After 57 bets over the first three weeks of college football, I have netted 7.65 units on my best college football bets made in this column or logged into my BetStamp Account (@BoogieDownCFL).
For Week 4, we have the toughest college football slate to handicap yet. More information is known about all the teams, leading to the lines becoming more efficient.
Luckily there are still a few gems to be found mainly from people overreacting to what we have seen so far.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 19 at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 31-25-1, +16.1% Return on Investment, +4.4% Closing Line Value
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State Best Bet
Coastal Carolina -2 (-110) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 Units
Who needs to watch a Thursday night football game between two mediocre Steelers and Browns teams when there are two college football games with a favorite of three points or less?
My favorite of the pair of college football games is the Fun Belt game between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State. The rapper Ludacris might be an alum of Georgia State, but it would be ludicrous to think that Coastal Carolina won’t cover the spread.
Both teams like to run the ball as Coastal Carolina has the ninth-highest rushing play percentage in the FBS, and Georgia State has the 17th-highest rushing play percentage. The difference is on defense where Coastal Carolina allows only 3.2 yards per carry and Georgia State allows 3.7.
Against a run-heavy Army team, Coastal won 38-28 as 1.5-point favorites. Thursday against Georgia State, I expect a similar result and would bet Coastal Carolina up to -2.5.
Nevada vs Air Force Best Bet
Under 49.5 Points (-112) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
On Friday night, I don’t know which is the biggest degenerate move - betting on the Nevada and Air Force game or betting on the CFL game between Hamilton and Montreal. You can call me a degenerate because I’m betting on both games.
For the Mountain West Conference affair between Nevada and Air Force, I expect a low-scoring game that goes Under the 49.5-point total. Last week, Air Force lost 17-14 as a 16.5-point favorite against a similar conference opponent in Wyoming when the total was set at 47 points.
What makes Nevada similar to Wyoming is that they are not that good at scoring and occasionally, their defense performs well. Only against Incarnate Word in a fluke upset did Nevada have a poor defensive performance this season.
Air Force, despite its name, has a run-heavy offense. The Wolfpack allow only 2.8 yards per carry, which is 21st in the country. I expect the Falcons to win, but it might not be the ugly blowout that we are expecting.
At 49.5-points, the Under is worth a play, and I would bet it up to 47.5.
Clemson vs Wake Forest Best Bet
Clemson -7 (-110) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The only game that I think is a true steal this weekend is between Clemson and Wake Forest. In the offseason, Clemson was a -14.5-point favorite. What happened in the last month to merit giving the Demon Deacons 7.5 points?
Wake Forest started off the season ranked, and they have beaten their three cupcake opponents to start the season. In all three games, Wake Forest was favored by at least two touchdowns.
What is noteworthy is that Wake Forest only won 37-36 last weekend against Liberty after stopping a two-point conversion. If Liberty went for the extra kick and then won in overtime, Clemson would likely be a larger favorite going into this weekend.
The Tigers, like the Demon Deacons, have only played cupcakes so far, but based on their past track record of success, they shouldn’t have any trouble beating Wake Forest.
Betting Clemson at -7 points right now is the best play to make as 7.5% of CFB games are decided by exactly seven points. If this line moves, which I suspect it will, this will give you great closing line value as a bettor.
This is a good spot for betting on a Clemson team that is rarely favored by single digits, and I would take their spread up to -9.5.
Florida vs Tennessee Best Bets
Florida +11 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Florida +320 Moneyline at Betway
WAGER: .5 Units each
This weekend’s game between Florida and Tennessee is a great buy-low and sell-high opportunity for bettors. The Gators have played poorly in their last two games against Kentucky and South Florida, but is that enough to make them double-digit underdogs this weekend?
Over the offseason, BetRivers set Tennessee as a -3.5-point favorite in this game. When DraftKings opened this game Sunday afternoon, Tennessee was a seven-point favorite. Now, the Volunteers are 11-point favorites.
Betting Tips Podcast
Listen to Kevin Davis’ new podcast on the Hammer Betting Network.
The debut episode of #90Degrees is LIVE!
This week, host @BoogieDownPicks is joined by @real_fats to discuss their favourite betting angles, along with breaking down some key indicators of future success in sports betting.
