After a wild three games at Fenway Park earlier this week, the 2021 ALCS returns to Texas with the Houston Astros up 3-2 on the Boston Red Sox. The last four games have all been blowouts, making it difficult to predict which offense will explode on a given night.
The Astros are in the driver’s seat after winning the last two games by a combined score of 18-3. They now have two chances to close out the series at home and advance to their third World Series appearance in five years.
Will Houston clinch the AL pennant tonight? Or will Boston live to fight another day? Check out our ALCS Game 6 predictions and best bets to find out!
Please note that all Red Sox vs Astros odds and lines are current as of 10 AM EST on Friday, October 22.
Red Sox vs Astros ALCS Game 6 Prediction
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, October 22, 8:08 PM EST on FS1
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox (11-9, 3.75 ERA)
- Luis Garcia, Astros (11-8, 3.48 ERA)
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This series has been exceptionally high-scoring thus far, as these two talented offenses have combined to score 59 runs over the first five games. Not surprisingly, the Over has hit in every game — a trend that will likely continue in Game 6 considering how both starters have struggled in this series.
Nate Eovaldi has been Boston’s best and most consistent starting pitcher this year, but he’s coming off an ugly relief outing in Game 4 that saw him allow four runs while recording just two outs. The Red Sox are hoping he performs more like he did during his Game 2 start, when he allowed three runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings.
As for Luis Garcia, both of his postseason outings have been disastrous this year. He’s allowed 10 runs on seven hits and six walks in just 3 2/3 innings, so the Astros are hoping he can bounce back in a major way tonight.
Boston’s offense was red-hot earlier in the playoffs but has scored just one run over their last 17 innings. They’ll be in a prime spot to rebound against Garcia, but if their lineup continues to struggle it’s going to be very difficult for them to win this game.
Meanwhile, Eovaldi will try to cool down a Houston lineup that has scored nine runs in each of the last two games and has all the momentum on its side. Excluding Tuesday’s relief appearance, he’s gone at least five innings in all three of his postseason starts this year while compiling a 3.45 ERA and 19:2 K/BB ratio, so he should be able to keep the Red Sox in the game.
Both pitchers will be on a short leash tonight, especially with both bullpens fully rested following an off day. I think Boston will win since they have the better starting pitcher, but their offense will need to attack Garcia early and give Eovaldi some run support.
ALCS Game 6 Pick: Red Sox 6, Astros 4
Red Sox vs Astros ALCS Game 6 Best Bets
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+100) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, Eovaldi has been fantastic in the playoffs while Garcia’s been terrible. That alone should be enough to back Boston tonight at plus money according to our MLB gameday odds.
I think the Red Sox score early against Garcia and knock him out of the game, as they did in Game 2. Game 4 hiccup aside, Eovaldi’s been mostly unstoppable against some of the best offenses in baseball during these playoffs, so I expect him to get the job done again tonight.
Read all of our 2021 ALCS Game 6 Betting Tips
Best Bet: Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-162) at FoxBet
Wager: 1 Unit
I generally like to play it safe in postseason games, and asking the Red Sox to score four runs at -162 is pretty fair. Boston has already hit three grand slams in this series and should put runs on the board against Garcia, who’s had trouble spotting his pitches in the playoffs.
The Red Sox have scored at least four runs in seven of their 10 postseason games thus far. I’m confident they’ll do it again and cash our MLB bet of the day.
Best Bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Rafael Devers has been on fire at the plate recently, hitting safely in nine straight games. He’s also blasted eight home runs over his last 12 games, so he’s absolutely locked in right now.
Boston’s third baseman destroyed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .280/.357/.621 batting line this year. Look for him to stay hot with at least one extra-base hit or a couple of singles tonight.