Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 8/3/21. All odds for August 3 MLB bet picks were obtained from PointsBet.
So many of these playoff teams have completely different lineups than what we’re used to seeing. It’s taking a couple of days to get used to all of the trade deadline moves, but it won’t take much longer!
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 8/3/21.
- Overall: 27-19 (+4.76 units)
- Team Totals: 10-7 (+0.62 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 13-6-3 (+5.99 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)
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MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 8/3/21
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: BAL LHP Alex Wells @ NYY LHP Nester Cortes Jr.
Yankees Over 3 Runs in First Five Innings (-125)
Wager: 1 unit
The Yankees haven’t announced a starter for today’s game at this time, but it’s looking to be Nester Cortes. However, the Orioles have and it’ll be Alex Wells, a left-handed pitcher with a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings on the season.
Wells has allowed seven runs on 12 hits and five walks, including three home runs in his last two starts. On the season, he’s got a WHIP of 1.70 and is allowing 1.76 home runs per nine innings. He’s also walking 12.5 percent of batters and striking out just 16.7 percent of batters faced.
You’d think maybe Wells has been unlucky with an ERA of 5.28, but he’s actually been worse than his ERA is sharing. Wells has a FIP of 5.90 along with an xFIP of 6.03. The only reason Wells’ ERA is lower is that he’s been able to leave 78 percent of runners on base this season.
That number is about to decrease against the Yankees. The projected lineup has crushed lefties in the last 30 days behind an ISO of .237 and a wOBA of .429. They’re also walking 17.1 percent of the time as a unit and striking out just 22 percent of the time.
Wells, in those same 30 days, has allowed an xFIP of 5.26 while walking 10.2 percent of batters. He’s only inducing 30.3 percent of ground balls and giving up 54.5 percent hard contact.
Righties have absolutely smoked Wells in his last 33 plate appearances with a .433 wOBA and ISO of .345. He’s also only striking out 12.1 percent of righties and walking 9.1 percent of them.
While the Yankees will have a couple more lefties in the lineup compared to last week, they’ll still have six righties along with Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, and Rougned Odor, who all still have legitimate power potential against the lefty.
For the Yankees, it’ll take a couple of walks, base hits, and one or two long balls to get the job done against Wells and the Orioles bullpen. New York fooled the public yesterday, but they’ll be back today.