Unlike the past couple of college football seasons, this year is shaping up to be more open, with at least half-a-dozen teams having a chance to win the National Championship.
I had my best week of the season last Saturday, going 5-2. I am 11-9-1 on my Best Bets and Leans. I cashed my two-unit play on Wyoming and went 1-1 on my two one-unit plays.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 11-9-1 (-2.7 units)
The college football odds used in these betting tips are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 19, at 11:00 p.m. ET
CFB Week 4 Best Bets
UNLV @ UTEP
BEST BET: UTEP +2.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Beating an SEC school is a big deal for UNLV, even if it is Vanderbilt. The Rebels defeated the Commodores, 40-37, at home last week, making a field goal with five seconds left.
That victory, though, puts the Rebels in a letdown spot traveling to El Paso, Texas, to take on UTEP of Conference USA.
The Rebels are only 2-14 in their last 16 road matchups. Failure to win away meetings is a big reason why UNLV hasn’t played in a bowl game in 10 years. It remains to be seen if new UNLV coach Barry Odom can fix the Rebels’ road woes.
UTEP returns home after consecutive road games against Power Five conference teams Arizona and Northwestern. The Miners were actually a road favorite in a loss against Northwestern.
They have won five of their past six home games, including defeating Boise State last season.
UNLV’s starting quarterback Doug Brumfield suffered a first-quarter injury against Vanderbilt and is questionable. If he can’t go, redshirt freshman Jayden Maiava would make his first road start.
Colorado @ Oregon
BEST BET: Oregon -21 (-110)
DraftKings • WAGER 1 Unit
Deion Sanders and Colorado have been the biggest college football story this season, knocking off TCU, Nebraska and Colorado State to go 3-0. Now, though, reality steps in with the start of Pac-12 play.
The Buffaloes don’t have the defense, nor the pass protection, to stay within three touchdowns of 10th-ranked Oregon. Only eight teams surrender more yards per game than Colorado, which gives up 460.3.
Colorado is coming off a brutal overtime victory against in-state rival Colorado State, losing its star two-way player, Travis Hunter, in the process.
The Buffaloes had to deal with plenty of distractions because Hunter was injured on a cheap shot that drew national scorn and death threats to the Colorado State player who unnecessarily hit Hunter. So focus could be an issue. Oregon, on the other hand, just had an easy 55-10 win against Hawaii.
Led by Bo Nix, the Ducks rank second in points and third in yardage. Defensively, they rank 31st in fewest yards allowed per game.
Akron @ Indiana
BEST BET: Under 46.5 (-110)
bet365 • WAGER: 1 Unit
Not only are both of these teams weak offensively, but they each play at a slow tempo.
Akron was held to three points against Kentucky last week in its first step-up game. The Zips rank in the bottom-eight of 133 FBS schools in points, total yards and rushing yards.
Indiana held Ohio State to 23 points, Indiana State to a touchdown and Louisville to 21 points. Meanwhile, Akron’s two quarterbacks, DJ Irons and Jeff Undercuffler, have a combined touchdown-to-interception ratio of three-to-four.
The Zips’ strength is their 26th-ranked run defense. The run-oriented Hooisers will provide a test, and quarterback Tayven Jackson is a dual threat. He has only one touchdown pass, though.
Akron and Indiana each rank in the bottom-25 as far as pace, so this has all the makings of a slow, methodical, play-for-field-position type of game. That is the perfect formula for an Under.
CFB Week 4 Betting Prediction Leans
Duke @ Connecticut
BET LEAN: Connecticut +22 (-110)
BetRivers Sportsbook
Connecticut is getting better in Year 2 of the Jim Mora era. The Huskies have covered eight of their last 12 games, so I would rather take points with Duke than lay a big number.
The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS the past four times as road chalk. It’s the Blue Devils’ first road game, and they have Notre Dame at home on deck.
Mississippi @ Alabama
BET LEAN: Alabama -7 (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook
I’m buying low on Alabama. The Crimson Tide had won 21 straight games in Tuscaloosa before getting upset by Texas. They are 103-9 at home under Nick Saban.
Mississippi is 3-0, but it has played a fairly easy schedule having met Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.
The Rebels have only two takeaways. Meanwhile, Alabama has dominated this series, winning in each of the last seven years. The Crimson Tide’s winning margin against the Rebels the past six seasons is 33.1 points.
Ohio @ Bowling Green
BET LEAN: Under 45 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Ohio has gone Under in each of its four games, scoring 17 or fewer points in three of them. The Bobcats are averaging 16.8 points and rank 114th in total yards. Bowling Green held Michigan to just 312 total yards last Saturday, but the Falcons have serious offensive woes, too, like Ohio.
Their starting quarterback, Connor Bazelak, missed the Michigan game because of a leg injury, and backup QB Camden Orth has also suffered an injury, forcing walk-on Hayden Timosciek to get snaps.
Eastern Michigan @ Jacksonville State
BET LEAN: Jacksonville State -6 (-108)
Unibet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Jacksonville State went 9-2 last season, scoring at least 34 points in nine of those games. But the Gamecocks have something to prove moving into FBS status this season. They should easily beat Eastern Michigan by more than a touchdown at home.
Eastern Michigan only beat UMass at home by two points last week. The Eagles rank 129th in total yards and 112th in total defensive yards, so they are bad on both sides of the ball.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
