2021 ALDS Game 4 Predictions | Astros vs White Sox Best Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Oct 12, 2021

The White Sox took a gamble on Sunday night, hoping that starting pitcher Dylan Cease would get the job done for Carlos Rodón to make an appearance in the postseason for Game 4.

Earlier this season, Rodón was once considered for the AL Cy Young. After being sidelined with an injury, Rodon lost his spot in the race and almost lost his spot in the starting rotation for the playoffs.

I wouldn’t necessarily say Cease got the job done on Sunday, as he went 1 and 2/3 innings while allowing three runs on two hits and three walks. However, the White Sox found a way to win despite his subpar performance, and now Chicago has a chance to force Game 5 with a win in Game 4 with Rodón on the mound.

Can Rodón give the White Sox a quality outing as the fourth man in the rotation? Here are our picks and predictions for Astros vs. White Sox ALDS Game 4.

Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 9 AM EST on Tuesday, October 12.

Astros vs. White Sox ALDS Game 4 Prediction

Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox, October 12, 2:07 PM EST on FS1

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Lance McCullers Jr., Astros (13-5, 3.16 ERA)
  • Carlos Rodón, White Sox (13-5, 2.37 ERA)

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The White Sox have forced a Game 4 in the ALDS with a 12-6 win over the Astros in Game 3. At home, the White Sox bats came alive and tallied nine runs in the first four innings, never looking back on their way to victory.

Again, the White Sox will send out Rodón, a left-handed pitcher who had one of the best seasons in the MLB this year. However, due to an injury later in the season, Rodón hasn’t been able to go deeper than five innings since his return, despite having a 2.00 ERA through his last 18 innings.

The Astros offense has been much worse against lefties this season, hitting only 13.9 percent line drives in the last 30 days, along with a wOBA of .325.

There’s reason to believe Rodón could have success against this Astros lineup. He’s striking out 34 percent of batters in the last 30 days and has limited line drives to just 17.2 percent. Rodón also hasn’t allowed much hard contact, which has helped keep his BABIP down to .179.

On the other hand, Lance McCullers Jr. is coming off a dominant Game 1 outing in which he blanked Chicago over 6 2/3 scoreless innings, lowering his career postseason ERA to 2.87. He’s now tossed six consecutive quality starts dating back to the regular season and has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings.

The White Sox should have more success against McCullers in Game 4 after seeing him earlier in the series, however, so there’s reason to believe they’ll get the best of him today.

Astros vs. White Sox Game 4 Pick: White Sox 4, Astros 2

Carlos Rodon, SP, Chicago White Sox

Coming back from injury, Carlos Rodón makes his 2021 postseason debut as the Chicago White Sox look to force a Game 5 against the Houston Astros. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

White Sox vs. Astros ALDS Game 4 Best Bets

Best Bet: White Sox Moneyline (-115) at WynnBET

Wager: 1.23 Units

If you’ve been reading my articles about this series, you know just how upset I’ve been that Rodón hasn’t pitched yet. Chicago put him on the roster and then let it all ride in Game 3 without Rodón.

This is a guy with a 2.37 ERA in the regular season that might not have pitched in the postseason if not for yesterday’s win. Either way, he’s getting his chance today, and I expect him to shine against an Astros lineup that hasn’t been nearly as good against lefties this season.

Best Bet: Astros Under 4.5 Total Runs (-134) at Unibet

Wager: 1.39 Units

With rain in the forecast, the advantage goes to the pitcher. Rodón, again, has been dominant all season long and has held the Astros roster to a .194 average through 103 at-bats. He’s allowed just two home runs and one double. The rest of those hits were singles.

The Astros are hitting under 14 percent line drives against lefties and when you’re not hitting hard line drives, it’s hard to score runs against a pitcher that doesn’t walk many and strikes out plenty.

Best Bet: Under 4.5 Runs First Five Innings (-102) at FanDuel

Wager: 1.05 Unit

As mentioned above, McCullers has been dominant lately and in the postseason in general. After failing to score against him in Game 1, the White Sox could struggle to put points on the board against him in Game 4 as well. Throw in Rodon’s ability as well, and Game 4 figures to be a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

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