After splitting the first two games of the NLDS in Milwaukee, the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers will square off in a pivotal Game 3 in Atlanta.
Following a 3-0 loss in Game 2, the Brewers will send All-Star starter Freddy Peralta to the bump for Game 3 against Ian Anderson, who is in his second MLB season. Offense has been hard to come by in this series with just six total runs over the first two games, but perhaps we’ll see more scoring with a change of scenery in Game 3.
Below are our NLDS Game 3 predictions and best bets for Brewers vs Braves. Please note that all MLB gameday odds and lines are current as of 11 AM EST on Monday, October 11.
Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, October 11, 1:07 PM EST on TBS
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Freddy Peralta, Brewers (10-5, 2.81 ERA)
- Ian Anderson, Braves (9-5, 3.58 ERA)
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In Game 2, the Braves evened the series with a 3-0 victory behind Max Fried, who’s been dominant in the second half. For Game 3, however, they’ll lean on a young pitcher who has struggled recently.
The 23-year-old Anderson faded down the stretch of his first full season. Perhaps feeling overused, he allowed a 4.39 ERA and 5.98 FIP over his final five starts. He also surrendered seven home runs during that span, and his results likely would have been even uglier were it not for his good fortune on batted balls (.203 BABIP).
Anderson also doesn’t miss a ton of bats, averaging fewer than a strikeout per inning this season. Peralta, on the other hand, compiled an outstanding 12.2 K/9 rate and 0.97 WHIP this year, while his 3.12 FIP supported his 2.81 ERA. On a per-inning basis, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League this year.
Accordingly, look for Milwaukee’s lineup to score some runs against Anderson while Peralta keeps Atlanta in check.
Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Pick: Brewers 3, Braves 1
Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Best Bets
Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline (+101) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Milwaukee may be on the road, but they have the clear advantage at starting pitcher in Game 3. Anderson has been trending in the wrong direction lately and could continue to struggle against a Brewers lineup that is due for a breakout.
Peralta has been more reliable this year and is the more seasoned starter, so he’s less likely to get rattled in this crucial postseason matchup.
Best Bet: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) at BetMGM
Wager: 1.43 Units
Peralta was one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this year, fanning 33.6% of all batters he faced. He’s in a prime spot to rack up plenty of whiffs today against a Braves offense that posted MLB’s ninth-highest strikeout rate this year at 24.0%.
Assuming Peralta lasts four or five innings, he should be able to notch at least six punchouts, which he did in 22 of his 28 regular-season appearances this year.
- Read our full Brewers vs Braves NLDS Predictions & Best Bets.
Best Bet: Under 8 Total Runs (-112) at Unibet
Wager: 1.25 Units
Atlanta’s roster has gone 7-for-45 against Peralta (.156) while Milwaukee’s roster is just 1-for-16 against Anderson. Both teams haven’t found much success against the opposition and while it’s a small sample size, it’s still worth noting. With both offenses struggling, I’m taking the Under for my MLB bet of the day.