The Milwaukee Brewers won the first game of a five-game series in the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves, 2-1. This series will more than likely be the lowest scoring series on the MLB slate with premier pitching facing hitting that has struggled as of late.
Between both teams, the Braves and Brewers had a combined nine hits through nine innings in Game 1 and there’s reason to believe that will continue into today’s Game 2.
In Game 2, it’ll be Max Fried for the Braves and Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers. Fried, a lefty, had an ERA of 1.54 September. Fried has been one of the more consistent lefties in all of baseball and continues to give the Braves chances to win games going six quality innings almost regularly.
Woodruff, on the other hand, will take the ball for the Brewers in Game 2 and has a 3.12 xFIP in the last 30 days along with 31.7 percent strikeouts and just 3.2 walks. This series seems to be pitching dominant. Can either offense score a big chunk of runs in Game 2?
Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 2 Prediction
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, October 9, 5:07 PM EST on TBS
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Max Fried, Braves (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
- Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (9-10, 2.56 ERA)
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Max Fried practically showed off to finish the regular season. In the last 30 days, Fried has a 3.38 xFIP with 21.8 percent strikeouts and 1.3 percent walks. His BABIP is at .172 in that same time frame thanks to over 57 percent ground balls on the season.
Fried has also limited line drives, which is also why his BABIP is low. It’s not neccesairly just really good fielding. He’s earning outs with balls in play by the way he pitches.
The Brewers roster is 7-for-26 against Fried, between Christian Yelich, Eduardo Escobar, Jackie Bradley Jr. Lorenzo Cain and Willy Adames, but none of these players even have a single RBI against him.
Still, the Brewers have an ISO of .314 and wOBA of .350 against lefties with 18.7 percent strikeouts and 12.2 percent walks in the last 30 days and that can’t go unnoticed.
Woodruff allows way more line drives, less ground balls and more hard contact, despite striking out over 31 percent of batters in the last 30 days. All of this is why his BABIP is over .300 while Fried’s is under .175.
The Braves profile well as they’re hitting 24.6 percent line drives against righties in the last 30 days and still have an ISO of .192. With Woodruff giving up a lot of line drives and less ground balls, there’s reason to believe the Braves can send a couple balls into the gap.
While Woodruff has struggled when balls are in play, he hasn’t struggled getting strikeouts, which has saved him plenty of times this year.
Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 2 Pick: Braves 5, Brewers 1
Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 2 Best Bets
Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (+115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Braves haven’t been nearly as hot at the plate as they would’ve hoped but the reality is that Woodruff is allowing 33.3 percent line drives and inducing just 28.2 percent ground balls. So while he’s getting a high amount of strikeouts, when balls are put in play, there’s a good chance it becomes a hit.
While the Brewers profile well against Fried and dominate lefties, Fried has been dominant as of late and really not making many mistakes. Give me the Braves to even the series.
Best Bet: Brandon Woodruff Over 5.5 K’s (-143) at BetMGM
Wager: 1.43 Units
Woodruff is striking out 31.7 percent of batters in the last 30 days while the Braves lineup is striking out 26.3 percent of the time, without even including the pitcher’s spot. Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, Travis d’Arnaud, and Dansby Swanson are all striking out over 32 percent of the time against righties. Even if he allows a run or two, I like him to rack up the strikeouts.
- Read our full Braves vs Brewers NLDS Predictions & Best Bets.
Best Bet: Braves Over 3.5 Team Total (+100) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
From my prediction above, I like the Braves to score five runs in this game. You’re getting Over 3.5 for the Braves team total at +100. There’s clearly some value there, knowing the Braves are hitting plenty of line drives, going up against a pitcher that has allowed so many line drives and struggles to induce ground balls.
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