With the baseball season over, Kevin Davis (aka Professor Props) is giving out his best NBA Player Props. Read about the three players that he is targeting for Thursday night’s NBA slate.
All NBA gameday odds and lines current as of Thursday, November 4, at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Kevin Davis NBA season record: 4-0 (+4.12 units, +82.4% ROI)
NBA Prop Bets of the Day: Best Basketball Props Today 11/4/21
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (7:30 pm ET)
Jimmy Butler: Over 22.5 Points (-113) at BetRivers
Wager: 2 Units
Bam Adebayo: Over 18.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
The Boston Celtics average the most personal fouls in the NBA at 22 per game. Miami is second in the league with 21.6 fouls per game. Both teams will face each other in what should be a closely-contested game on Thursday night.
As a result of both team’s tendencies, I am looking to target the right Overs on high usage offensive players with a good record of getting to the line. As a result, I believe that both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will surpass their expected point totals tonight.
Butler is averaging 25 points per game, which is the highest mark of his career. However, it is not inconceivable that he keeps up his strong performance. Butler is averaging 16.1 field goal attempts per game and 9.0 free throw attempts per game.
As a backcourt player who averages just 1.3 three-point attempts per game this season, Butler’s style of play is well suited for Boston’s foul-prone defense. In his last game against Dallas, Butler went 15-17 from the charity stripe, which helped him to score 23 points despite making only 36.4% of his field goal attempts.
I expect Butler to have a big game against the Celtics, even if the Heat lose.
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Adebayo is in a similar position to Butler, averaging a career-high 20.8 points per game so far this season. While it’s slightly concerning that the Celtics have done well against centers this year, based on Adebayo’s usage and ability to get to the line, he should have Over 18.5 points tonight.
Adebayo has yet to attempt a three-pointer this season, which means that as a frontcourt player, his scoring is much more consistent than a perimeter player. Adebayo is currently averaging 14.7 field goal attempts and 6.8 free throw attempts per game, both of which are career-high marks.
Against Al Horford and the Celtics, Adebayo should go Over his point total tonight, making this our NBA bet of the day.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (10:00 pm ET)
Jae Crowder: Over 6.5 Rebounds (+110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Jae Crowder: Yes Double-Double (+900) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton missed the last game with a lower leg injury. For tonight’s game, he is listed as questionable, and my gut says that he either doesn’t play or only plays about 20 minutes tonight. The Suns are heavy favorites, so I don’t see why they would not be cautious with Ayton.
As a result of Ayton’s possible absence, I believe that Jae Crowder should have a big night. Against the Pelicans on Tuesday night, Javale McGee started in Ayton’s place but only played 19 minutes. SF Mikal Bridges played for 42 minutes but grabbed only one rebound.
That leaves Crowder as the only starting frontcourt player who can be a reliable rebounder.
Crowder only stands 6-feet-6-inches, but even with Ayton on the court, he’s still a capable rebounder. On the year, Crowder is averaging 5.8 per game.
Crowder had eight rebounds in his last game against New Orleans. Against Cleveland — when Ayton played for only 24 minutes — Crowder had seven rebounds. At plus money, Crowder should have more than 6.5 rebounds. He might even have a double-double, which is why I am taking on flier on that at (+900) odds.
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