It feels like yesterday that college football started, but we are already in Week 7. Teams have already played a few conference games, so we have a better idea about how they play against similar competition.
The additional data we have means that there are fewer good bets to be found. Despite this, there is still gold to be mined.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Oct. 3, 2022, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 44-50-3, -4.2% Return on Investment, +3.9% Closing Line Value
Navy vs SMU Best Bets
Navy +13.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Navy Moneyline (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Navy football has come a long way since when Roger Staubach was there. While they aren’t a National Championship contender, they are progressively getting better as more games are played.
Navy opened the season by losing 14-7 to Delaware, an FCS team. In Week 2, they lost to Memphis 37-13 in their first conference game. Then, the Midshipmen turned the ship around.
They beat East Carolina outright as 16.5-point underdogs, they covered as 14-point underdogs against a tough Air Force team when they only lost 13-10. The cherry on top, was last week against Tulsa when they won 53-21 as 4.5-point underdogs.
SMU is always a threat in the AAC, but I don’t understand how they can be a nearly two-touchdown favorite against Navy.
The key for Navy will be if they can establish the run as they have a rushing play percentage of 80.9%, the second-highest mark in the FBS. SMU allows 5.1 yards a carry which is the 16th worst in the country.
Navy might score another big upset this weekend, but at the very least they should cover. I would bet them up to a +10 spread and a +280 moneyline Friday night.
Kansas vs Oklahoma Best Bets
Kansas +8 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Kansas (+255) Moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 Units Each
Last week, I was all about Kansas in this column, and they lost a game that they should have won. The silver lining is that they pushed on their +7 spread against TCU.
Now, the Jayhawks have the fortune of playing Oklahoma this week.
The Sooners are a sinking ship this season. They have yet to win a single conference game after losing 41-34 against Kansas State, 55-24 against TCU, and last week’s debacle against Texas where they lost 49-0.
For whatever reason, Oklahoma is looking like Kansas from a past life, while Kansas is looking like the Oklahoma program that we used to know.
Looking at the TCU/Kansas box score from this weekend, it is easy to see why Kansas should have won. KU went 1-3 on fourth-down conversion attempts and fumbled on the TCU 3-yard line. If the Jayhawks didn’t fumble on that possession and/or if they did better on fourth downs, they would have won that game, or at least sent it to overtime.
Kansas has impressive upset victories this year against Duke, Houston, West Virginia, and Iowa State. Against Oklahoma, Kansas will either win or give them a scare.
If they are a touchdown or more underdog, I recommend spread and moneyline bets on the Jayhawks.
Miami (Ohio) vs Bowling Green Best Bet
Miami (Ohio) -6.5 (-107) at PointsBet
WAGER: 1.5 Units
My aunt’s friend is a professor at Miami (Ohio). When I met her at my cousin’s wedding, she was shocked that I knew all about their football team.
That is how obscure my MACtion fandom is.
Even on the road, the Redhawks should not be 6.5-point favorites against arguably the worst MAC team in Bowling Green. BGSU paid Eastern Kentucky to come to Bowling Green, and BGSU found a way to lose 59-57 (not a basketball score).
Just like how I have a one-track mind that is into betting on obscure football teams, Bowling Green has a one-track offense. Fitting to their nickname as the Falcons, Bowling Green has a passing play percentage of 57.1%. That is the 23rd highest in the country.
Therefore, Miami (Ohio) should win, because their passing defense has been strong.
Last week against Kent State, who has the most explosive offense in the MAC, the RedHawks limited them to 23 completions on 40 passing attempts. They also had similarly strong defensive performances against Northwestern and Buffalo.
Miami (Ohio) has issues at quarterback, but recently they have gotten their run game going. Against a BGSU defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, the 11th worst in the FBS, Miami (Ohio) should not only win but cover the spread, as well.
NC State vs Syracuse Best Bet
NC State (+145) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
NC State vs Syracuse is a tricky game to handicap. To bet on this game, you must figure out who is playing at QB for the Wolfpack.
Starting quarterback Devin Leary was injured last week against Florida State. The local press is reporting that his injuries don’t require surgery, and they are expecting that backup Jack Chambers will be starting in his place.
Regardless of who is playing quarterback, NC State is the better team.
Leary might play this weekend, but even with Chambers, they are probably fine. Chambers only attempted one pass last weekend, but he generated yards on the ground. The Wolfpack have a strong passing defense which should contain Syracuse.
The Orange have played a weak schedule and have a few lucky wins. Based on their record and playing at home, their spread is inflated against NC State. At +145, the moneyline is worth a bet, and I would play it up to +125.
James Madison vs Georgia Southern Best Bet
Over 63.5 Points (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
James Madison the President won the 1808 Presidential Election with 64.8% of the vote. James Madison the football team shouldn’t beat Georgia Southern as bad as the President beat the Federalists in 1808, but it should still be a rout.
I am tempted to back JMU as a 10-plus point favorite, but the Over is a better play. The Dukes should be ahead all game, and that will cause an aggressive Georgia Southern offense to play even more aggressively than usual.
The Eagles average 32.6 points per game, which is the 32nd best in the country. They also have a passing play percentage of 60%, which is the 12th highest nationally.
JMU allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 57% of their passes. If this continues Saturday afternoon, both teams should combine for at least 67 points, which is why I would bet the Over up to 65 points.
How To Bet College Football Week 7
Mostly conference games
Now that September is over, most of the remaining regular season games are going to be conference matchups. This means that for those games, you must properly analyze what teams playing non-conference games will do against opponents close to their skill level.
The difference between bad and awful
The key to handicapping many games this weekend is figuring out the difference between bad and awful. Many weak teams are playing each other this weekend, and the trick to picking winners in those games is figuring out the degree to which certain teams are bad.
Some teams are bad, but decent against other poor-performing teams, and other teams just perform poorly against everyone.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
