After going 4-0 in Week 10, I have four games that I like in Week 11.
With November being the last month of regular season college football, we are running out of good betting opportunities as we get closer to bowl season. In fact, Week 11 has the fewest bets that I have liked all season.
Despite the increasing scarcity of good bets, there is still value to be found. Below, I discuss four games that I am betting on.
All odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, November 9, at 11:00 a.m. ET.
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CFB Week 11 Predictions
No. 4 Oklahoma (9-0) @ No. 18 Baylor (7-2)
Ironically, the Big 12 has only ten teams. However, due to the Big 12 being so small, they are the only conference where every team plays each other once during the regular season.
Oklahoma is undefeated in conference play, and Baylor is in third place with a 4-2 conference record. In the Big 12, the second-place team plays the first-place team in the Conference Championship. If the Bears lose, chances are they won’t play in the conference game.
As a result of Baylor’s strong record and playing at home, they are only six-point underdogs against the Sooners. However, Oklahoma not only expects to win the conference, but they are also trying to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Despite being undefeated after nine games, OU is only 4-5 against the spread. They had underwhelming wins of a touchdown or less against Tulane, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Texas at the beginning of the season.
The turning point for the Sooners this season was the Texas game. At one point against UT, OU was down by 18 points. Then, Oklahoma benched struggling quarterback Spencer Rattler and replaced him with freshman Caleb Williams. As a result of Williams’ strong performance, he became the starting Sooners quarterback.
Currently, Williams has 14 passing touchdowns, only one interception, and a 71.6 percent completion percentage. Most impressively, Williams has a passing efficiency of 203.74, which is the second-best in the FBS behind Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina.
Fortunately for Williams, Baylor’s defense has had a tough time against the pass. In last week’s TCU loss, TCU accumulated 468 passing yards and completed 71.4 percent of their passes. The Bears are allowing 252.5 passing yards per game for the season, which is the 31st most in the FBS.
Baylor has exceeded expectations this season, but they are clearly outmatched by Williams and Oklahoma this Saturday.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Prediction: Oklahoma 40, Baylor 21
Best Bet: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -6.5)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you have been betting on Oklahoma’s spreads this season, chances are that you are a little skittish about backing them again. However, now that their offense has become more explosive under Caleb Williams, they should win by at least a touchdown in what is expected to be a high-scoring game.
The Sooners have every incentive to run up the score against Baylor. As an undefeated team currently out of the CFP Top 4, Oklahoma will look to make a statement against a Top 25 team so they can qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Western Kentucky (5-4) @ Rice (3-6)
Western Kentucky has undergone a complete makeover this season. Last year, the Hilltoppers went 5-6 and averaged only 19.5 points per game, which was the 14th lowest in the FBS. This season, WKU has a 5-4 record and averages 39.1 points per game, the 6th most in the FBS and the most in Conference USA.
Rice is a sharp contrast to Western Kentucky, as they have a 3-6 record, with their only wins coming against Texas Southern, Southern Miss, and a surprise upset against UAB. The Owls are averaging only 15.8 points per game, the second-worst in Conference USA and the 8th worst in the FBS.
Currently, the Hilltoppers have an average scoring margin of +8.6, while the Owls have an average scoring margin of -20.4, which is the 10th worst in the FBS. That is why it should be no surprise that Western Kentucky is favored by almost three touchdowns.
Offensively, WKU’s game plan is clear in that they are going to air it out. Western Kentucky passes on 68.24 percent of plays, which is the second-most in the FBS.
Rice is likely to struggle against Western Kentucky, as they allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.8 percent of their passes. WKU quarterback Bailey Zappe is completing 69.8 percent of his passes and has 37 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions.
Even on the road with such a lopsided matchup, Western Kentucky should easily win.
Western Kentucky vs. Rice Prediction: Western Kentucky 52, Rice 24
Best Bet: Western Kentucky -18.5 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -21)
Wager: 1.5 Units
18.5 points is a lot of points to lay on a favorite in college football, but based on the lopsided matchup, the Hilltoppers should cover. For a team to cover such a spread, you need not only a lopsided matchup but typically an explosive offense.
Luckily for WKU bettors, WKU loves to devour their opponents. Even though the Hilltoppers are 18.5-point favorites right now, I imagine that the line should move throughout the week. Despite this, I would bet them up to 21 points.
Purdue (6-3) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (8-1)
With few exceptions, Ohio State will always be a huge favorite in their regular season games. They have won four consecutive Big Ten conference championships and made it to the National Championship game last year.
If the Big Ten were the stock market, the Buckeyes would be a blue-chip stock.
Purdue, on the other hand, has only finished with one winning season since 2012. Additionally, in Big Ten conference play, the Boilermakers have finished with a winning record only once since 2007. However, this season, Purdue has a 6-3 record, including impressive wins against Iowa and Michigan State.
While Purdue may seem like an annoying fly against Ohio State, they are more like an annoying wild boar based on their recent play. They are allowing only 18.4 points per game and have an average scoring margin of +6.3.
Recently, the Buckeyes have struggled to cover as heavy favorites. Last week against Nebraska, they won by only nine points, despite being favored by 14. The previous week against Penn State, they were favored by 18.5 points yet were only up by less than a touchdown for most of the game.
Ohio State, certainly based on talent alone, should make the College Football Playoff this year, but Purdue has a strong team. That is why I believe that Ohio State is unlikely to win by three touchdowns or more.
Purdue vs. Ohio State Prediction: Ohio State 24, Purdue 17
Best Bet: Purdue +20 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to +17)
Wager: 1.5 Units
When a team is a 20-point underdog, they are usually not that good, and the other team is strong. For Saturday’s game, both Purdue and Ohio State are strong teams.
The Boilermakers have a strong defense, and they have impressive wins against both Iowa and Michigan State. While Ohio State could win in a blowout, I believe that the game will be very close, and that is why I like Purdue to cover.
Air Force (6-3) @ Colorado State (3-6)
Last week, I bet on Colorado State and, like Colorado State, I took a whooping.
The Rams were small favorites against a struggling Wyoming team and lost 31-17. While underdogs frequently win in College Football, what was most shocking about that game was how many points Wyoming laid onto Colorado State’s defense.
Outside of impressive performances against Northern Illinois and Ball State, Wyoming had only scored between 0 and 24 points in each game this year leading up to last week’s game. In the Wyoming game, Colorado State allowed 385 rushing yards off of 57 carries for an average of 6.75 yards per carry.
This was shocking as CSU allows only 3.2 rushing yards per carry, which is the 15th best in the country.
What makes Saturday night’s Mountain West Conference matchup compelling is that all Air Force does is run the ball. As a service academy, Air Force runs a run-based triple-option offense, which runs on 84.5 percent of their possessions. Only Army runs on a higher percentage of their offensive plays.
The question for Saturday night’s game is if Colorado State’s rushing defense can stop Air Force?
Air Force vs. Colorado State Prediction: Air Force 30, Colorado State 17
Best Bet: Air Force -3 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -4)
Wager: 1 Unit
Air Force has a 6-3 record while Colorado State has a 3-6 record. Even though the Rams are at home and have had a decent running defense earlier this season, the Falcons should win.
At only 3 points, Air Force should cover. Based on Wyoming exposing Colorado State’s run defense, I think Air Force will be able to jump to an early lead and then run down the clock with their triple-option offense.
Even though AF is currently favored by only 3 points, I expect this number to move, and I would only bet them up to 4 points.