Typical Iowa football. It has a great defense, not much offense, and little in the passing game. And now starting quarterback Cade McNamara is out with a season-ending knee injury.
Fading the punchless Hawkeyes with Wisconsin is my top play this week.
Week 6 brought a disappointing 3-4 record, losing my two-unit play on Colorado against Arizona State and splitting my one-unit plays – winning with Michigan and losing with the Under in Kent State-Ohio.
Here’s to a winning Week 7.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 19-21-1 (-9 units)
CFB odds used in these betting tips are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 10, at 10:30 p.m. ET
CFB Week 7 Best Bets
Iowa @ Wisconsin
BEST BET: Wisconsin -10 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Deacon Hill. No, that’s not the name of the new pastor, nor the name of a housing sub-division. Deacon Hill is Iowa’s starting quarterback with McNamara out.
Hill is terrible. So is Iowa’s offense, which ranks second-to-last in the nation in total yards at 249.2 yards per game. The Hawkeyes average fewer than 130 yards passing, which is third-worst in the country.
The Badgers are familiar with Hill. He was a Wisconsin reserve for two seasons before transferring to Iowa. Hill made his first college start against Purdue last week. He was 6-for-21 passing for 110 yards.
Iowa has no come-from-behind capabilities. The Badgers average 31.4 points behind stud running back Braelon Allen and Tanner Mordecai, one of Wisconsin’s better quarterbacks in recent years. The Badgers surrender 18.4 points per game, which ranks 26th in the nation.
Wisconsin has defeated Iowa the past three times it has hosted the Hawkeyes, with the latest being a 27-7 win two seasons ago.
Arkansas @ Alabama
BEST BET: Over 46.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
There is too much skill-position talent here for this low of a total. Each team averages more than 31 points a game.
Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a big-time quarterback. He’s completed better than 67 percent of his throws.
But so has Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, who is coming off a strong performance with three touchdown passes and a career-high 321 passing yards against Texas A&M last Saturday – and Texas A&M has a far better defense than Arkansas..
It’s not just the quarterbacks. The Razorbacks’ Raheim Sanders was rated by many as one of the top-five running backs in the nation. Sanders is rounding into shape after dealing with injuries for much of September.
Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton had a monster game against Texas A&M with nine receptions for 197 yards and two touchdowns.
The teams have met each of the last seven seasons, and there have been at least 50 points scored each time.
The Crimson Tide defeated Arkansas, 49-26, last year. The teams also had a high-scoring matchup two seasons ago with Alabama winning, 42-35.
Alabama is averaging a staggering 49.5 points against the Razorbacks during the past six meetings.
Wyoming @ Air Force
BEST BET: Under 42.5 (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Talk about low-scoring games. The last three times these teams have met the average combined total was 31.6 points.
There weren’t more than 38 points scored in any of those games, which were played last year, 2021 and 2019.
Air Force’s veteran defense allows just 12.2 points a game, while ranking No. 2 in total defense and fourth in run defense. The Falcons have held three of their five opponents to 10 points or fewer.
But they are the slowest tempo team in the country. They run on nearly 95 percent of their offensive plays, whereas Wyoming averages 35.5 run attempts per game.
The Cowboys are 114th in total yards and 125th in passing. So the clock is going to keep moving.
Wyoming’s defense is better than the statistics. The Cowboys’ defensive numbers are skewed, having had to play Big 12 Conference foes Texas Tech and Texas.
They are adept at defending Air Force’s triple option offense., and they’ve held Air Force to an average of 19 points the past two seasons.
CFB Week 7 Betting Prediction Leans
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
BET LEAN: Georgia -31.5 (-110)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Top-ranked Georgia is hitting its stride. The Bulldogs just buried Kentucky, 51-13, last week.
Now Georgia gets Vanderbilt, which has failed to cover a game this season – going 0-7 against the spread.
The Commodores also played Kentucky this season and lost to the Wildcats by 17 points at home.
Vanderbilt has lost five consecutive games, including an embarrassing defeat to UNLV. The Commodores aren’t going to have much of a home field advantage, if any, against Georgia.
The Bulldogs buried Vanderbilt, 55-0, at home last season and rolled past the Commodores, 62-0, on the road in 2021. Georgia is idle next week, so a letup shouldn’t be in store.
Indiana @ Michigan
BET LEAN: Indiana +33.5 (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan can’t be blamed for taking Indiana lightly after the Hooisers were blown out by Maryland, 44-17, in their last game.
The Wolverines are coming off consecutive blowout road victories against Nebraska, 45-7, and Minnesota, 52-10.
But before losing to Maryland, Indiana had held its four other opponents to an average of 19.5 points in going 2-2.
The defeats were to third-ranked Ohio State, 23-3, and to 14th-ranked Louisville, 21-14. So the Hooisers have shown they can step up defensively against Top 25 competition.
They have also had extra prep time coming off a bye, and Michigan has long-time in-state rival Michigan State on deck.
Texas A&M @ Tennessee
BET LEAN: Tennessee -3.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The spot and matchup set up well for Tennessee. The Volunteers were idle last week, while Texas A&M had a tough, physical battle with Alabama last Saturday, losing 26-20.
The Aggies were beat through the air by Jalen Milroe, who threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns for the Crimson Tide.
Texas A&M’s defense ranks 117th in yards per completion. Now the Aggies face a better throwing quarterback in Joe Milton, who has a cannon for an arm.
Max Johnson is a solid replacement for injured Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman, but he’s been sacked eight times compared to Weigman being dropped just three times despite having thrown 35 more passes than Johnson.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
BET LEAN: Pittsburgh +8 (-110)
Unibet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The 1-4 Pittsburgh Panthers are in circle-the-wagons mode. They are coming off a bye, during which Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi made several starting lineup changes.
The big one being replacing ineffective Phil Jurkovec at quarterback with Christian Veilleux. That could provide the spark the Panthers need to turn around their season.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Cardinals, who upset Notre Dame last week to move into 14th place in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 ranking. Louisville has a bigger game up next hosting Duke.
So the spot and spark are lit here for the Panthers.
How To Bet College Football Week 7
Conference games
Most of the remaining regular season games are going to be conference matchups. This means that for those games, you must properly analyze how teams playing non-conference games will do against opponents close to their skill level.
The difference between bad and awful
The key to handicapping many games this weekend is figuring out the difference between bad and awful. Many weak teams are playing each other this weekend, and the trick to picking winners in those games is figuring out the degree to which certain teams are bad.
Some teams are bad, but decent against other poor-performing teams, and other teams just perform poorly against everyone.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
