Here’s our 2021 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers & Fallers For MLB Spring Training. These players are either climbing up or dropping down fantasy baseball draft boards. Should you buy their new fantasy baseball draft value? Or is Josh Shepardson advising you with different fantasy baseball draft tips?
2021 MLB Spring Training is in full swing, and fantasy baseball drafts are piling up. The average draft position (ADP) for fantasy baseball players is changing as position battles take shape and free agents find homes. I saved the FantasyPros Consensus ADP from February 15. Below, you’ll see notable FantasyPros ADP risers and fallers since then as of March 6.
2021 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers & Fallers
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
- Feb. 15 ADP: 4.8
- March 6 ADP: 4.6
Mike Trout’s rise doesn’t appear to be worthy of inclusion at first blush, but he’s gone from the clear fifth player selected in drafts by ADP to a tie with a forthcoming faller for the fourth player off the board. That’s a noteworthy change when looking at first-round players.
Trout sits fourth in my overall player rankings, so I’m on board with his ADP. However, I’d prefer the mystery player he’s tied with for ADP. Trout’s combo of an elite floor and ceiling is unrivaled by nearly any other player, though.
Trout ranks sixth in runs (252), first in homers (101), tied for 14th in RBIs, and 14th in batting average (.298) among qualified hitters since 2018, according to FanGraphs. He’s also swiped 36 bases in that time frame, but 24 of those stolen bases were in 2018. He stole only 11 in 2019 and just one last year.
A rebound to double-digit steals is possible, but a return to his 20-plus stolen base days feels unlikely. Regardless, the rest of his statistical profile is immaculate.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
- Feb. 15 ADP: - 36.3
- March 6 ADP: - 31.6
A second member of the Los Angeles Angels, Anthony Rendon, is on the rise. I’m still higher than the consensus, but his climb is a move in the right direction.
He’s an elite four-category contributor. Rendon ranks 16th in runs (234), fifth in RBIs (249), tied for 37th in homers (67), and fourth in batting average (.310) among qualified hitters since 2018.
The veteran third baseman hit the ground running in his first season with the Angels last year, and he’s the type of safe pick worth popping at the back end of the second round or top of the third in 12-team mixed leagues.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays
- Feb. 15 ADP: 55.8
- March 6 ADP: 49.6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the first riser who I can’t get on board with drafting. I discussed him as a bust previously, and an earlier ADP enhances his bust potential. Additionally, a top-50 pick saps almost any potential of producing a fantasy line that results in a positive return on investment, requiring a full-blown breakout to be a viable pick at his cost.
More Fantasy Baseball Players On The Rise
- Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, New York Yankees (68.3 to 62.0)
- Carlos Carrasco, SP, New York Mets (73.3 to 64.4)
- Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (85.3 to 78.4)
- Marcus Semien, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (147.3 to 137.0)
- Kirby Yates, RP, Toronto Blue Jays (168.8 to 150.6)
- Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Oakland Athletics (178.3 to 154.4)
- Shohei Ohtani, SP/UTIL, Los Angeles Angels (199.8 to 187.0)
- Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners (230.5 to 204.0)
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox (313.5 to 292.4)
- C.J. Cron, 1B, Colorado Rockies (368.0 to 321.5)
I fully support Carlos Carrasco’s rise, previously going so far as to highlight him as an NL Cy Young Award betting value.
Kirby Yates and Trevor Rosenthal entered the offseason as free agents, and both landed on teams where they project to close. I’m enamored with Rosenthal, pegging him as a top-120 player.
Jarred Kelenic and C.J. Cron are additions to the sleepers and breakouts list, and I advocate reaching to secure both in drafts. Buy into their new 2021 Fantasy Baseball ADPs.
Shohei Ohtani is pumping cheddar and missing bats from the bump, and he’s reached the seats and raked at the dish this spring, too. The two-way star’s fantasy value is dependent upon league settings and fantasy host site. He’s most valuable at websites where he’s one player and in leagues with daily lineup changes, allowing gamers to maximize his pitching and hitting contributions.
