Falcons 2021 Win Total Bet: Which Pick On Atlanta’s Over/Under?

Last Updated: May 26, 2021

Here’s The Game Day’s tip on the Atlanta Falcons 2021 Win Total Bet Over/Under. See what our pick is for wagering on this 2021 Falcons Over/Under for wins.

Falcons 2021 Win Total Bet: Which Pick On Atlanta’s Over/Under?

Atlanta Falcons Win Total Over/Under: 7.5 wins

  • Over 7.5 (-145)
  • Under 7.5 (+120)

The 2021 Atlanta Falcons Win Total Over/Under, odds and lines are provided courtesy of BetMGM. BetMGM has a welcome offer for a Second-Chance Bet of up to $600. Use promo code THEGAMEDAY or click here to sign up for a new account.

Atlanta Falcons 2021 Schedule Opponents

  • Week 1: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
  • Week 2: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Week 3: at New York Giants
  • Week 4: vs. Washington Football Team
  • Week 5: vs. New York Jets
  • Week 6: BYE
  • Week 7: at Miami Dolphins
  • Week 8: vs. Carolina Panthers
  • Week 9: at New Orleans Saints
  • Week 10: at Dallas Cowboys
  • Week 11: vs. New England Patriots
  • Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Week 13: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Week 14: at Carolina Panthers
  • Week 15: at San Francisco 49ers
  • Week 16: vs. Detroit Lions
  • Week 17: at Buffalo Bills
  • Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints

The Falcons had a 2020 to forget in nearly every respect. Atlanta finished with a 4-12 mark that placed them dead last in the NFC South for the first time since 2007 and gave them the conference’s worst record by a half-game over the 4-11-1 Eagles. The debacle unsurprisingly cost head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff their jobs and led to a fairly extensive housecleaning this offseason.

The new man in charge of the on-field product, Arthur Smith, could ultimately prove to be an integral hire if he’s able to replicate the success he had reviving Ryan Tannehill’s career in Tennessee. With Smith as his offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020, the former Dolphins signal-caller completed 67.3 percent of his passes and posted a 55:13 TD:INT across 28 games. Smith could arguably have an easier project on his hands in Matt Ryan, who, despite Atlanta’s atrocious team mark, threw for 4,581 yards and posted a 26:11 TD:INT across 16 games last season.

Ryan should still have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to work with as his top two receivers, although there have been Julio Jones trade rumors swirling even before training camp. The 2021 NFL Draft also brought superstar tight end Kyle Pitts, which is essentially like adding another speed wideout, except one with a 245-pound frame. The bad news is that there may not much more to work with beyond those three, however.

Ryan operated with much of a viable running game last season, and although Todd Gurley was sent packing, the combination of Mike Davis and part-time receiver Cordarrelle Patterson may not prove to be that much more effective. The receiving depth behind the top two is also adequate but not equipped to keep up with the likes of the Falcons’ division mates if Jones and/or Ridley miss significant time.

The pass rush doesn’t seem to have gotten any better through offseason additions after managing just 29 sacks last season, while Atlanta also gave up an NFL-high 293.6 passing yards per contest in ’20 yet counts journeyman safety Duron Harmon and second-round safety Richie Grant, who showed good ball-hawking skills at UCF but was clocked at just 4.57 in the 40 during his pro day, as its most notable additions.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, the issues just detailed in the prior two paragraphs figure to be what primarily caps their upside in 2021.

To begin with, all three of the team’s NFC South mates sport impressive pass-catching corps and quarterbacks that can pick apart defenses to varying degrees. That includes likely Saints starter Jameis Winston, who, despite his turnover issues in the past, can certainly sling the ball downfield. Then, Carolina’s Sam Darnold is better than what he looked like in the Jets’ quagmire and gets a significant personnel upgrade around him with the Panthers. Tom Brady? No explanation necessary for the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Additionally, Atlanta’s non-division schedule includes some very tough draws, Road games at Miami, Dallas and San Francisco could be extremely challenging for a team with a porous secondary and questionable pass rush, while an early-January trip to Buffalo promises a completely new level of misery. Moreover, the Falcons were 1-5 in the division a year ago; it wouldn’t be out of the question to only see them make a one-game improvement on that, which could well serve as the foundation for another losing season.

Atlanta Falcons 2021 Win Total Bet Pick

Falcons To Win Under 7.5 Games in 2021-2022 NFL Season (+120)

As already implied, the Falcons may well have found themselves a gem of a head coach in Smith and yet still experience plenty of struggles in his first year. While Pitts represents an elite infusion of talent, there was still too little of a personnel makeover for a team that only won four games a season ago. Drew Brees’ retirement may help Atlanta to an extent in the division, but the NFC South still doesn’t seem likely to be kind to the Falcons and the rest of the schedule could well conspire to help at least 11 losses become a reality.

With the Under at plus money and the possibility that Jones is either moved or misses multiple games if he does stay (seven absences in ’20), Atlanta winning seven games or fewer is worth taking a flyer on.


Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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