Michigan vs Penn State Predictions NCAAF Week 11 | College Football Pick of the Day

Last Updated: Nov 10, 2021

The No. 9 Michigan Wolverines have squared off with a program from the Big Ten in six straight games, and will continue their tour of the conference in a Week 11 matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The Wolverines are 8-1, but to keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to take care of business versus Penn State. For the 6-3 Nittany Lions, playoffs aren’t a possibility, but they could play spoiler to a conference rival like Michigan by handing them their second loss of the season.

Winning in Beaver Stadium is easier said than done, especially with the Penn State faithful always creating an electric atmosphere. To see who I believe will win the game, along with my favorite bets to place in Saturday’s anticipated matchup between Michigan and Penn State, keep reading below.

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Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction

When looking at both of these teams, Michigan seems to have the upper hand on their conference foes. The Wolverines average 36.2 points per game, while the Nittany Lions have recorded only 27 points per game this season.

Even though Jim Harbaugh continues to search far and wide for a solution at quarterback, Michigan is a team that relies on running the football. The Wolverines are seventh in the nation with 234.1 rushing yards per game, compared to a mere 107.6 rushing yards per game for the Nittany Lions.

Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara hasn’t been asked to do much under center, throwing for 1,666 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Wolverines’ offense goes through their backfield duo of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, who have combined for 1,788 yards from scrimmage and 22 total touchdowns.

On the other hand, Penn State is completely reliant on their quarterback, Sean Clifford, for offense. Clifford’s thrown for 2,371 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions, and is only 172 yards behind Noah Cain for the team lead in rushing yards with 121.

The bad news for Penn State is that Michigan has a defense that is giving up the eighth-fewest passing yards per game. With the Wolverines being able to run the ball effectively regardless of their opponent, and having an elite defense, Harbaugh’s group should be on the winning end in Week 11.

Prediction: Michigan 30, Penn State 20

Michigan vs. Penn State Best Bets

CFB Betting Record: 5-3-0

Best Bet: Michigan -1 (-105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Just looking around the internet this week, there seems to be a decent amount of people in on Penn State. I am not one of those people. I believe Michigan is the superior team, and they are talented enough to walk into Happy Valley and hand the Nittany Lions their fourth loss in the past five weeks.

Michigan isn’t going to come out firing with McNamara. Instead, they’ll pound the ball with Haskins and Corum. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have the personnel to keep Clifford and the Nittany Lions offense in check.

Harbaugh has typically struggled in these decisive Big Ten games, but this time around, his team does what it needs to. I’d take Michigan at -1 for one unit, while I would play up to -2.5 at 0.5 units. The Wolverines are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games, and they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings with the Nittany Lions.

Best Bet: Michigan Moneyline (-115) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

One of the main reasons people are leaning toward taking Penn State is because they are the home team. If this game was taking place in Ann Arbor, I believe Michigan would be heavier favorites than the -1 spread that currently exists.

The Wolverines are the much better team, and with Penn State’s recent three-game skid ending with an uninspiring win over Maryland, I’m confident in Michigan improving to 9-1 in Week 11. Michigan is 8-1 straight up in their last nine games, with their lone loss coming at the hands of No. 8 Michigan State a couple of weeks ago.

Also, the Wolverines are 13-7 versus the Nittany Lions in their last 20 meetings. With a dominant rushing attack, combined with a stingy defense, Michigan can force Clifford into a couple of mistakes that lead to Penn State’s demise at home.


Skyler Carlin

Before joining The Game Day, Skyler has written for various sites for 5-6 years and his work has been (or is) currently featured on Bleacher Report, USA TODAY, and SB Nation. Skyler can be reached at @skyler_carlin on Twitter and he loves to talk about movies, TV shows, and anything sports. He has taken part in multiple well-known fantasy contests like RazzBowl, Scott Fish Bowl, and NFL DFS Wars.

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