NFL MVP odds and lines courtesy of PointsBet.

2021 NFL MVP Early Futures Favorites & Picks

Top 5 NFL MVP Favorites

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB, Aaron Rodgers (+800)
  • Josh Allen. QB, Buffalo Bills (+1300)
  • Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+1300)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (+1500)

With Patrick Mahomes coming off another unreal season, one where he threw for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns, it is no wonder the 2018 MVP is again the betting favorite. If not for a 48-touchdown season from Rodgers, Mahomes would have run away with the award. These two are the only options at less than 10-to-1 odds, but that could again be money well spent.

The third-best odds go to Josh Allen, who received four first-place votes in the 2020 MVP race. If he can lead the Bills to back-to-back AFC East titles and another 4,500-yard season, then Allen could end up taking home the hardware.

Tied with Allen at 13-to-1 is Russell Wilson. Fun fact: Wilson has never received a single vote for the MVP award. That seems impossible as the Seahawks are always in the mix, but maybe this is the year he finally does enough to impress the voters. You have to like these odds as Wilson and Seattle will undoubtedly be in the mix for one of the top seeds in the NFC playoffs. If, and it’s a big if, Pete Carroll lets Russ cook, then he could cook up the 2021 MVP award.

And in the five-hole is Matthew Stafford, a player whose odds jumped significantly when he was traded from the Lions to the Rams. If the Rams win the NFC West and come away with the No. 1 or No. 2 seed then Stafford will 100% be in the MVP conversation. At 15-to-1 odds, he’s a player a will 100% have money on.

Beyond the top 5 favorites, there are a few other star QBs that are worthwhile bets for the NFL MVP. Here’s a run of some longer shots that I’d consider placing a wager on.

  • Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (+1700): Sitting tied for sixth with Super Bowl-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, Watson has a lot of value here, especially since Watson likely won’t be on the Texans come Week 1. Just like Stafford, his odds will get much, much shorter once he’s on a likely playoff contender. At 17-to-1, these are the best odds you’ll get on Watson heading into the 2021 NFL season — and I’m on board no matter where he ends up.
  • Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+1800): Two of the top 5 favorites for the NFL MVP award are in his division, but I like these longer odds for Kyler. Coming off an 8-8 season where the former No. 1 pick threw for 3,971 yards and 26 TDs while adding another 819 and 11 TDs on the ground, Murray simply has to win a few more games to be the in MVP conversation. It’s no easy task with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers in your division, but close to 20-to-1 odds make this a viable play.
  • Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans (+2500): Since taking over as the starting QB for the Titans, Tannehill has put up almost identical numbers to Mahomes. But for some odd reason, no one has taken notice. Coming off a season where he threw for 3,819 and 33 touchdowns, along with 619 rush yards and 7 rushing TDs, Tannehill’s stats aren’t far off from the MVP favorites. At 25-to-1 odds, he’s my favorite value pick of the bunch.
  • Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000): Let me give you a real longshot here. Big Ben checks off all of the boxes, and these odds are too plentiful to pass up. He plays the QB position (check). He’s in a pass-first offense (check). He’s on a team that is perennially atop the AFC standings (check). At 80-to-1, I’ll take Ben to win the MVP award before riding off into the sunset.

Remember a couple of things before placing a bet on the 2021 NFL MVP. It will be a quarterback, and that QB will be on a team that secured the top seed in their conference. If you can pinpoint that player now, then you’ll be sitting pretty with a winning ticket, come this time next year.

2021 NFL MVP Futures Bets: Best Pick

Patrick Mahomes (+500)

This might seem like a cop out, but getting 5-to-1 odds on Patrick Mahomes is still the way to go. If not for Aaron Rodgers notching close to 50 TDs, Mahomes’ 38 TDs and 4,740 yards would have netted him a second MVP award. Bet Pat now as these are the best odds you’ll get all season.

2021 NFL MVP Futures Bets: Sleeper Pick

Ryan Tannehill (+2500)

Playing off my Mahomes best pick, Ryan Tannehill has quietly put up nearly identical numbers to the 2018 MVP since taking over as the Titans’ starting QB. Tannehill had 40 total TDs (33 passing and 7 rushing) and had more than 4,400 all-purpose yards (3,819 passing and 619 rushing) last season, but an 11-5 year and an AFC South title wasn’t enough to put him in the MVP conversation. Seemingly, the only way this will come to fruition is if the Titans lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I’ll take my chances and will have money on this 25-to-1 shot.

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