Last week was a strange football week for me. Most of my bets beat the closing line, yet most of my bets lost.
For this week, I am back to the grill again with my best Week 2 CFB bets.
With every team having at least one game in the books, this is the week to figure out who is under or overreacting to last week’s results.
Below, check out my best college football bets for this week.
- Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 7-11-1, -13.5% Return on Investment, +5.3% Closing Line Value
All college football odds are current as of noon ET on Sept. 6, 2022, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
South Carolina vs Arkansas Best Bet
Arkansas -7.5 (-111) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 units
Last week, I was all over Cincinnati on the road against Arkansas and was wrong. The Razorbacks handled Cincy, a team that was undefeated during the regular season last year. They closed as six-point favorites, and they covered.
This week, the Hogs have opened as only 7.5-point favorites at home. Not only is Cincinnati more than 1.5-points better than South Carolina, but based on Arkansas’ performance last week, they should be 12.5-point favorites against the Gamecocks.
Arkansas is a hostile place to play for any opponent, and last week, the fans caused Cincinnati to commit penalties and miss field goals. South Carolina is no cupcake of an opponent, but they are outmatched in this spot by a Razorbacks team that could finish the season in the top 10 this year.
I would take Arkansas up to -10 in this spot.
Marshall vs Notre Dame Best Bet
Under 51.5 Points (-105) at BetWay Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 units
Notre Dame on the road against Ohio State defied expectations last week. As a 17-point underdog against a National Championship contender, they were competitive all game and lost by only 11 points.
Most impressively, the Fighting Irish limited Ohio State quarterback and Heisman Contender C.J. Stroud to 223 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Notre Dame is favored by nearly three touchdowns against Marshall, but there is a different angle to play if you like the Fighting Irish. I am marshaling my bankroll behind an Under this week.
The Thundering Herd love a short passing game, but Marshall is outclassed by a strong Notre Dame defense that contained a Heisman candidate last week. I see Notre Dame winning a low-scoring game this weekend, and I would bet the Under up to 49.5 points.
Virginia vs Illinois Best Bet
Illinois -4 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 units
Illinois manhandled Wyoming in Week 0 and narrowly lost against Indiana in Week 1. How they are only 4-point favorites this week is beyond me.
In Bret Bielema’s second season as head coach, the Fighting Illini are starting to hit their stride. Ilinois prefers to utilize running back Chase Brown, and Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito has emerged as a decent quarterback.
Against a Virginia defense that was last in the ACC in rushing yards allowed last year, Illinois should be able to establish the run this weekend. The Cavaliers have a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Brennan Armstrong, but Illinois allowed only 32 rushing yards last week against Indiana.
Illinois should win by about a touchdown this week, giving the line a little wiggle room if it goes up to -6.5.
Old Dominion vs East Carolina Best Bets
Old Dominion +13.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Old Dominion +420 Moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: .5 units on each
In a Week 1 that was short on upsets, Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, and East Carolina narrowly lost to NC State. After defying expectations as a group of five schools against ACC teams, both Old Dominion and East Carolin face each other this weekend.
How Old Dominion is close to a two-touchdown underdog is surprising to me. The Monarchs limited Virginia Tech quarterback Grant Wells to 193 passing yards and four interceptions last week.
Last week against NC State, East Carolina attempted 41 passes and only 26 rushing plays. Old Dominion should contain a pass-heavy East Carolina offense to keep the game close or potentially win.
I would bet the Old Dominion spread up to +10 and the moneyline up to +280.
Northern Illinois vs Tulsa School Best Bet
Northern Illinois +192 Moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 units
Last year, I made bank on Northern Illinois. I bet them at +30000 to win the MAC, and I cashed my biggest futures ticket ever.
This week, I am tapping the Huskies’ gold mine again as road underdogs against Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricanes found a way to give up 40 points to an offensively challenged Wyoming team in a double-overtime game. Against a dynamic Northern Illinois offense, Tulsa should have a tougher time.
This season, Northern Illinois returns four of five offensive line starters from an offensive line that averaged the fourth-most rushing yards per game. The Huskies should run through Tulsa’s defense like Drano, but Tulsa can put up points as well.
In what should be a high-scoring thriller, the Huskies could win, and I would take them to win outright up to +140.
Georgia Southern vs Nebraska School Best Bet
Nebraska -21 (-110) at BetWay Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 units
Of all the coaches that are on the hot seat in the country, Nebraska Head Coach Scott Frost has the hottest seat. Not only has Nebraska underperformed with him as head coach, but the Huskers lost as 12-point favorites against Northwestern to start the season.
What could get Frost off the hot seat? A blowout win against Georgia Southern at home.
With a tough Big Ten conference schedule looming, Georgia Southern is the only remaining cupcake left. The Eagles last season had a triple-option offense. This season they have a new head coach in Clay Helton, who is moving to a spread offense.
Generally, triple-option teams transitioning to new offensive schemes struggle in the first season. The offensive linemen were recruited for a different scheme, and they have a tougher time blocking for passing.
This is a great opportunity for a Big Ten team like Nebraska to run up the score at home. I like the Huskers in this spot at -21 and all the way up to -23.5.
How To Bet College Football Week 2
Week 1 lines were more accurate than usual
Usually, Week 1 lines are not close to the result in College Football. Teams have turnover and new coaching, which makes it hard to make lines. This year, the Week 1 lines were closer than usual to the final game result.
Expect more variance for Week 2.
Expect a double-digit underdog to win outright
The first month of College Football is filled with lopsided non-conference games. Frequently in these games, a +400 moneyline underdog or better wins outright. This is the week where we should see some chaos in college football.
Don’t overreact to Week 1
One danger of handicapping a small sample size sport like college football is in overreacting to Week 1 scores. Sometimes, teams have a bad day. For Week 2, find teams that overperformed in Week 1 and see if they are in a spot where they should revert to the mean.
- Read more about how to bet on college football.
