Last week, I went 2-1 on my Best Bets thanks to Air Force and North Carolina State victories, but I finished the week 3-4.
I again failed to make an Iowa Over work. The Hawkeyes had totals of 25.5, 33.5, 27.5, 32, 30.5, 34 and 38.5 during their past seven games and went Under in each.
I’m involved in the Michigan-Iowa Big Ten Championship Game, but I won’t be touching the total as the Wolverines continue to push their way up the 2024 CFB National Champion odds.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 38-47-2
CFB odds used in these betting tips are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, at 11:30 p.m. ET
CFB Week 14 Best Bets
Georgia vs Alabama
BEST BET: Georgia -5.5 (-115)
FanDuel • WAGER: 2 Units
This comes down to the eye test for me; and my eyes tell me Georgia.
Alabama has flaws. It took a 31-yard touchdown pass from Jalen Milroe to Isaiah Bond on a fourth-and-goal with 32 seconds remaining for the Crimson Tide to sneak past Auburn, 27-24, last Saturday.
Georgia is unbeaten, and all of the Bulldogs’ victories were by at least a touchdown. Alabama lost at home to Texas by double-digits, while the Crimson Tide only beat Auburn and Arkansas by three points each and South Florida, 17-3, as a 34.5-point favorite.
Georgia toyed with a few of its opponents, but the Bulldogs stepped up when facing their strongest competition, defeating four Top 25 teams by an average of 27.5 points. So much for the Bulldogs not having played anybody.
The statistics back up Georgia, too. The Bulldogs average 7.3 yards per play, which ranks fifth in the nation. Alabama averages 6.5 yards a play, which rates joint-27th. On defense, the Bulldogs give up 4.8 yards a play, ranking joint-12th. Alabama allows 4.9 yards a play, which is 17th.
Boise State vs UNLV
BEST BET: Boise State -2 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Kudos to Barry Odom, who in his first year as UNLV’s head coach led the Rebels to a 9-3 record. The Rebels were a combined 7-17 the previous two years.
However, I don’t see the Rebels beating Boise State in this Mountain West Football Championship game.
Although it will be played in Las Vegas, the Rebels do not have a strong home-field advantage. UNLV has never played in the Mountain West title game.
Boise State, though, has the needed big-game experience. This marks the Bronco’s sixth appearance in the past seven years.
Boise State is peaking, while the Rebels’ confidence is down after losing 37-31 at home to San Jose State last Saturday. The Rebels had been playing above their heads all year, but it caught up to them in the regular-season finale.
Morale is way up for the Broncos under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson, with Boise State 2-0 since firing Andy Avalos.
The Broncos have two excellent running backs in Ashton Jeanty and George Holani – even though the latter missed six games – and the Rebels are mediocre on defense, ranking 83rd in defensive total yards and 67th in run defense.
Louisville vs Florida State
BEST BET: Louisville +2.5 (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 2 Units
Florida State shouldn’t be favored against Louisville with Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles were fortunate to escape Florida, 24-15, last week with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, who completed less than half of his passes for just 134 yards and no touchdowns.
Louisville is well coached and is strong against the run, ranking 11th in rush defense. This is key because the Seminoles have to rely on running back Trey Benson far more now with Travis sidelined.
Not having Travis also hurts Florida State’s star wide receivers in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. Florida State has to play much more conservatively minus Travis, and this will be only Rodemaker’s third college start.
Despite a loss to Kentucky last week, the Cardinals won’t lack motivation. Not only do they have a chance for revenge after a 35-31 home loss to Florida State last season, but they can earn their first Atlantic Coast Conference title and secure a spot in a major bowl game – probably the Orange Bowl – with a victory.
Louisville is 9-1 when picking up 100 or more rushing yards. Jawhar Jordan showed he was past his hamstring injury by rushing 17 times for 67 yards and two touchdowns against Kentucky.
Jordan has rushed for 1,076 yards on the season, and Isaac Guerendo provides the Cardinals with a second good running back.
The Cardinals have proved they can step up in class, beating then-ranked No. 11 Notre Dame and Duke when the Blue Devils were ranked in the Top 25.
CFB Week 14 Betting Prediction Leans
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (Big 12 Title Game) @ Arlington, Texas
BET LEAN: Texas -14.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Texas generally has played down to its level of competition. But the Longhorns (11-1) win in impressive fashion when they need to, as they did against Alabama on the road. They also defeated Kansas and Texas Tech by a combined 97 points.
Despite their outstanding record, the Longhorns are not a lock to get into the playoffs, so they have motivation to run up a score like they did in their 57-7 victory against Texas Tech last Saturday.
Oklahoma State closed its regular season going 7-1, but there are some red flags, with a 45-3 road loss to Central Florida and a two-overtime win against BYU as a 17-point favorite this past Saturday among them.
The Cowboys have been led by running back Ollie Gordon, but Texas ranks No. 4 in run defense. The Cowboys are going to be in trouble having to play from behind.
Michigan vs. Iowa (Big Ten Title Game) @ Indianapolis
BET LEAN: Iowa +23.5 (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Wolverines still might be celebrating their win against Ohio State last week. That, and not this Big Ten title game, was their biggest game of the season, so a letdown could be in store.
Iowa can hang in there because of its elite defense. Only three teams permit fewer points per game than the Hawkeyes, who hold foes to 12.2 points.
The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented, even calling 32 run plays in a row against Penn State. Keeping the clock moving like that is another benefit when taking this many points.