Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 7/27/21. All odds for July 27 MLB bet picks were obtained from DraftKings.
The slugfest we predicted between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays didn’t quite materialize last night, leaving us short of our total runs wager. That was a huge bummer, but baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. We’ll try to come back stronger with today’s play.
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/27/21.
- Overall: 24-19 (+1.76 units)
- Team Totals: 10-7 (+0.62 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 10-6-3 (+2.99 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)
MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/27/21
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: WSH RHP Erick Fedde @ PHI LHP Matt Moore
Nationals Over 2.5 Runs In First Five Innings (-105)
Wager: 1 unit
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Believe it or not, the Washington Nationals have been one of the most successful teams against left-handing pitching this year. Washington’s batted .269/.348/.443 versus southpaws, ranking first among all MLB teams in OPS (.791) and wOBA (.343) against left-siders.
The Nationals have also been tearing the cover off the ball lately, averaging 4.94 runs per game since the calendar flipped to June. They’ve been more productive on the road this year as well, averaging 4.64 runs per away game versus 4.08 runs per home game.
Washington will be in a good spot to pad those totals tonight against Matt Moore, who’s 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA, a 5.68 FIP, and a 1.60 WHIP in 42 innings this year. His numbers are even worse as a starter and he’s also been getting torched at home, where he has a 7.91 ERA, a 1.91 WHIP, and a .955 opponent OPS in 19 2/3 innings.
The most alarming stat for Moore might be his struggles against righties this year. Right-handed batters have mashed him to the tune of a .405 wOBA, which bodes well for the Nationals’ offense. Washington’s lineup will be almost exclusively right-handed other than Juan Soto, who’s been crushing everything in sight since the All-Star break.
With Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, and others, there’s potential for everyone in this lineup to do damage against Moore. Even Rene Rivera, the projected catcher for the Nationals, has two home runs in six career at-bats against him. Accordingly, the Nats should have no problem putting runs on the board against Moore, making them strong bets to cash this ticket for us tonight.
