Week 6 of the college football season is here. Teams are still getting adjusted to their conference schedules, which means that certain teams in lopsided non-conference matchups from September could be good bets in October.
Unfortunately, as we get more data on teams, there are fewer good bets to be found. Despite this, I have used my betting magic to turn coal into diamonds with my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of Monday, Oct. 3, at 12 p.m. ET at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 40-42-2, -1.1% Return on Investment, +3.9% Closing Line Value
TCU vs Kansas Best Bets
Kansas +7 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Kansas Moneyline (+202) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
This Kansas football team is hardly recognizable. Last year, the Jayhawks were 2-10 with their only wins coming against South Dakota and Texas.
This year, Kansas is 5-0 with wins coming against competitive West Virginia, Iowa State, and Houston teams. How did the Jayhawks suddenly start winning?
Are they worth a National Championship bet?
TCU should beat Kansas, but setting them as seven-point road favorites even after their win against Oklahoma is not appropriate. I would make them a three- or four-point favorite particularly because Kansas matches up well against their run-heavy offense.
The Jayhawks’ run defense is allowing only 3.5 yards a carry, which is impressive when you look at the strong running offenses that they had to contain. At +7, the Kansas spread is a steal, and I would bet it up to +6.
Additionally, the moneyline is worth a smaller bet, and I would play it up to +150.
Buffalo vs Bowling Green Best Bet
Buffalo -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: .75 Units
When I first started writing this article, Buffalo was a two-point underdog against Bowling Green, and it was a 1.5-unit play. Now that other smart people agreed with me, they are now a 1.5-point favorite. Despite this, they are worth a bet.
Bowling Green is arguably one of the worst teams in college football. Last week, as 9.5-point favorites against Akron, they only won 31-28 after Akron made a late comeback attempt.
How the Buffalo Bulls could be less than a three-point favorite against them this week is bull.
Not only did Bowling Green nearly lose to Akron, but they also lost to Eastern Kentucky, which is an FCS team. If they can’t beat an FCS opponent and they barely can beat the worst team in their conference, how are they supposed to beat a decent conference opponent like Buffalo?
The Bulls are undefeated in conference play after victories against Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio. Bowling Green has a pass-heavy offense, which should have trouble against a Buffalo defense that has defended well against the pass.
I like Buffalo this weekend, and I would take their spread as long as they are favored by less than three points.
Akron vs Ohio Best Bets
Akron +11.5 (-109) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Akron Moneyline (+330) at BetRivers
WAGER: 0.75 Units Each
Last week at home, as 9.5-point underdogs, Akron nearly beat Bowling Green. This is noteworthy as these are two of the worst teams in college football, and Akron almost won.
Since Ohio’s head coach Frank Solich retired before the 2021 season, Ohio’s program has noticeably regressed. How they are 11.5-point home favorites even against Akron is surprising to me.
Ohio might have nearly beaten Kent State in overtime last weekend, but they barely beat Fordham the week before. The Bobcats’ weakness as a team is their passing defense.
Luckily for Akron, dual-threat quarterback D.J. Irons is starting to hit his stride. Not only has Irons started playing more aggressively, but he is also a threat on the road.
If Irons can take advantage of a vulnerable Ohio defense, then Akron can win outright as an 11-point underdog. If Akron is an underdog of +8.5 or better, they are worth a spread and a moneyline bet this weekend.
Duke vs Georgia Tech Best Bet
Duke -3 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 1 Unit
How is any team, let alone Duke, only a three-point favorite against Georgia Tech? Outside of last week’s upset against Pitt, Georgia Tech’s only win this season was against Western Carolina.
Duke has been consistently undervalued all season. The Blue Devils beat Northwestern outright on the road as a 10-point underdog, they nearly beat Kansas on the road, and they beat Virginia last week, 38-17, despite barely being favored.
Bettors who want to back Duke this weekend are in a good spot as Georgia Tech has struggled against the run. The Yellow Jackets have barely stung their opponents, as they are allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
Their weak rushing defense explains why opposing teams have a rushing play percentage of 59.7%, which is the 11th-highest in the country.
Duke should give Georgia Tech a tough time this weekend, as they are averaging 5.1 yards per carry, which is No. 21 in the country. If they can establish the run early, the game shouldn’t be close, and Duke should win by at least a touchdown.
Getting them at three points is a bargain, and I would back their spread up to -6.5. There might even be good props on this game, depending on what sportsbooks put out this weekend.
Western Kentucky vs University of Texas at San Antonio Best Bet
UTSA -5 (-111) at BetRivers
WAGER: 1.5 Units
UTSA is somehow a favorite at home by less than a touchdown in a Conference game.
Last year, the Road Runners were undefeated until close to the end of the season. This season, UTSA has played a tough non-conference slate, and people have forgotten about how good they are against their conference foes.
So far, UTSA’s weakness has been against the run. Fortunately, Western Kentucky is one of the most pass-heavy teams in the country. In fact, the Hilltoppers have a passing play percentage of 60.7%, which is the ninth-highest in the country.
Last week against Middle Tennessee, UTSA limited the opposing quarterback to only 368 passing yards on 56 pass attempts. If the Roadrunners’ defense has a similar performance against WKU, then they should cover the spread this weekend if it stays below a touchdown.
How To Bet College Football Week 6
Mostly conference games
Now that September is over, most of the remaining regular season games are going to be conference matchups. This means that for those games, you must properly analyze what teams playing non-conference games will do against opponents close to their skill level.
The difference between bad and awful
The key to handicapping many games this weekend is figuring out the difference between bad and awful. Many weak teams are playing each other this weekend, and the trick to picking winners in those games is figuring out the degree to which certain teams are bad.
Some teams are bad, but decent against other poor-performing teams, and other teams just perform poorly against everyone.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
