College Football Week 4 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 4

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2021

Thus far, the college football season has been upset-heavy. Given the way some of the nation’s highest-ranked teams have looked, this theme is likely to carry forward in Week 4 and well beyond.

Of the three games we featured in last week’s upset outlook, two delivered outright winners despite being underdogs. BYU and Michigan handled their opponents while Indiana, despite leading Cincinnati 14-0, ultimately could not overcome mistakes and turnovers to make it a perfect three-for-three. Oh, that one hurt the ol’ wallet.

Still, the underdogs were lively. And with a slate ripe with plenty of possibilities, they are likely to push the envelope once again in Week 4.

Here are the upset games (and picks) for Week 4. All lines come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Week 4 CFB upset bet picks.

CFB Week 4 Upset Predictions

No. 16 Arkansas Razorbacks (+4.5) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies

When he was hired at Arkansas, Sam Pittman wasn’t widely considered the person to bring the Hogs back to relevancy. But his impact was immediate, through a mix of wins and close calls in 2020 and a superb start in 2021.

The headliner was, of course, the Razorbacks’ dominating win over Texas. Now, a few weeks later, Pittman can take out the Longhorns’ rival at home at just the perfect time.

While Texas A&M has one of the nation’s best defenses, the offense has struggled. The loss of starting QB Haynes King certainly doesn’t help.

Prediction: Arkansas 17, Texas A&M 14

Arkansas +3 First Half (-110) at Caesars

We’ve seen Texas A&M get out to slow starts this year. A lack of offense will certainly contribute to that, and that will likely be the case once again.

Back to home-field advantage, I expect it to loom large. The jolt Arkansas will receive on the offensive and defensive side could linger deep into the first half and beyond. It will take time for the Aggies to find a rhythm, and the Hogs should take full advantage.

Arkansas Moneyline (+175) at Caesars

I love what I have seen from this team thus far, and given the state of A&M, a program I thought could compete for a national title this year, Arkansas simply plays the right team and the right offense at just the right time.

It’ll be close, and grinding out yards against this defense will not be easy. But Arkansas wins outright and soars up the rankings yet again.

For a more in-depth look at this game, check out Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Predictions Week 4.

Baylor Bears (+6.5) vs. No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones

To say Baylor’s first three opponents have been underwhelming would be an understatement. Let’s address that out of the gate.

The Bears are 3-0, although those three wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. That does not exactly inspire a great deal of confidence. However, the program has made significant strides under head coach Dave Aranda.

Although the competition will take a leap upward, the Bears’ defensive approach should serve them well.

Iowa State bounced back to UNLV as a sizable chalk after losing to Iowa at home, an outcome made possible thanks largely to a run of turnovers. A top 10 team before the season began, the concern entering this game is the offense.

The Cyclones have pieces. Quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall can play, but both have yet to find their rhythm. This could be another unexpected test for a team that was celebrated more across the offseason than just about anyone.

Prediction: Baylor 20, Iowa State 17

Baylor-Iowa State Under 47.5 Points (-110) at Caesars

Both of these defenses can play. Both offenses, despite the talent referenced above, have their concerns. While this total is low, especially when you consider the way the Bears used to score points in bunches, that is not the makeup of this team.

And it won’t be the makeup of this game. I expect both teams to struggle offensively, and I look for Baylor to be in a position to capitalize on that rhythm.

Baylor Moneyline (+245) at Caesars

I love the value of the moneyline in this spot. While I am inclined to bet the Bears plus the points, especially in a game that I expect to be lower in scoring, I will also gladly take two-and-a-half to one.

Iowa State is likely to be a popular and public pick.

I am going in the other direction. That’s the place I often run toward.

Trestan Ebner, RB, Baylor Bears

Facing their first true test this week against Iowa State, the Baylor Bears look to stay undefeated as one of our CFB Week 4 upset picks. (Image: USA TODAY)

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky has flirted with the Top 25. A win over Missouri in Week 2 certainly helped those efforts, although a close call against Chattanooga last week has many, including me, wondering how this 3-0 will factor once the schedule picks up.

This wasn’t supposed to be that moment. Shane Beamer, South Carolina’s new head coach, is rebuilding, and that’s putting it nicely.

But a win over a much-improved East Carolina team is a start. Last week, the Gamecocks were blown out by Georgia. Frankly, that’s not a surprise. The outcome of that game really doesn’t change this game whatsoever in my eyes.

This week, Luke Doty, the team’s starting QB who was injured before the season began, is in line to make an impact. Given the issues at QB, having that stability could loom large.

Prediction: South Carolina 30, Kentucky 28

South Carolina Moneyline (+175) at Caesars

At the most basic level of logic, we saw Kentucky flirt with a bad loss less than a week ago.

South Carolina, while not Florida, is certainly a sizable upgrade from the team the Wildcats just barely beat.

South Carolina-Kentucky Over 24 Points First Half (-110) at Caesars

With Doty back, I could see both offenses finding success. Kentucky has shown flashes on offense as well. And when they haven’t delivered points, they have turned the ball over with both interceptions and fumbles.

While these could help or hurt the over, I expect a very active game. It might not be pristine football, but the scoreboard will be busy.

Want to place more bets on upcoming games? Check out our College Football Bet of the Day!


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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