College Football Week 9 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 9

Last Updated: Oct 29, 2021

Despite their finest efforts to blow an early lead, the Miami Hurricanes pulled an upset last week. It wasn’t easy or pretty or fun to watch, but it was effective. And we were able to cash a (+135) underdog, regardless of how we got there.

As for Army, well, let’s not talk about what happened against Wake Forest.

Scoring 50+ points and losing by double digits wasn’t the game I was expecting. It also wasn’t the outcome I wanted. But such is life when you try to pick underdogs.

This week, I like a lot of chalk in a lot of the marquee games. That said, there are still plenty of “dogs" worth investing in. And there could be a few shockers along the way.

You know the drill. It’s upset time.

Here are my picks for Week 9. Please note that all CFB Week 9 odds and lines are current as of 12 PM EST on Thursday, October 28.

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CFB Week 9 Upset: UTEP (+10.5) at Florida Atlantic

The Miners are 6-1, and they have covered the spread in their last four games. They currently own the nation’s No. 23 ranked scoring defense, and they could face UTSA in a fascinating showdown in Week 10, if, and that’s a big if, they can pull the upset here.

As far as upsets go in this piece, this one is a doozy.

FAU hasn’t exactly been dazzling of late. The Owls have lost games to Florida, Air Force and UAB, which are by no means bad losses. Thus far, however, the best win on their schedule is probably Charlotte. That’s a nice way of saying there’s a lot to prove.

Is an upset here likely? Well, that depends on your definition of the word. But I certainly love the value for a team that has some spunk, and I am willing to take a crack.

Prediction: UTEP 24, Florida Atlantic 20

Under 24 First Half Points (-105) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

This will be ugly. And for UTEP to win outright, I think it has to be.

While I don’t believe we’re looking at another Illinois-Penn State, offense will not be easy to come by.

UTEP Moneyline (+350) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

To date, this is one of our bigger moneyline underdogs. And at three-and-a-half to 1, this is worth a swing.

UTEP’s magical season continues with a win as a double-digit dog according to our CFB gameday odds.

CFB Week 9 Upset: Mississippi State (+1) vs. No. 12 Kentucky

We transition from a big underdog to a little underdog, although one must separate ranking, and point spread in a game like this.

In terms of ranking, Kentucky is the nation’s No. 12 team. Mississippi State, already with three losses, is unranked.

Granted, one of those losses came to Alabama. And one of the wins on the schedule came over Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M on the road. Given recent outcomes, that win feels somewhat significant.

Kentucky is coming off a loss to Georgia, albeit one it fought hard, and covered in. And while coming off a bye shouldn’t hurt; this will be only the third time the Wildcats have been on the road all season.

In these types of games, Mike Leach can pack a punch. While Kentucky has proven itself multiple times, this is a tricky place to play and a sneaky-talented team.

The cowbells will be “a ringin’".

Rara Thomas Mississippi State Bulldogs

Can the Mississippi State Bulldogs upset the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats in Week 9? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Prediction: Mississippi State 20, Kentucky 17

Mississippi State First Half Moneyline (+100) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Speaking of cowbells, they will be a distraction, and home field should play a role. I look for Mississippi State to get off to a fast start against a really good team in our CFB bet of the day.

Mississippi State Moneyline (+105) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Kentucky fans, I’m sorry.

But I love this game a great deal, and I think Mississippi State pulls off a (mild) upset. Leach will then be asked about his favorite Halloween candy, and his answer will take roughly 45 minutes to sort through.

CFB Week 9 Upset: Texas (+3) at No. 16 Baylor

Texas is a tricky team to figure out.

Outside of the performance against Arkansas, which was a dud, this team has delivered flashes in almost every game. And outside of a few really bad stretches against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Longhorns have looked quite dangerous. Still, this is a team coming off back-to-back losses (and a bye).

Baylor, outside of a loss to Oklahoma State, has played some excellent football. Still, the meat of the schedule remains, and it starts right here.

The combination of running back Bijan Robinson and quarterback Casey Thompson is still a very potent combination, one Baylor won’t be able to counter.

I’m not sure the Texas defense will regroup quickly off a bye, although we will see a much better effort. And the offense once again will carry this group.

Prediction: Texas 37, Baylor 31

Over 61.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

This total will fall, it’s just a matter of when and how. While I respect the work Baylor’s defense has done, Texas should be able to find offensive success. And Baylor’s offense will do its part as well.

Texas Moneyline (+130) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

My only concern, and it’s a big one, is that Texas needs to find a way to close out games. The last two times out, that has not been the case.

That changes this week, I hope.

Thanks for reading our CFB Week 9 Upset Predictions! For more CFB betting tips, check out our CFB Week 9 Best Bets.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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