Fantasy Baseball ADP Fallers
Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
- Feb. 15 ADP:4.0
- March 6 ADP: 4.6
Juan Soto sits atop my overall rankings. His slide into a tie for the fourth player in ADP with Trout makes him a steal.
The 22-year-old outfielder slashed an eye-popping .351/.490/.695 with 13 homers, 39 runs, 37 RBIs, and six stolen bases in 196 plate appearances last year. His batted-ball data is elite, and his command of the strike zone and ability to make loud contact is otherworldly.
Soto’s a little slower than the average runner, but he’s an efficient base stealer with 23 in 28 attempts in his young career. Further, working on his agility to improve his base-stealing ability was reportedly an offseason focus. It’s prudent to take reports like that with a grain of salt, but he did steal 12 bases in 13 attempts in 2019. Reaching the teens again is a probable outcome.
The rest of his profile is elite. Soto has an attainable ceiling of 40-plus homers, more than 100 runs, 100-plus RBIs, and a batting average north of .300.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies
- 2-15-21 ADP: 39.8
- 3-6-21 ADP: 48.0
J.T. Realmuto‘s ADP fall is predictable. He fractured his thumb, creating uncertainty about his availability for Opening Day. He recently had an X-ray and the hard cast removed, and Realmuto projects to be ready for Opening Day or shortly after.
I’m averse to drafting a catcher early, but there might still be a window for selecting him at a slightly depressed cost if you’re a gamer who subscribes to spending an early pick for the positional advantage.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals
- 2-15-21 ADP: 38.8
- 3-6-21 ADP:43.6
I have Whit Merrifield ranked 35 overall, which is closer to his previous ADP. I’m baffled by the ADP dip. As a leadoff hitter, his RBI contributions will be light but not non-existent. Otherwise, he’ll chip in across the board, making the biggest waves in runs, batting average, and stolen bases.
Merrifield ranks tied for 14th in runs (143), tied for 16th in batting average (.297) among qualified hitters, and tied for 12th in stolen bases (32) since 2019. He’s a great source of stolen bases who won’t kill your team in any category.
More Fantasy Baseball Players Falling Down Draft Boards
- Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves (63.3 to 75.0)
- Zach Plesac, SP, Cleveland Indians (67.5 to 76.2)
- Nelson Cruz, UTIL, Minnesota Twins (85.8 to 95.4)
- Framber Valdez, SP/RP, Houston Astros (97.0 to 114.2)
- Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets (107.8 to 113.0)
- Dustin May, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (151.3 to 171.2)
- Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (200.8 to 215.0)
- Tony Gonsolin, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (202.3 to 238.8)
- Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox (225.3 to 237.2)
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (282.8 to 297.2)
Zach Plesac, Nelson Cruz, and Dominic Smith are three players falling I’m aggressively targeting in drafts. Plesac’s underlying statistics are superb, and he amassed an outstanding 2.28 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 55.1 innings, so color me confused by his availability after pick 75. Cruz is likely suffering from the utility-eligibility-only penalty, and the return to pitchers hitting for themselves in the NL could be impacting Smith’s ADP.
Framber Valdez‘s ADP is going to plummet further since he fractured the ring finger on his throwing hand and will miss substantial time, perhaps the entire season. He’s worth a late-round flyer in leagues with deep benches or multiple IL spots.
Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin entered 2021 with a shot at a rotation spot, but the signing of 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer will push them to the bullpen or minors — where they’d stay stretched out as rotation insurance. I’ll still gladly scoop up Gonsolin as a multi-inning relief option a bit earlier than his ADP with a willingness to cut him if the Dodgers option him to the minors instead of keeping him in the bullpen.
Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez will battle for playing time at designated hitter while occasionally playing outfield and first base, respectively, because of the Toronto Blue Jays’ spending spree, adding George Springer and Marcus Semien in free agency. I’m fading Grichuk and Tellez.
Now that you know these 2021 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers & Fallers,