College Football Week 5 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 5

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2021

Last weekend, if you followed the advice of this very column, you were gifted two (yes, two) substantial underdog moneyline winners.

We had Arkansas (+175) against Texas A&M and Baylor (+245) versus Iowa State both pegged and cashed. Our third upset pick, South Carolina, delivered a game effort against Kentucky that ultimately fell just short.

While picks overall finished 3-3, the moneyline dogs certainly did the heavy lifting. And now, as we enter a thrilling Week 5, we will try to do the same all over again. Only this time we’re taking it up another notch in search of a massive outright underdog winner.

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Week 4 CFB upset bet picks.

CFB Week 5 Upset Predictions

Arizona State Sun Devils (+3) vs. No. 20 UCLA Bruins

Don’t let this game fall off of the radar amid a sea of good games. Although it will begin deep into the night on Saturday, Arizona State and UCLA will play a hugely important game in the Pac-12.

Both enter with one loss apiece. The Sun Devils fell to BYU on the road, while UCLA was upset by Fresno State, a result that derailed a convincing start to the Bruins’ year.

The story in this game will, and should, be largely about the quarterbacks.

Jayden Daniels is coming off his best game to date against Colorado, and the same can be said for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA’s starting QB scored four touchdowns in the Bruins’ win over Stanford on Saturday.

The spread signifies the kind of game that is anticipated. And although Arizona State has largely flown under the radar early, that will change with a win.

Prediction: Arizona State 37, UCLA 34

Arizona State Over 26.5 Total Team Points (-110) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

The Sun Devils will score, that much I know.

We’re branching outside the norm for this first bet and instead targeting offense. Thus far, the Sun Devils are averaging more than 32 points per game this season. And although UCLA started strong, the Bruins now rank No. 78 nationally in scoring defense.

Let Daniels cook. That should be the name of the game, both on the ground and in the air. If Herm Edwards does that, ASU should post plenty of points.

Arizona State Moneyline (+145) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s not the boldest of moneyline plays. Those are coming shortly, I promise. Still, with the spread in this game hovering around a field goal, I’ll put the extra juice to good work in this game.

Perhaps we, and by we, I mean “me,” overrated UCLA in the first few weeks of the season. This is a re-calibration of sorts, and Arizona State will take full advantage.

For a more in-depth look at this game, check out Arizona State vs. UCLA Predictions Week 5.

Colorado Buffaloes (+7.5) vs. USC Trojans

USC looks like a broken football team.

In Week 4, the Trojans allowed 45 points and 535 yards to Oregon State at home. While the picture is a bit hazier these days, it feels like one of the more considerable losses in recent memory. Although to be fair, that list has grown substantially.

Colorado is in a position to take full advantage. The Buffaloes are just 1-3, however, two of those losses came to Texas A&M and Arizona State. And although the team is certainly offensively challenged, this might be just the right opponent at just the right time.

Will it be pretty? Goodness no.

Colorado, at least thus far, seems to be playing a certain brand of football that’s not easy on the eyes. But this style nearly beat A&M, and it will do one better here.

Prediction: Colorado 21, USC 20

Colorado-USC Under 24.5 Points in 1st Half (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Let’s keep the theme from the previous thought in motion. For Colorado to win this game, it has to be ugly. While I don’t expect a repeat of the Buff’s 10-7 loss to A&M, the outcome will be more in line with this than what we’ll likely get elsewhere this weekend.

Also, that loss USC just experienced? That might linger some. We could be in line for a sleepy first half (and a cash).

Colorado Moneyline (+240) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

It hasn’t been an easy season for either team, although the firing of Clay Helton has put USC in a situation, even now, where it feels like they’re simply playing out their year. That mindset is certainly something to consider in this spot, which is the kind of road trip USC will be flat on.

Colorado shows the Trojans what a new rock bottom looks like with a win.

USC fans, I am sorry.

Brendon Lewis, QB, Colorado Buffaloes

Having faced tough opponents all season, the Colorado Buffaloes look to get a big win against USC as one of our CFB Week 5 upset picks. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Kansas State Wildcats (+10.5) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners

How do I know this upset can happen? Because I have seen it transpire each of the last two years.

No matter the team, location, or quarterbacks involved, Kansas State has conquered the Sooners in thrilling fashion.

And this year, as Oklahoma’s fans chant for the backup QB to make an appearance and the offense struggles to find its way, the Wildcats are positioned to make it three in a row.

Doing so will require much better effort than the one we saw last week. While Oklahoma had its issues against West Virginia, K-State lost by double digits at Oklahoma State.

Returning home should certainly help. And although he was held in check last week, running back Deuce Vaughn could be poised for liftoff.

Like Clemson, there have been signs that a defeat was coming before it happened. For Oklahoma, that time is now.

Prediction: Kansas State 28, Oklahoma 27

Kansas State +6 First Half (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

So far, it doesn’t seem like there’s a bad time to catch Oklahoma in a game despite the Sooners’ unbeaten mark. But given the environment, the pressure suddenly on QB Spencer Rattler and K-State’s confidence in this series, a solid start seems likely.

I’ll gladly take six points in the first 30 minutes of football.

Kansas State Moneyline (+350) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s a mix of history and confidence on one side coupled with a sense of inevitability and doubt on the other.

No matter how dominant Oklahoma has been at times, Kansas State has been there to answer the call. Last year, the Wildcats won outright as a 28-point underdog. The year before, they won outright despite being a 23.5-point dog.

The formula is there, and Kansas State has the pieces to make it competitive once again. And if all goes according to plan, they will win three in a row.

Thanks for reading our CFB Week 5 Upset Predictions! For more NCAAF betting tips, check out our CFB Week 5 Best Bets.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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