Check it out:
🟢 https://t.co/64jquNaLb6— Hammer Betting Network (@TheHammerHQ) September 23, 2022
All Florida has done to deserve this is nearly losing to South Florida and losing by 10 points to No. 8 Kentucky.
What has Tennessee done to deserve being a heavy home favorite against another ranked team? They nearly lost to Pitt in overtime to start the season, and their only two other wins came against cupcakes.
The Vols’ offense is run through quarterback Hendon Hooker, and the Gators’ pass defense has been decent this season. On the year, Florida has allowed only 6.4 passing yards per attempt and only 178 passing yards per game.
This is impressive when you consider that they played against strong Utah and Kentucky quarterbacks. If Florida’s passing defense delivers then they should cover and possibly win.
I would bet Florida up to +7.5 and +250 this weekend on the road in Knoxville against the Volunteers.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M Best Bet
Arkansas +115 Moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Last year, I learned my lesson. I picked Texas A&M to cover against Arkansas, and the Razorbacks won outright. After that upset, Razorback nation descended on my Twitter (@BoogieDownPicks) and trolled me better than any fan base ever has.
This year, I am betting on Arkansas to beat A&M. Over the summer, the Aggies were 6.5-point favorites against the Hogs at BetRivers. Now, they are only 2.5-point favorites based on what we have seen from Arkansas so far.
The Razorbacks opened the season beating a tough Cincinnati team, 31-24, and covering as an 8.5-point favorite against South Carolina in their 44-30 victory.
Arkansas’ offensive identity is a strong rushing attack led by quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Raheim Sanders. The 242-pound Jefferson and the 227-pound Sanders are very hard for opposing defenses to bring down.
Even though Texas A&M has a strong team this season, their rushing defense has been mediocre as they have allowed four yards per carry. The median CFB team this season has allowed the same yards per carry as the Aggies have.
If opposing teams like Miami and Appalachian State were able to establish the run against A&M, why shouldn’t Arkansas be able to?
I like Arkansas to win outright as a +115 underdog, and that would be my bet if the game is held today. Regardless, before placing a bet on this game, I am going to wait and see if I can grab a +3 Arkansas spread before game time, or else I will back the Hogs to win outright.
Miami Ohio vs Northwestern Best Bet
Northwestern -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both Miami Ohio and Northwestern are weak teams this season. Miami Ohio might be able to compete in the MAC this season, but that is only if quarterback Brett Gabbert returns from injury. Northwestern upset Nebraska to start the season, but they also lost as heavy favorites against Duke and Southern Illinois.
Even though the Wildcats don’t inspire much confidence this season, they have three things in their favor this weekend as 5.5-point favorites:
- They play in the Big Ten and Miami Ohio is in the much weaker MAC
- They play at home
- Miami Ohio’s replacement for Gabbert is a significant downgrade
Replacing Gabbert is freshman Aveon Smith. Last week against Cincy, Smith completed only 45% of his passes for 116 passing yards. Against Robert Morris, Smith threw for only 155 yards.
For all of Northwestern’s flaws this season, their passing defense has been decent. Against Smith, they should do well, and that is why I am holding my breath and backing the Wildcats to cover as a 6.5-point favorite.
I would bet them up to a touchdown favorite Saturday night.
More CFB Week 4 Bets I Like
- Toledo -116 Moneyline at BetRivers Sportsbook
- Texas -4.5 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
- Notre Dame Pick ‘Em +100 at Betway Sportsbook
- Appalachian State -7.5 (-110) at Betway Sportsbook
- Oklahoma -12.5 (-110) at
How To Bet College Football Week 4
Buy low and sell high
This week is a great opportunity to bet on underperforming teams playing against overperforming teams. The Florida and Tennessee game is a great opportunity for deploying this strategy.
Look for overreactions based on small sample sizes
Before the season starts, some sportsbooks have Game of the Year (GOY) lines where bettors can bet games weeks or months in advance. Look at games where the line this week is significantly different than where it was before the season started.
The Notre Dame vs UNC and Clemson vs Wake Forest games are great examples of games that have noticeably different lines as we get closer to kickoff.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
