Michael Rathburn is here with your MLB Betting Props of the Day for July 28. Which July 28 earned runs props make up the Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 7/28/21?
MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today
Jorge Lopez, SP, Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins (7:05 p.m. ET)
Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-120)
Wager: 1 unit
With a 2-12 record and 5.84 ERA, Lopez may not seem like an obvious candidate to bet the under on. If you dig a little deeper, though, you’ll find that he’s only averaging 3.05 earned runs per start, as he typically only pitches four or five innings.
He’s also in a good spot at home tonight against the Marlins, who have one of the weaker lineups in baseball. Before erupting for 16 runs over their last two games, they were averaging just 3.35 runs per game in July and have struggled to consistently score runs on the road all season.
Look for Miami to come back to earth a bit tonight against Lopez, who allowed just one run in his most recent start against the Nationals.
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Jordan Lyles, SP, Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (8:05 p.m. ET)
Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-110)
Wager: 1 unit
Similar to Lopez, Lyles is another pitcher with an appealing home matchup against a terrible offense. While his ERA currently sits at 5.20, it’s a more palatable 4.36 over his last 13 appearances (12 starts).
Also like Lopez, Lyles hasn’t been surrendering a ton of earned runs due to his lower innings totals. He’s averaged 3.16 earned runs per start this season, including 2.85 runs per start over his last 13 starts.
It also helps that Arizona has the worst record in baseball this year, largely because their offense has been so bad. They rank bottom-5 in numerous categories among National League teams, including runs, homers, and OPS. They’ve been especially ineffective on the road, where their OPS is roughly 70 points lower than it is at home.
All things considered, Lyles should be able to keep Arizona at bay tonight and cash the under here.
