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CFB Week 9 Predictions & Best Bets

Posted: Oct 28, 2022Last updated: Oct 28, 2022

With the last weekend in October, we still have a lot of great college football games to be played in Week 9. The National Championship picture is wide open even with only Georgia and Ohio State as clear favorites.

There are many great college football games this weekend, and some of them have great betting opportunities.

Below, read up on my best college football bets.

All college football odds are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Oct. 24, 2022, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.

Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 49-63-3, -11.4% Return on Investment, +3.5% Closing Line Value

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Miami (Ohio) vs Akron

Akron +8.5 (-108) at BetRivers

Akron (+285) Moneyline at FanDuel

WAGER: .75 Units Each

I have been obsessed with betting on Akron this season. They may have a 1-7 record with their only win coming against an FCS school, but they are not as bad as they look.

I am not a fan of judging a team based on their against-the-spread record, but the Zips are 4-4 against the spread. Recently, they have played well against slightly stronger conference opponents.

Last week, they lost Kent State by only six points and were within striking distance the whole game. Similarly, they lost to Central Michigan by only seven points, and Bowling Green by only three points. In all three games, they were large underdogs.

At home, with barely any fans, they should cover against Miami (Ohio) and potentially even win. Miami has their starting quarterback Brett Gabbert back, but they are a low-scoring decent defensive team.

Akron could win if they can prevent Miami (Ohio) from building a large lead and I would take their spread if they are a touchdown underdog or greater.

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Arkansas vs Auburn

Arkansas -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

Arkansas is a weird team this season. They beat Cincinnati but lost to Texas A&M in a game they should have won, were blown out by Alabama in a game where they were competitive most of the time, and then lost to a weaker Mississippi State team.

The reason why I am bullish on the Razorbacks, in general, is that they have a great quarterback/running back tandem with KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders.

Jefferson, who missed a couple of games, has a strong arm and is a threat on the ground. Sanders is a lock to run for at least 100 yards and average around five yards a carry. The two of them together make defenses tired, and that is why the Hogs should win by about a touchdown.

Auburn has had trouble against teams like Arkansas. In their last game against Ole Miss, the Tigers allowed three players to run for over 100 yards, including the Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart. Altogether, Auburn allowed 448 rushing yards in that game.

Against Georgia, Auburn allowed 292 rushing yards off only 39 carries.

Arkansas should easily win against Auburn, and I would bet them up to -6.5.

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Ohio State vs Penn State

Ohio State -15.5 (-107) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1 Unit

Ohio State is a CFB National Championship odds favorite for a good reason because they are the best team in the Big Ten, which is one of the best college football conferences. Even as two-plus touchdown favorites on the road against Penn State, they should roll their opponent.

Last week, against an Iowa defense that is one of the best in the country, C.J. Stroud and Ohio State scored 54 points. In six of their seven games this season, OSU has scored at least 45 points. This includes a 49-20 win against Michigan State, and a 52-21 win against Wisconsin.

Penn State is not chopped liver, either, but I don’t think they can hang with the Buckeyes. They lost 41-17 against Michigan as only plus-seven underdogs. Their only notable win came last week against Minnesota.

It’s a lot of points, but Ohio State should win by at least three touchdowns this weekend. As a result, I like their spread if it stays below -17.

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Northwestern vs Iowa

Northwestern +11 (-105) at Betway Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Ludacris once asked a pivotal question that applies to college football, “how low can you go?" The point total for the Northwestern/Iowa game is set at only 35.5 points at FanDuel as of Monday, Oct. 24.

Without knowing anything about college football, it is hard to see a low-scoring game where a team wins by more than 11 points. Low-scoring games are usually decided by only one possession, and the Hawkeyes aren’t known for overpowering their opponents offensively.

In two of their games this season, Iowa didn’t score a touchdown yet either won or lost by less than a touchdown. Against Iowa State, they only lost 10-7. Even against a Nevada team that couldn’t stop a nosebleed, they only won 27-0.

Northwestern has been competitive this season and they almost won outright last weekend as +14.5 underdogs against Maryland. We should see a close low-scoring game which is why I like the Wildcats to cover as +10 underdogs or better.

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Kentucky vs Tennessee

Kentucky +12.5 (-107) at PointsBet

Under 63.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers

WAGER: 1 Unit Each

The SEC East has three strong teams in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia. The Bulldogs are the favorite to win the division and the conference, but Kentucky and Tennessee are good, as well.

Both teams face off in a Saturday night brawl, and the oddsmakers believe that Tennessee should win by about two touchdowns. The Vols are certainly the better team at home, but Kentucky with its strong defense should keep it close.

That’s why I like the Wildcats to cover and for the point total to go Under 63.5 points.

Looking at Kentucky’s resume, they beat Mississippi State, lost to Ole Miss by only three points on the road, and beat Florida on the road. In all of their games, even their losses against Ole Miss and South Carolina, Kentucky’s defense has dominated their opponents.

Tennessee’s offensive identity is in airing out the football with quarterback Hendon Hooker. Unfortunately for the Vols, Kentucky has a strong passing defense. Tennessee should win, but Kentucky should cover and keep the point total Under 63.5 points on Saturday night.

How To Bet College Football Week 9

Back underdogs in low-scoring games

‘Dogs will cover the spreads in a few spots. In games with projected low scoring, there is a smaller distribution of scores, and each point you get on the spread is worth more as a bettor than in high-scoring games.

CFB Playoff chasers could produce big margins of victory

As we get closer to the end of the regular season, National Championship contenders may look to run up the score in seemingly meaningless games to boost their national profile and playoff picture.

For example, Ohio State’s -15.5 spread may undersell a possible 30-to-40-point margin of victory.

Hammer the spreads of some of these heavy favorites.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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