Here is our best MLB Betting Pick Of The Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 8/30/21. All odds for August 30 MLB bet picks were obtained from PointsBet.
The St. Louis Cardinals saved us on Friday, scoring three runs in the fifth inning to cash our ticket and end the week on a high note. Let’s see if we can pick up where we left off with my top recommendation for the best MLB bets today.
MLB Pick Today
For in-depth analysis of this MLB pick of the day, continue reading.
Season Betting Record
- Overall: 34-21 (+9.16 units)
- Team Totals: 12-7 (+2.62 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 18-8-3 (+8.39 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)
Sportsbook Play of the Day
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MLB Bet Of The Day 8/30/21
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: MIL RHP Corbin Burnes @ SFG RHP Johnny Cueto
The Milwaukee Brewers have been swinging hot bats lately, averaging 4.96 runs per game in August which is above their season average of 4.63. They’ll need to keep hitting to keep pace with the San Francisco Giants, who have one of the best offenses in the National League this year.
Milwaukee will look to take advantage of an appetizing matchup tonight against Johnny Cueto, who’s been extremely inconsistent this year with a 7-6 record and a 3.73 ERA. He’s also having a rough August thus far, giving up eight runs on 16 hits and eight walks in just 15 innings across his three starts. Based on his 4.75 xERA, he’s lucky his real ERA isn’t higher with all the baserunners he’s allowed lately.
Now in his 14th MLB season, the 35-year-old former All-Star has become quite hittable. Opponents are batting .291/.340/.484 against him since the beginning of May. He’s also allowed a career-worst 38.0% hard-hit rate this season, according to Statcast. Pitching to contact can be effective if you keep the ball on the ground, but Cueto’s 38.1% ground-ball rate is the lowest of his career.
That doesn’t bode well for his matchup against the Brewers, who have been MLB’s second-hardest team to strike out this month. They’re going to put a lot of balls in play against Cueto, and odds are a good number of them will be hit hard.
The last time they faced each other on August 8, Milwaukee tagged him for four runs in 5 1/3 innings. With Christian Yelich finally coming around after a slow start, the Brewers have several hitters who can do damage against Cueto such as Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Kolten Wong, and Luis Urias.
Milwaukee should be able to reach base consistently in the early innings, keeping the pressure on Cueto and potentially forcing him to make a mistake or two (he’s yielded 12 home runs over his last 12 starts). Even if the Brewers only score twice in the first five, we’ll push and get our money back on my best MLB bet pick today.