College Football Week 11 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 11

Last Updated: Nov 11, 2021

If you like betting underdogs to win outright, you’ve wandered into the right internet watering hole.

Each week, our goal is to identify the underdogs ready to pull off an upset, and last week, two out of our three choices delivered as promised.

Purdue clobbered Michigan State at a cool (+130). This was just the appetizer.

I also had TCU (+210) over Baylor, which was juicy and delightful. I’ll take the humble brag a step further. I predicted TCU would beat Baylor 35-33.

Final score? 30-28.

Not too shabby.

Moving to Week 11, we once again have a board begging for action. A slew of ranked teams hit the road in unique spots, which is the kind of recipe I can get behind.

In fact, there are multiple underdogs inside the top 10 poised to fall. Without further ado, here are my upset specials.

Please note that all CFB Week 11 odds and lines are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 11.

CFB Week 11 Upset: Virginia (+5.5) vs No. 9 Notre Dame

I’m not sure why more people aren’t talking about this game.

Sure, it’s a busy weekend. There are plenty of other playoff contenders in high-profile spots. But Notre Dame, still with just one loss, has crawled its way into striking distance of the top four.

Virginia certainly is capable of derailing that. The Cavaliers, led by vastly underrated QB Brennan Armstrong, know how to score. And before falling to BYU on the road, Virginia had won four straight games.

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Since losing to Cincinnati, Notre Dame has also won four straight. And with wins over Wisconsin and Purdue from earlier in the year suddenly looking better and better each week, the playoff résumé has started to blossom.

The issue, however, is that recent competition has been, well, lacking. And a total hovering in the mid-60s tells me this could be a shootout Brian Kelly’s team doesn’t want.

In addition, this will only be Notre Dame’s third true road game of the season. I don’t believe it treats the Irish well.

Prediction: Virginia 33, Notre Dame 30

Over 31 First Half Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Points. It’s been a theme in many of Virginia’s games, and I see no reason why it won’t continue. Notre Dame will also do its part here.

Virginia Moneyline (+180) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Right team, right time, right place. I don’t think the Irish are a bad team, but the lack of competition has simply elevated this group to a prime upset spot and the Cavaliers will deliver.

CFB Week 11 Upset: No. 13 Baylor (+5.5) vs No. 8 Oklahoma

To date, it’s the most meaningful game in the Big 12. And depending on the outcome, it could wind up staying that way, regardless of what happens next.

Oklahoma has had a turbulent (but still successful) season. The Sooners began the year with Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler under center. His struggles paved the way for Caleb Williams to play, and he has delivered.

Still, Oklahoma needed late heroics to get by Kansas. And while Williams unquestionably makes this team more explosive, I don’t believe the change has repaired all issues.

Speaking of which, Baylor showed us last weekend it still has some issues. The loss to TCU, which we were all over, was a setback in an otherwise superb season.

Still, the Bears have been mostly excellent. They are also perfect against the spread at home and have played a more challenging schedule than Oklahoma.

There’s nothing cute about this one. Baylor gets it done at home and derails OU’s playoff hopes.

Prediction: Baylor 31, Oklahoma 27

Baylor (+3) First Half (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

We’ve seen Oklahoma start slow, and I could see a sluggish first half on the road in a hostile environment. Baylor gets it going early.

Baylor Moneyline (+180) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I love the value of nearly 2/1 at home. While it’s reasonable to be concerned by Baylor’s performance last week, college football can be weird like that, plus Oklahoma has had a few clunkers as well.

No. 16 North Carolina State (+2.0) at No. 12 Wake Forest

There might not be a more watchable team in college football than Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons know offense. And against North Carolina, it was once again on display.

Quarterback Sam Hartman, who has posted video game numbers all year, did so again. The issue, however, is that Wake Forest’s defense fell apart late. And for the first time all year, the offense couldn’t pick this group up.

North Carolina State can make it two losses in a row. The Wolfpack have won six of seven games, nearly climbing to the top 15. The offense is certainly capable, although that isn’t necessarily where this team shines.

With the nation’s No. 6 ranked scoring defense, NC State is much more balanced. The offense, powered by QB Devin Leary, will do its part. But the defense is where this team should push Wake Forest in ways it hasn’t been pushed yet.

Prediction: North Carolina State 33, Wake Forest 30

Under 66.5 Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

This feels like a different game than many Wake has played in this year. While there will be plenty of points and touchdowns, the Wolfpack’s defense should be up for this challenge. I don’t love betting Unders, but I will here.

NC State Moneyline (+110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

There’s not a ton of value in the moneyline as a short favorite, but I’m perfectly fine with that. I’ll gladly take (+110) and watch the Wolfpack deliver another victory.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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