College Football Week 10 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 10

Last Updated: Nov 5, 2021

Oh, the underdogs were barkin’. Here in upset land, we nearly pulled off a clean sweep of dogs.

Instead, however, we went 1-3. Mississippi State did its part against Kentucky, Texas blew another late lead against Baylor, and UTEP, at +350, put a strong scare into FAU.

We were that close to a clean sweep, although I refuse to bask in the almost. With Week 10 of the college football season upon us, there is work to be done.

In terms of ranked matchups, this isn’t the most robust slate of games. What this week lacks in that, however, it makes up for in fascinating spreads. If you’re a contrarian player, and I most certainly am, you’re going to love the offerings.

Here they are, my picks for Week 10. Please note that all CFB Week 10 odds and lines are current as of 6 PM EST on Thursday, November 4.

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CFB Week 10 Upset: Purdue (+3) vs. No. 3 Michigan State

By a show of hands, how many of you expected Michigan State to check in at No. 3 in the first College Football Playoff Rankings before the season began?

I better not see a single darn hand.

But that is indeed the case two-and-a-half months into the year. The Spartans are unbeaten and coming off a massive win over rival Michigan. In that game, running back Kenneth Walker III scored five touchdowns and really brought his team back from the dead.

While this was an enormous comeback and a season-altering win, Purdue is a challenging team to square up with the following week.

The Boilermakers, of course, already have a win over a top-five team this year. Purdue beat former No. 2 Iowa in Iowa City, which began the Hawkeyes’ tailspin.

Jeff Brohm’s team has the offense and defense to really push the result, and I believe Purdue pulls off yet another upset.

Prediction: Purdue 27, Michigan State 21

Under 53.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s not just Walker. Wideout David Bell will have something to say about this game. I expect Michigan State and Purdue to trade blows.

Purdue Moneyline (+130) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

The No. 3 team in the country is giving only three points, according to our CFB gameday odds. Some might run toward the trap. Me? I’m running away from it. Purdue causes more CFB chaos.

CFB Week 10 Upset: West Virginia (+3.5) vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State

Morgantown, West Virginia, is one of the most under-appreciated college campuses in the country. It’s also a place that enjoys lighting couches on fire to celebrate a good win.

I say this because I believe couches should be on high alert this week.

The Mountaineers have ripped off consecutive wins against TCU and Iowa State, climbing their back to .500. The offense, led by QB Jarret Doege, is certainly potent when it’s right. And there are signs that it’s finally hitting a rhythm.

Oklahoma State bounced back after losing to the Cyclones last week with a 55-3 win over Kansas, although that doesn’t tell us much. And while I like the Pokes’ defense, playing on the road against an improving team could spell trouble.

Not just for Mike Gundy’s team… but also those couches.

Prediction: West Virginia 23, Oklahoma State 20

Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Leddie Brown, West Virginia Mountaineers

The West Virginia Mountaineers look to take down a top-15 opponent in Oklahoma State in our Week 10 CFB Upsets. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Under 24 First Half Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

It won’t be as bad as Oklahoma-West Virginia’s offensive output, but it certainly won’t be a shootout. Expect the defenses to have a say early on.

West Virginia Moneyline (+145) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

The beginning of a wild end to the Big 12’s season starts now. West Virginia downs a top 15 team and continues a nice late surge.

CFB Week 10 Upset: TCU (+6.5) vs. No. 12 Baylor

It has been an eventful week for the Horned Frogs. Gary Patterson, the man who built TCU into the program it is today, is no longer the head coach. Considering how much he meant to that school, the departure, while not shocking, still feels like a void.

Stepping in is Jerry Kill, the former Minnesota head coach who has plenty of experience. And while it’s hard to know exactly how a team will react after this week, I’m expecting a jolt.

Credit to Baylor, which is having a tremendous season under second-year coach Dave Aranda. The Bears are 7-1, fresh off their win over the Longhorns.But, at No. 12 in the current College Football Playoff rankings, they have over-delivered thus far.

Playing at TCU during an emotional week, however, is not without its challenges. While the Horned Frogs have been inconsistent, this is not a team absent of talent. Once again, we will see just that.

Prediction: TCU 35, Baylor 33

Over 58 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Last week, TCU scored 12 points. This week? I’d be surprised if the Frogs don’t crack 30. The offense comes awake, and Baylor does enough to hit the over, making this our CFB bet of the day.

TCU Moneyline (+210) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Like Purdue, TCU has done this before. It hasn’t done it without Patterson in some time, although I don’t think his absence negatively impacts this outcome. Give me more than 2/1, and let’s ride.

Thanks for reading our CFB Week 10 Upset Predictions! For more CFB betting tips, check out our CFB Week 10 Best Bets.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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