1/6/21 NBA DFS Picks on Monkey Knife Fight

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

1/6/21 NBA DFS Picks on Monkey Knife Fight: The Game Day breaks down two MKF contests daily that we feel have profit potential for Jan. 6 NBA DFS plays. With Wednesday night offering plenty of big names, here’s a closer look at two opportunities involving four of the most offensively explosive players on the slate.

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1/6/21 NBA DFS Picks on Monkey Knife Fight


Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers


MKF Contest: More or Less

Bradley Beal: Less than 28.5 Points

This is a number that’s well within Beal’s range of outcomes, considering he’s averaging 30.6 points per contest and has scored at least 29 points in five of his first seven games. That includes a 31-point haul against the 76ers back on Opening Night, but Philly has tightened up its defense overall since that game, including against shooting guards.

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The Sixers are ranked in the top half of the league in points per game surrendered to twos (24.6), and they’re also allowing the eighth-lowest shooting percentage (41.8) to the position. Additionally, the Sixers give up the second-lowest shooting percentage (37.5 percent) to backcourts overall.

Moreover, consider Beal has struggled from behind the arc since the season began and currently sports a career-low 28.9 percent success rate from distance. That lack of efficiency naturally slows down the rate at which he piles up points. Given Philadelphia is also allowing the second-fewest points per game (101.7), I like the prospect of Beal falling at least narrowly short of this statistical benchmark.

Joel Embiid: Less than 27.5 Points

The Wizards bring a big bump in pace for the 76ers, considering they’re averaging the third-most possessions per game (109.3), while Philly clocks in ranked No. 17 in that category with 104.8 possessions per contest. That will give Embiid some extra opportunities with the ball in his hands, but I still see the big man falling somewhat short of this total.

The Wizards’ defense is bad overall but has given up 24.4 points per game to centers, a number notably below Embiid’s benchmark for this contest. Embiid is also less offensively involved thus far this season than at any time other than his rookie 2016-17 campaign – he’s averaging 14.3 shot attempts per game, a significant tumble from the career-high 18.7 he put up two seasons ago, as well as from the 15.7 he averaged last season.

Embiid has put up just 10 or 11 attempts in each of his last three contests, falling well below the 28-point mark in each. While I expect Embiid to have a strong all-around line by night’s end, the Washington defense’s all-around vulnerability will allow the wealth to be spread enough among other high-usage players such as Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons to leave him short of the 27.5.


Star Shootout (All Games)


MKF Contest: More or Less

Stephen Curry Less than 30.5 points

The fact Curry just went off for 62 points two games ago certainly isn’t lost on anyone, and it provides a clear reminder of the upside the future Hall of Famer still carries. He’s also unquestionably the linchpin of a team that still doesn’t have much depth, but the challenge gets stiff for him and his teammates Wednesday.

Although they had a bit of an off night defensively against San Antonio on Tuesday without Paul George (ankle) in the lineup, the Clippers are still one of the best defensive teams in the league. Los Angeles went into that contest giving up a minuscule 29.8 percent success rate from three-point range to point guards, along with 23.1 points per contest on a pedestrian 42.6 overall field-goal percentage. Curry will undoubtedly still generate a solid scoring haul, but this is one game where the matchup could lead to him cooling off somewhat.

James Harden: More than 29.5 points

The Rockets face the Pacers, the team that just so happens to be allowing NBA-high 41.8 percent shooting from three-point range. Two-guards have particularly beneficiaries of that weakness, as they’ve posted a 44.3 percent success rate from behind the arc against Indiana on their way to an average of 25.7 points per contest.

Harden is putting up 33.0 points per game with excellent efficiency. He’s shooting 47.4 percent overall, including a career-high 40.9 percent from three-point range. He was over 30 points in three of his first four games as well, and last season, he hit or exceeded the 30-point mark in a whopping 44 of 68 regular-season games. Given Indy’s issues limiting the long-distance shot and Harden’s form thus far, I like the chances of the 29.5 being exceeded.

Get ready for 2021 NBA fantasy basketball

After you finish examining our 1/6/21 NBA DFS Picks on Monkey Knife Fight and pick the best Jan. 6 NBA DFS plays, read our full NBA coverage of tips on fantasy basketball and daily fantasy basketball.

Author

Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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